New Covid waves to hit Victoria as virus moves between animals species overseas and mutates

Nearly 40 Victorians died of Covid on Thursday and Friday and a large number of people are hospitalised, as a top scientist warns winter looks grim. Here’s why.

While Covid is continually mutating to evade vaccines, boosters are still our best bet in the fight against the virus. Picture: Jason Edwards

More than 500 Victorians are now in hospital with Covid, with 24 in intensive care and 10 on ventilators as experts warn to expect new variant waves of the virus to hit over winter.

The Department of Health on Saturday said there were 509 Covid cases in hospital in Victoria

and 8,445 new cases were recorded on Friday.

And 16 people died on Friday aged in their 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s and 90s.

Twenty-two people died on Thursday, aged in their 30s, 70s, 80s and 90s.

It brings the total number of deaths in Victoria since the pandemic began to 3,480 and the total number of active cases in Victoria to 54,400.

It comes as experts warn Covid will keep mutating and “sidestepping” vaccines and immunity from past infection, with further variant virus waves likely to sweep Victoria this winter.

And fears are growing over Covid’s ability to move between animal species and mutate, with groundbreaking and as yet unpublished research showing the virus can make laboratory mice sick enough to lose a dangerous amount of weight.

The virus, which originated in bats, has also previously infected mink, deer and domestic cats.

Head of the molecular virology laboratory at Melbourne’s Doherty Institute Professor Damian Purcell said Covid was “a machine that seeks only an opportunity to transmit and spread”, and would keep spawning variants.

“Now that we’ve got so much virus washing around the place, it’s inevitable that … it’s going to keep on mutating. It’s mutating in ways that favour its transmission,” he said.

Every time the virus moved into a different animal species it made genetic changes, and there were likely “many, many” new Covid variants evolving in Africa that could make their way to Australia.

As Victoria enters its typically cold winter and people spend more time inside, the threat of Covid cases growing looms.

Victoria’s Department of Health this week revealed there was evidence of community transmission of new Omicron sub-variants in Victoria, with mutations detected in wastewater samples in metropolitan and regional Victoria.

New BA. 4 and BA. 5 strains have been detected at Melbourne Airport, in multiple residential catchments across Melbourne (with the highest levels in the outer southern and eastern suburbs) and in residential catchments in and around Geelong.

Sub-lineages of BA. 4 and BA. 2.12.1 have also been detected, albeit at very low levels.

Professor Purcell said disease “spill” between animals and humans made Covid mutations potentially endless, and new strains would continue to “sidestep” existing vaccines and immunity through past infection, making continual booster shots our best defence against the virus into the future.

And as Victoria enters its typically cold winter, and people spend more time together inside, the threat of an explosion in cases looms.

Australia’s Covid pandemic is “clearly not over (and) will roll on”, Professor Purcell said.

“I think winter could be quite challenging for us as a community. We’ve already seen that — despite pretty good protection from three doses of vaccine that most people have had — many, many people have succumbed to these most recent Omicron variants,” he said.

“We already know that other places in the world that are coming out of their winter have variants on top of the Omicron; Omicron, three and four and five … and they’re not protected by the immunity from Omicron one and two, so I think we can anticipate that we could see further waves in conjunction with winter, particularly in southern states where we’re sheltering indoors from cold rainy weather.”

New laboratory research into Covid in mice shows they can become so sick with the virus they lose a dramatic amount of weight.

More than 1740 Victorians died of Covid between January 1 to May 25 this year, with one third completely unvaccinated and 76 per cent not triple jabbed.

And Omicron claimed the most lives.

Exclusive data released to the Herald Sun reveals Covid killed 1,742 Victorians over the time period, with 558 deceased Victorians, or 32 per cent, unvaccinated or with an unknown vaccination status, 53 (three per cent) having had one vaccine dose, 720 (41 per cent) double vaxxed and 411 (24 per cent) triple vaxxed.

A Department of Health spokesman said it was vital to put the deaths in context as more than 5.1 million Victorians over the age of 16 were now double dosed while those unvaccinated numbered in the several hundreds of thousands, proving that per capita vaccinations did indeed save lives.

One third of the total Covid deaths this year were in people who had not been vaccinated at all — despite representing only five per cent of the overall Victorian population aged 12 and above, and just one per cent of Victorians aged over 65.

Of the 1742 deaths, 349 were genomically sequenced revealing 201 people died with the Omicron BA. 1 sub variant, 110 with the Omicron BA. 2 sub-variant and 38 with the B. 1.617.2 or Delta variant.

Victorians at risk of becoming very sick from Covid are now eligible for a fourth vaccine booster shot from GPs, pharmacies and state vaccination centres.

In addition to those already eligible for a “winter booster”, it is now recommended for people aged 16 to 64 who have a medical condition that increases the risk of severe Covid illness or

with disabilities and significant, complex or multiple health issues.