Melbourne lockdown set to be extended again

Melbourne is set to stay in lockdown for at least another two weeks, with harsh restrictions expected into September.

Melbourne’s lockdown is almost certain to extend beyond Friday amid concerns about rising cases and a worsening coronavirus crisis in NSW.

Harsh restrictions are also likely to remain in place into September, as some government ministers and health officials fear stay at home orders may be needed for at least another fortnight if exposure sites and community transmissions don’t quickly nosedive.

But an infectious diseases expert said the lockdown ordered across Victoria on August 5 should soon start to bite, meaning those testing positive have limited movements or are in isolation already.

The NSW crisis continues to cause headaches across Australia, with almost 500 cases announced on Saturday and a growing recognition it could cause other states to bounce in and out of lockdowns until vaccination coverage soars.

Melburnians are being warned the latest lockdown is likely to be extended again. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Ian Currie

In a dramatic turn, the NSW government ordered all residents to stay at home in a snap statewide lockdown for seven days, despite earlier insisting that its current strategy would remain in place.

Victorian state ministers welcomed the news, but said it wouldn’t change Melbourne’s short-term issues.

“I can’t see a possibility of us getting out (of lockdown) next Friday,” one minister said.

Another said the NSW shift was “for the good of the country” and that unless the number of cases dried up in western and northern suburbs of Melbourne then harsh restrictions would be in place until September.

A third said the critical issue that would decide how quickly Melbourne could lift restrictions was that people were getting tested and getting positive results while in isolation.

“It’s about being confident that people returning positives are not creating new exposure sites.”

On Saturday, 21 new cases were reported with 11 in quarantine.

Of the 163 active cases now in the state, three people are in hospital and one is in intensive care.

Dozens of exposure sites were added to state lists, including a Richmond apartment block on Bosisto Street that was deemed a tier 2 site for a whopping 11 days — leaving residents mystified about the source of concerns.

Victoria’s seven-day rolling average hovers at about 17 cases — well above the average of five cases Victoria set to reopen in 2020 – and Burnet Institute epidemiologist Prof Michael Toole said it was unlikely restrictions would ease significantly on Thursday.

However, Prof Toole said there was a chance new daily cases could “drop off a cliff” quite quickly due to the fact Victoria entered lockdown so quickly after detecting the first signs of the latest outbreak.

Victoria recorded 21 new cases on Saturday with 11 in quarantine. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Luis Ascui

About 40 people are thought to have been infected with Covid before the lockdown was called and, with the virus having an incubation period of up to 14 days, Prof Toole said it would be the next few days when it was known how effective the stay at home measures had been.

“We are getting to the end of the incubation period for those people who got infected seven to 10 days ago,” he said.

“So we should see a decline in the next couple of days – but it surprises you sometimes.”

While all of Saturday’s 21 new cases were linked to known clusters, Prof Toole said the fact 10 had been circulating in the community underlined the importance of acting quickly to lessen the chances of a much more prolonged lockdown.

“Being out in the community during a lockdown is very different from being out in the community without a lockdown – they have basically been doing the essential things like going to a food shop and the chemist and not much else,” he said.

“Those 40 to 60 people who were infected before the lockdown haven’t been out spreading it all over the place.

“I think this will work, but I think in the next three months, until we can get the vaccination right up to the target at 70 or 80 per cent, we need to be prepared for more lockdowns. Particularly with what’s happening in New South Wales.“

On Saturday the Royal Women’s Hospital was listed as a Tier 2 exposure site, after a Covid-positive case visited the main entrance at the corner of Flemington Road and Grattan St, Parkville on August 6 between 7.25am to 8am and 10am to 10.35am.

Anyone who was there at those times must get tested and isolate until they receive a negative result.

A full list of 450 exposure sites is available online, and deputy secretary of contact tracing, Kate Matson, said this was a concern.

Glenroy was a particular focus, with 345 close contacts from the outbreak north of Melbourne.

The state’s engagement program did 1277 home visits on Saturday – a record for the state.