How Australia could be free of lockdowns by summer

Australia could reach the 80 per cent adult vaccination rate by summer, but experts have questioned whether tying too many freedoms to that milestone is realistic.

Australia could reach the coveted 80 per cent adult vaccination rate just in time for summer, new modelling shows, but experts have questioned whether tying too many freedoms to that milestone is realistic.

Projections by Dr Chris Billington from Melbourne University show Australia could reach the 70 per cent adult vaccination rate on November 8 and 80 per cent on November 21.

Those milestones were adopted as key triggers for the loosening of restrictions by National Cabinet last Friday.

Holiday makers in Ibiza, Spain. While many parts of Europe have opened back up, Australia is waiting for its vaccination rates to increase. Picture: Zowy Voeten/Getty Images

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has suggested a 50 per cent vaccination rate – about where the US is right now – could be used to trigger some freedoms, but declined to specify what they might be.

Infectious diseases expert Professor Peter Collingnon from the ANU said Ms Berejiklian’s suggestion was “more realistic” than the 70 and 80 per cent vaccination targets, which were an “all or nothing view”.

Restrictions should be “proportional to the risk of spread and the consequences of that spread,” he said, and the turning of the seasons would play a role in that calculation.

“Winter is more of a risk than spring and early summer,” Prof Collingnon said. “Covid-19 can spread in summer, but less readily than in winter.”

Other modelling conducted by a team from Sydney University suggests easing restrictions too early or too liberally could be disastrous.

“Our model suggests that re-opening and ceasing lockdowns with under 50 per cent of the population fully vaccinated could generate around 10,000 cases a day across Australia,” team leader Professor Mikhail Prokopenko said.

“This part of the modelling was done on the previous, less contagious strain. The delta strain, as we know, is more contagious, so it could result in even more cases with a premature re-opening.”

Dr Chris Billington. Picture: Supplied

Professor Mikhail Prokopenko. Picture: Supplied

Similarly bleak predictions were made in the Doherty Institute modelling used by National Cabinet and released on Tuesday.

The Doherty team found that with a 50 per cent vaccination rate, infections could top 1.1 million and deaths could get to 10,000 within six months.

Countries such as the US and UK have loosened restrictions at far lower vaccination rates than 70 and 80 per cent, prompting some to call for Australia to follow their lead, but Prof Collingnon said such comparisons were “not legitimate”.

“We don’t want to be compared to a country with a huge death toll,” he said. “The US and UK had uncontrolled spread while we had minimal spread. It’s reasonable to compare us to New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and Singapore.”

With increased supplies of vaccines coming online, Prof Collingnon said he was hopeful Australia could achieve 75 per cent adult vaccination by mid October.

“There’s light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

Dr Billington’s projections of Australia’s vaccination rate is based on supply only, so it doesn’t take into account some of the human factors that could push back herd immunity milestones.

“Hesitancy or slackness certainly could limit the rate of uptake toward the end, but is hard to predict. So this model is very much a case of ‘what’s possible if we don’t have significant hesitancy and people go and get vaccinated when it’s their turn,’” Dr Billington said.

If the government were to include Australians aged 12-16 in the mass vaccine rollout program, the target 80 per cent date could still be reached on December 2, he added.

Nearly 41 per cent of people aged 16 and over have had one dose of vaccine and just over 19 per cent have had two doses, according to government figures.