Reasons behind Victoria’s latest coronavirus spike revealed
After declining new case numbers it appeared Victoria may have passed its latest coronavirus peak – until Thursday delivered a sobering new record of 723 cases. Here’s what went wrong.
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After consecutive days with declining COVID-19 infection numbers it appeared Victoria may have passed the peak of its latest wave of coronavirus – until Thursday delivered a sobering new record of 723 cases.
What has gone wrong for Melbourne to again face a spike in infections, and what does it mean for the state?
WHY ARE DAILY COVID-19 INFECTION NUMBERS GOING UP AGAIN?
Massive outbreaks in nursing homes, abattoirs and food processing businesses, as well as some transport and delivery warehouses are being blamed for driving the latest and biggest jump in daily infections.
“There will be significant concern across the community and I am obviously concerned to see these numbers increase,” Premier Daniel Andrews said on Thursday.
“It is not unexpected in some ways, when you got have so many cases in private sector aged care, when you have so many cases connected to big outbreaks in specific workplaces.”
With it taking about five days for COVID-19 symptoms to emerge and drive a person to undergo a test, then another day or two for the result to come through, Thursday’s announcement of 723 cases is actually a reflection of people who caught the virus about a week ago.
It is now about seven to 10 days since the first positive cases emerged at various aged care homes and the Australian Lamb Company in Colac, which led to targeted testing among those connected to the sites.
Although a similar number of tests may be undertaken each day, when such outbreaks occur those tests become more focused and likely to be positive, creating sudden jumps and drops in case numbers days later.
HAS VICTORIA REACHED PEAK COVID-19?
It is too soon to know when the state will reach its peak of COVID-19 infections – or if it already has.
When Victoria recorded a then-record 532 cases on Monday, the state’s Chief Health Officer Prof Brett Sutton said: “Modelling with our effective reproductive number that I have seen most recently suggests that today should be the peak”
Then, despite a significant drop to 295 cases on Tuesday, Prof Sutton seemed to retreat from his summit statement: “I certainly wouldn’t say we have definitely passed the peak”.
With another record on Thursday, Premier Daniel Andrews conceded “One day’s data is not a trend. I can’t tell you where will be in another three weeks.”
While rollercoaster daily infections make it hard to pinpoint the peak, the experts’ optimism is based on a closer inspection of exactly who the new cases are.
Despite the overall cases lurching dramatically up and down because of new outbreaks, the number of community transmissions has remained stable, growing by about four per cent a day.
Even if the number of cases connected to outbreaks grows, authorities know most of the likely new cases are already in isolation so they will eventually die out.
Therefore, they will know the peak has passed when community transmission are under control, not overall COVID-19 cases.
WHAT IS THE R NUMBER, AND WHY IS IT SO IMPORTANT?
Victoria’s current R number – or effective reproduction number – is slightly above 1.
This means that on average every person in the state who currently has COVID-19 can be expected to transmit the virus to one more person.
At this rate, it means the state’s second wave will continue to grow slightly.
In the early stages of Melbourne’s second wave of coronavirus the R number reached 2.5 – meaning every new COVID-19 case passed their virus on to an average of two and a half others – causing infections to more than double.
Lockdowns and restrictions have almost brought effective reproduction under control, but with numbers Premier Daniel Andrews said any value of more than one was “far too high for us to see these numbers fall”.
“It is still hovering at around one, or just above,” Mr Andrews said.
“The problem you get into is when you have so many cases even an Ref of one – the number that each positive case infects – that will continue to see numbers within a band relatively stable, but not coming down.
“Until we can get only every second or every third person infecting someone else, we won’t see these numbers come down.”
ARE THERE ENOUGH CONTACT TRACERS?
More than 2100 people are now working in Victoria’s public health contact tracing team but, amid continuing reports of long delays, Premier Daniel Andrews on Thursday predicted it would soon grow further.
“It is a massive challenge. There is no disputing … it is a very, very significant challenge,” Mr Andrews said.
“I have always been clear that if more needs to be done it will be.
“If there is more recruitment, if there’s more people that need to some in, we will do that.
“But when you have this many positive cases it is a significant challenge.”
In recent weeks the Andrews Government has boosted it virus Detective force by introducing all centre staff, bankers and finally Defence Force personnel.
WILL LOCKDOWN BE EXTENDED?
Melbourne and Mitchell Shire residents are more than halfway through the planned six-week lockdown.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Mr Andrews held crisis talks on Thursday night about introducing tougher restrictions.
A New Zealand-style lockdown, which saw the closure of all businesses except for essential services, was discussed as one option.
When asked if there was any chance the current stage three restrictions would end as planned on August 19, Mr Andrews said case numbers are “far too high … unless everyone plays their part this lockdown will not end any time soon”.
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