Magic vaccine number that will end Australia’s lockdowns

Australians will have to rely on fellow citizens in this age group to ensure we hit the all-important vaccination rate need to end harsh lockdowns.

Australia would need 70 per cent of people under 60 and 95 per cent of seniors vaccinated against Covid in order to open and avoid thousands of deaths, one of the nation’s leading research institutes has found.

Even then, face masks and some restrictions on gatherings would need to be reintroduced during danger periods to keep Covid-19 deaths below the annual flu toll.

Melbourne’s Burnet Institute, a world-leading medical research body, has undertaken modelling to help guide policymakers at the same time the Doherty Institute has done similar work for Australia’s national Covid cabinet.

Scott Morrison will today discuss vaccine targets proposed in the Doherty report with state leaders in an effort to reach a consensus on how to ease restrictions, prevent lockdowns and gradually reopen the borders.

high vaccinations rates

The Burnet’s modelling – which was provided to the Andrews Government earlier this week – projects that about 3000 Victorians would die from the virus each year if Australia was to “let it rip” and abandon all measures completely after reaching high vaccination levels.

However, it found that once 95 per cent of those over 60, 70 per cent of those aged 12-59, and 70 per cent of under-12s are vaccinated Australia could safely reopen its international borders – provided the number of deaths and hospitalisations were balanced with intermittent restrictions.

Because current Covid-19 vaccines do not offer 100 per cent protection, the Burnet’s head of modelling Nick Scott said it was not yet possible to have open borders, no restrictions and no deaths at the same time.

However, he said reaching the “95/70/70” vaccination levels could limit Victoria’s Covid deaths to a level of about 31 a year without resorting to lockdowns, border closures or the absence of major events.

“This gives us lots of hope,” Dr Scott said.

“It shows that we don’t need to be in the situation we are in forever. Once we get high vaccine coverage we don’t need to just keep pulling out the lockdown as soon as we get a few cases.

“We can actually just let it go for a little bit then slowly put the brakes on with a much more acceptable approach.”

Based on international data weighing up the effectiveness of Covid vaccines, as well as the impact of public health and distancing measures used in Victoria, the Burnet’s Covasim model provides several “acceptable” paths to reopen the country.

While the report says a highly vaccinated Victoria could manage five new Delta cases entering the state each day with contact tracing, it found measures would need to be introduced when average daily cases rose higher.

Rather than extreme measures such as lockdowns, the projections show masks, limiting outdoor gatherings to 50 and working from home where possible would be enough to address the risks during those periods.

Under the “light” restriction model, schools and entertainment venues could remain open, though pubs, restaurants and places of worship would need 4sq m density rules.

Major events such as the AFL grand final and concerts have not been included in the model, however it is expected they could continue during periods of higher daily cases provided plans were in place to limit the mixing of spectators.

Most crucially, Burnet deputy director Margaret Hellard said the higher Australia’s vaccination levels rose, public health measures would not be required as often.

“It is vital to have high levels of vaccine in the community because it protects people from severe disease related to Covid, but also it will impact on transmission,” Professor Hellard said.

“Once we have a high level of vaccination and we open up our borders, we need to understand that you may need to have some level of restriction.

“You can’t just say ‘we are all vaccinated, we’ll open our borders’. It has to be a combination of the two. This is us functioning in the world, this is going to visit family, this is going on holiday, this is us bringing in workers from the pacific region to pick fruit on our farms. These are the lives we live.”

Prime Minster Scott Morrison said targets proposed in the Doherty report were achievable. Picture: NCA NewsWire/Bianca De Marchi

The Prime Minister on Thursday said targets proposed in the Doherty report – yet to be publicly released – were achievable.

“That’s up to all of us to go and get vaccinated to achieve those,” he said.

“We want to be able to go forward. Countries that have launched into open have found themselves within days having to walk back. Now, we don’t want that.”

He said he was confident there would be “ample supply” of the vaccine over the next five months to ensure all Australians who wanted the jab would be able to access it by Christmas.

Mr Morrison said the Doherty modelling was being considered in conjunction with an economic analysis on the costs of lockdowns.

It comes as another organisation, the Grattan Institute, on Thursday released a report saying borders could reopen and lockdowns could end once 80 per cent of the population was vaccinated.

The institute’s modelling showed at this level, along with 95 per cent vaccination for the most vulnerable, severe cases would be rare while the virus remained in the community.

PATIENT FIGURES TO DETERMINE RESTRICTIONS

Counting only the number of Covid patients in hospital rather than new daily cases could significantly cut the time Australians spend living under restrictions when high vaccinations rates are achieved.

With the Covid vaccines lowering the chances of a jabbed person having a serious illness, health experts in the most vaccinated nations are reducing their focus on non-symptomatic or mild cases in their policy settings.

The latest long-term Covid-19 control modelling from Melbourne’s Burnet Insti­tute also finds that switching to hospitalisation rates as a trigger for restrictions would safely allow Victorians to spend less time under restrictions in the future.

However, Burnet deputy ­director Margaret Hellard warned Australia was still ­nowhere near the levels of vaccination required to make the switch away from counting total case numbers.

Once 70 per cent of people under 60 and 95 per cent of seniors vaccinated against Covid, Australia may be in a position to change its focus, the modelling finds.

It’s hoped when high vaccinations rates are achieved Australians well be less impacted by lockdowns. Picture: Jason Edwards

“One you are vaccinated, your proportion of people who will get sick and are hospitalised is markedly different to your number of cases,” Professor Hellard said.

“There are a number of countries who are asking the question, ‘do we look at the number of infections, or do we look at the impact of infections on hospitalisation’.

“But we have to reach high levels of vaccination before we can have the luxury of that conversation.”

According to the latest Burnet modelling, Victorians could still spend between 280 and 350 days a year under some restrictions despite having high vaccination rates if a seven-day average of daily case numbers continued to be used as a threshold.

But if the mild cases were ignored and the threshold was instead changed to having fewer than 100 Covid patients in the state’s hospitals, the modelling shows restrictions could only be needed for ­between 115 and 220 days.

“Without herd immunity if restrictions are lifted exponential growth resumes. However, using hospital usage as a trigger threshold for restrictions may lead to less overall time under restrictions while still achieving adequate health outcomes,” the report found.