Coronavirus: Nearly half a million people may have had COVID-19 in Wuhan, a new study shows

China dramatically under-reported the number of coronavirus infections and deaths in Wuhan, a new study claims.

For months now, studies have suggested that China may have been fudging its figures of infections and deaths caused by COVID-19.

A study published on the preprint server medRxiv in June 2020 claims that the official Chinese statistics on COVID-19 cases or mortality may not be accurate.

The study looks at investigative media reports of crematory operations in Wuhan, the believed origin and epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic.

“The estimates of cumulative deaths, based on both funeral urns distribution and continuous full capacity operation of cremation services up to March 23, 2020, give results around 36,000, more than 10 times of the official death toll of 2,524,” states the report.

The authors continue, “Our study indicates a significant under-reporting in Chinese official data on the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan.”

A medical staff member from Jilin Province tears up during a ceremony before leaving as Tianhe Airport is reopened in Wuhan in China's central Hubei province. Picture: AFP

The magnitude of discrepancy between our estimates based on cremation related data and Chinese official figures in early February, the critical time for response to the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests the need to re-evaluate official statistics from China and consider all available and reasonable data sources for a better understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic.”

It comes as CNN also reports that an antibody study by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggests nearly half a million residents in Wuhan may have been infected with COVID-19.

That is also almost 10 times its official number of confirmed cases.

A man being tested for the COVID-19 novel coronavirus reacts as a medical worker takes a swab sample in Wuhan at the height of the pandemic. Picture: AFP

The study used a sample of 34,000 people and their blood serum in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province, as well as Beijing, Shanghai, and the provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Liaoning to estimate national COVID-19 infection rates.

The researchers found an antibody prevalence rate of 4.43 per cent for COVID-19 among residents in Wuhan, the population of which is 11 million.

Wuhan reported a total of only 50,354 confirmed cases of COVID-19, according to the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.

But 4.43 per cent of 11 million is 487,300.

The results of the study were revealed in a Chinese CDC social media post, according to CNN.

Officials in protective suits checking on an elderly man wearing a face mask who collapsed and died on a street near a hospital in Wuhan. Picture: AFP

Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the massive discrepancy could be related to the chaos that accompanied the aftermath of the first wave of the pandemic.

There is also the factor of asymptomatic cases, which would not have been reported but which would have shown up in the blood serum tests.

The outbreak is thought to have started in October 2019, and by January and February, patients with symptoms flooded Wuhan’s hospitals.

Many were told to go home and some ended up infecting family members, while others died at home without being officially recorded in the COVID-19 death tolls.

But underrecording may not be unique to China.

A woman wears a plastic water bottle with a cutout to cover her face. Picture: AFP

The New York State Department of Health estimated in March that one in seven New York adults had COVID-19 — about 10 times higher than the official account.

However, while New York over-estimated figures in the interest of public safety, critics say China’s tallies may be attached to a lack of transparency — or a will to stay optimistic.

However, China has not been without its whistleblower nationals.

Journalists who reported on the condition of hospitals in Wuhan which were being flooded with COVID patients have been censured by Beijing.

On Monday, local time, Zhang Zhan, a former lawyer who documented the outbreak at its height in Wuhan, was sentenced to four years in prison for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble”.

Former Chinese lawyer and citizen journalist Zhang Zhan as she broadcasts via YouTube, at an unconfirmed location in China. Zhang was jailed for four years for her reporting from Wuhan. Picture: AFP

According to credible sources, Ms Zhang had been subject to torture and ill-treatment during her detention and her health condition has seriously deteriorated.

Numerous Western nations have called for her to receive at least adequate medical assistance if not release.

Two other independent journalists, Li Zehua and Fang Bin, have also been detained following covering the pandemic in China.

But China hails its handling of the outbreak a success. Draconian lockdowns at the beginning of the pandemic and mass testing has allowed the country of 1.4 billion to contain the virus.

The Chinese CDC, meanwhile, also highlighted China’s victory in containing the virus when releasing the antibody study results on Monday.

Employees eating during lunch break at an auto plant in Wuhan in China's central Hubei province in March during the pandemic. Picture: AFP / China OUT

“The results of the study show that our country’s population has a low infection rate. It indicates that China has succeeded in controlling the epidemic with Wuhan as the main battlefield, and effectively controlled the large-scale spread of the epidemic,” the agency said.