Rolling coverage: 14 cases, no new deaths, hopes fade for easing of restrictions next week
Victoria is unlikely to take a big step out of lockdown on October 19 as Premier Daniel Andrews warned coronavirus cases were were not moving in the right direction. It comes as the Box Hill Hospital cluster continues to grow and the source of the outbreak remains unknown.
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Victoria recorded 14 new coronavirus cases and no new deaths overnight.
The rolling average now sits at 9.5 for metropolitan Melbourne and 0.4 for regional Victoria.
There are 192 active cases. Six of the latest 14 cases are linked to known outbreaks and complex cases.
There are 42 active cases in aged care settings.
Twenty-one Victorians are in hospital, one is receiving intensive care and none are on ventilators.
Nineteen healthcare workers are among the active cases.
There are now five active cases in regional Victoria — all in the Mitchell Shire
There have been 10 mystery cases recorded in the two weeks leading up to October 7.
Premier Daniel Andrews has warned the state is now unlikely to ease restrictions as planned on October 19, with infections in Melbourne not heading in the direction needed to match the threshold of five cases per day.
But he said some restrictions would still be eased and that no decisions had yet been made on what rules would be changed.
“I think it is unlikely that we will be able to take as eager steps as we would have hoped to take next Sunday — big steps,” Mr Andrews said.
“There will be steps next Sunday, and they will be as broad and significant as they can possibly be,” he said.
“The tail of this second wave was always going to be stubborn and that is exactly the way it is panning out.
“The last thing that I will sign off on is doing what might be popular, and what might perhaps please some, but steps that are not safe, that will set us back.
“I understand and appreciate there are significant frustrations out there.”
Mr Andrews said there were no “shortcuts” to suppressing the virus.
He said mystery cases would be a key focus over the coming week.
“It is in no way warranted for people to be despondent or for people to lose any sense of hope, this strategy is working, but you have got to do it properly,” he said.
“Otherwise we will have literally five minutes of sunshine and will be pinballing back and forth in and out of restrictions all summer and all 2021,” he said.
The Premier denied Victoria would be under stage four well into November.
“I said earlier on and I have said many, many times just because we all wanted to be over — and of course we do, of course we do — we cannot just pretend that it is when the data tells us that it is not,” he said.
“We will have more announcements to make those announcements will be based on public health advice, based on a thorough consideration of all of these issues and the day for those announcements is not today or tomorrow but indeed next Sunday.”
The Premier said there was nothing in the past four weeks that had changed what had always been regarded as high-risk workplaces, high-risk behaviour.
“So for instance, going and spending time at people’s houses, in groups, multiple families inside for a period of time. That’s always been high risk, and it stays at high risk.
He refused to speculate on what rules might be changed next week.
POLICE FINE UP TO 20 PARTYGOERS
Birthday party rebels scaled rooftops to try to escape hefty fines when police shut down a gathering in the early hours of this morning.
The revellers will not only have sore heads but lighter wallets after police busted the gathering where music was heard blaring from a South Rd address about 1.10am.
As police approached they observed about 20 people inside the apartment not wearing masks or social distancing.
Realising the jig was up, several of the partygoers climbed onto the roofs of neighbouring businesses and fled.
Four people were located hiding on the roof of a neighbouring property and received a fine once they came down.
Overall, police identified 13 people who were found to be in breach of the directions issued by the Chief Health Officer and will receive a $1652 fine.
Police in the past 24 hours:
>Issued a total of 79 fines to individuals for breaching restrictions, including seven for failing to wear a face mask when leaving home for one of four approved reasons.
>Fined 11 people at vehicle checkpoints across the state.
>Checked 26,185 vehicles at vehicle checkpoints.
>Conducted 1934 spot checks on homes, businesses and public places across the state.
Overall, a total of 489,720 spot checks have been conducted since March, 21.
MORE WASTEWATER TESTING, FOCUS ON MENTAL HEALTH
Health Minister Martin Foley said the government would expand its wastewater testing program as it looked to further clamp down on outbreaks as they happen.
“Victoria will increase its wastewater testing surveillance program for viral fragments of coronavirus from Monday for a further 10 regional sites, bringing that to 40 sites across Victoria,” he said.
“We want to make sure that as we expand this in regional Victoria, and Melbourne Metro, it gives the community the assurance that, in addition to the tens of thousands of Victorians every week that get the nasal swab and increasingly other forms of testing, that we have got the testing area covered.”
Mr Foley also thanked residents in Kilmore and Chadstone for coming forward to get testing as clusters had emerged.
Saturday is World Mental Health Day, and Mr Foley said this was still a major issue for those affected by the pandemic.
“We have seen a 5.7 per cent increase (on the same period last year) in potential self-harm and suicide ideation presentations in our emergency departments,” he said.
“This has come down substantially from the peak of the second wave and is in line with areas that we saw earlier in the first wave.
“For young people, that category of presentations, as it has been throughout the pandemic, is substantially higher.
“Lower than what it was ... people under 17 years of age receive a 31% increase for presentations compared to the same period last year.”
Mr Foley said the pandemic provided an opportunity to reform the mental health system as part of the states recovery effort.
BOX HILL HOSPITAL CLUSTER GROWS
Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton says the coronavirus cluster at Box Hill Hospital has now risen to 10 cases, with work still under way to determine how the outbreak started.
Of these, five cases are from a family being added on Saturday.
“All close contacts of the Box Hill staff are quarantined,” he said.
“This is how you stop a cluster from expanding.
“All staff on the COVID ward have been asked to seek testing and isolate pending those results and non-close contact staff can return once they obtain negative results.”
Prof Sutton said he was hopeful the Kilmore virus outbreak was under control, with six cases linked to the Oddfellows Cafe at the centre of the cluster.
“The way to end these clusters is to do exactly what Kilmore are doing,” he said.
“To have 750 people test, to have 300 people quarantined as full households.
“I am sure in a week or two’s time, we will talk about Kilmore having no new cases and in a couple of weeks’ time, hopefully no active cases whatsoever.
“So the strategy for these community outbreaks is exactly what’s happening in response to Chadstone, Box Hill and Kilmore.”
PREMIER ADDRESSES HOTEL QUARANTINE PHONE RECORDS
Premier Daniel Andrews has knocked back calls he hand over his phone records, and those of other senior members of government, without being prompted by the hotel quarantine inquiry.
He said he would assist with the probe if asked but did not want to “interfere” with the process by releasing the information unless asked.
“I’m not going to be interfering in the work of that inquiry,” he said.
“If they seek any information, that information or any other information, then they only need to make a request.
“They have not and if they do, I have been pretty clear about what the answer will be.”
EPIDEMIOLOGISTS SAY STATE UNLIKELY TO HIT TARGET
Outdoor dining, larger public gatherings and changes to the 5km rule could be rolled out from October 19 even if the state does not meet its 14-day average, epidemiologists have said.
Experts have warned the state is now unlikely to reach an average of five coronavirus cases per day in time but some restrictions could still be safely eased.
It comes as Victoria recorded 11 new infections on Friday and authorities raced to contain outbreaks in Kilmore and Box Hill.
Epidemiologist Professor Nancy Baxter, who leads the Melbourne University’s School of Population and Global Health, said the odds were against the state meeting the Step 3 threshold.
Numbers would continue to fluctuate now that cases were low.
“Melburnians are extremely good at lockdown … We’re at the point where the contact tracing and getting a handle on transmission is what we need to perfect,” she said.
Prof Baxter said authorities should allow more social activity with the lowest risk possible and consider asking contacts of close contacts to self-isolate to jump on outbreaks.
“If groups of people social distance and wear masks outdoors, there is never zero risk but the risk is much lower,” she said.
“I don’t know how much sense the 5km rule makes … Given the primary source of this is now workplaces and households.”
Professor Peter Collignon, from the Australian National University’s Medical School, said it appeared the 5km movement limit could safely be removed.
“I’m not sure how much extra benefit you get from the 5km rule once you get really low levels,” he said.
“It will have some effect but you have to weigh up the economic and social costs.”
University of Melbourne professorial fellow in epidemiology Tony Blakely said Victorians were set for a “nerve wracking” week watching the numbers as children returned to school.
He said his preference was that mystery cases were at 10 per cent of cases, or below 10 in total, by October 19.
“Given our most important neighbouring state (New South Wales) has fallen off the elimination trail, its not as justified for us to stay in lockdown and get the numbers really low,” he said.
“We cant stay in this type of lockdown with case loads as they are now.”
There are 17 Victorians in hospital, one is in intensive care but not on a ventilator.
Six of the 11 new cases were linked to known outbreaks, with the latest Kilmore case a casual contact at the Oddfellows Cafe and not a staff member.
More than 600 people have been tested in Kilmore in the past three days.
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