Melbourne’s 14 day case average on track to drop below 50 this week ahead of Sept 28 target
Melbourne is on track to meet our target of falling below an average of 50 coronavirus cases a day this week. A leading epidemiologist said the next few days will be crucial for metropolitan Melbourne’s 14-day average.
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Melbourne’s 14-day case average is on track to drop below 50 this week, putting us on target to further reductions in restrictions.
Metropolitan Melbourne’s current 14 day average is 54.4, meaning the city region’s median will have to drop by at least 4.4 in the next two weeks to meet the September 28 target of between 30-50 cases.
Prof Catherine Bennett, Chair in Epidemiology at Deakin University, said that if cases remain steady, Melbourne’s daily should meet that target in a matter of days.
“Over this last week, our average is below 50 cases. The week before included some big numbers but once they drop out of our 14 day average, it will make another jump down, “ she told the Herald Sun.
“We should be tracking fairly comfortably and if we can maintain the numbers we’re seeing at the moment, in the 30s and 40s but hopefully more in the 30s, then that should further consolidate our position.
“Theoretically, in the next few days when we drop those big numbers and keep in the 30s, we will get down to the target this week.”
Included in Melbourne’s current rolling average are seven days that recorded over 50 cases.
Key dates include August 31 to September 5, when 65, 87, 110, 75, 72 and 62 cases a day were recorded respectively, meaning metropolitan Melbourne’s average should drop significantly when those dates are no longer included.
After that date range, there was only one day where over 50 cases were recorded – September 8, when 70 new cases were confirmed.
Melbourne will move to step two on September 28 but only if the daily average case rate is between 30 and 50 cases.
According to the DHHS, restrictions will not change before that date.
For metro Melbourne to move to step three on October 26 the statewide average must be less than five cases. There also has to be less than 5 cases with an unknown source in the last 14 days to ease restrictions.
Regional Victoria, which is now on step two of the government’s road map, has a current 14 day case average of 3.9.
Premier Daniel Andrews has already forecast they could move to step three this week if numbers remain low.
There were no new cases in regional Victoria recorded Monday.
In order to move to stage three, regional Victoria needs to record a daily average case rate less than 5 new cases and no new cases with unknown source over the previous 14 days.
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