Shannon Deery: Focusing on the numbers a dangerous game for Merlino

James Merlino rushed to point out the 21 leaks from quarantine across the country, but playing the numbers game is dangerous for the state government.

Numbers can always be massaged to suit. Which is why Acting Premier James Merlino was so quick to reach for a few in his defence of another suspected hotel quarantine breach on Tuesday.

Merlino rushed to point out that yes, Victoria may have failed again, but it was just the latest in 21 infection leaks from quarantine sites across the country.

They included three in the last month: one in South Australia and two in Western Australia.

But it’s a dangerous game, and Victoria hardly has winning numbers.

Since March last year, Victoria has suspended its quarantine program three times, and tried four times to get it right.

Victorians have been locked down four times, billions of dollars have been wiped from the economy and thousands of businesses have closed.

Most tragically of all, 801 people died as a direct result of another quarantine breach.

Compare that to NSW where there have been almost four times as many returned travellers, for far fewer hassles.

Almost $20 million was spent on an inquiry that was to sort out Victoria’s horror quarantine run.

It made 81 recommendations which the government committed to implementing in some way, even if that meant handballing them to the national cabinet for consideration.

Acting Premier, James Merlino. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

One of those included the key recommendation to consider home quarantine as a wider option for returned travellers. One wonders whether accepting that recommendation may have avoided this current outbreak, or simply brought it on earlier.

A rush to put the first quarantine program in place meant too many critical considerations were overlooked.

Understaffing within the now extinct Department of Health and Human Services left it unprepared to handle a pandemic. The decision not to appoint chief health officer Professor Brett Sutton as state controller to guide the ­response was also blamed.

An oversight of the ventilation system saw coronavirus leak from quarantine again the second time around.

Much less user error, but error nonetheless.

Either way, when international flights returned to Melbourne on April 7 it seemed only a matter of time until lockdown 4.0.

Merlino promised a much improved system.

“We’ve taken the action and time necessary to ensure we have the most rigorous quarantine system possible in place to protect against these highly infectious, rapidly changing variants of concern,” he said.

“The challenges of this virus will be with us for some time to come, that’s why we’ve listened to the advice of experts and made the necessary changes to ensure we’re keeping Victorians safe.”

Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

The government has long remarked that the hotel quarantine program can never be without risk.

But that rhetoric has increased over recent months as it has fought for commonwealth approval for its dedicated quarantine site.

The government has waved the white flag on hotel quarantine and admitted it can’t work.

An agreement with the feds to build a dedicated site is a step in the right direction.

But it’s at least six months off before the first guest lands in Melbourne and is bussed to purpose-built accommodation in Tullamarine or Avalon.

And until then the state government needs to come up with a better strategy for dealing with leaks than simply shutting down the state.

Since the rush to lock us down last month, the government has looked all over for someone to blame.

The feds, fairly, were attacked for their bungling of the vaccine rollout. South Australia copped it too, for the leak out of its hotel quarantine system that made its way here.

But the finger-pointing and blame game saw Victorian authorities failing to take a look inward.

Merlino might want to keep quoting numbers. But continued restrictions and lockdown risk seeing Victoria and Victorians ending up second best.