Lockdowns may not be a part of future outbreak responses

Victorian chief health officer Brett Sutton is optimistic the state’s third lockdown may just be the last it has to endure.

The Holiday Inn cluster presented challenges for Victoria’s public health response. Picture: Ian Currie/NewsWire.

Further Victorian lockdowns may be avoided even if COVID-19 again escapes hotel quarantine after the lessons learned during the Holiday Inn outbreak.

Despite statewide restrictions being imposed amid fears the cluster had breached Victoria’s three-ring tracing system, all cases confirmed during the five-day lockdown period were close contacts already in isolation before the “circuit breaker” was imposed.

Having seen the success of contact tracing in containing the Holiday Inn outbreak, as well as subsequent exposures at a Coburg party, Victorian chief health officer Brett Sutton said the system should be strong enough to contain most future outbreaks of more infectious coronavirus variants.

“A three-ring principal of protection is the right way to go and it can deal with variants of concerns as well,” Prof Sutton said.

“There are circumstances where you need to pull out other tools — a short sharp lockdown or a circuit breaker.

Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton is optimistic the state will prevail over COVID. Picture: Darrian Traynor/Getty Images

“But the contacts of contacts, in addition to the primary close contacts, I think it can bring all of that risk under control through test, trace, isolate.”

Prof Sutton maintained the circuit breaker had been required due to the specific challenges thrown up by Holiday Inn outbreak.

Rather than breaching hotel quarantine through a single case, the initial outbreak saw six people infected with the B117 strain in a superspreading event, believed to be fuelled by a guest’s nebuliser.

It is understood the situation made it difficult for authorities to determine how much of the cluster’s acceleration was due to it being the more infectious UK strain, and how much was due to the number of cases it could spread through.

Health officials feared the virus had a strong chance of spreading further after it was found another 38 people — not already in isolation — were exposed to it at a Coburg party.

However, experience gained from the Coburg party which led to the lockdown may prevent the need for restrictions in the future.

Testing, tracing and isolating form the basis of Victoria’s coronavirus response. Picture: David Geraghty/NCA NewsWire

While six attendees have so far been infected with the UK strain, contact tracers were able to contain the spread when it was not given the extra boost of a nebuliser.

Professor Nancy Baxter, head of the University of Melbourne’s school of population and global health, said the fact a health worker and young child infected at the Coburg party circulated in the community showed lockdowns were an important insurance policy to support contact tracing.

However, Prof Baxter said more immediate action in shutting down the Holiday Inn and quarantining its entire workforce could have prevented the need for the “circuit breaker” shutdown.

Prof Baxter said it was unfortunate an attendee of the Coburg party initially returned a false-negative test as it would have given contact tracers a guide to isolate all guests, rather than shutting down the state.

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