Hospitals to be overrun with patients suffering other health conditions
As Victoria’s coronavirus curve flattens, the state’s hospitals are bracing to be swamped by a wave of patients who have let their serious conditions fester over the lockdown period — and the consequences could be deadly.
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Hospitals are set to be swamped by a wave of patients suffering serious conditions that have been left to fester during the coronavirus pandemic.
A concerning audit of doctor appointments across Victoria and NSW shows a looming crisis for patients and specialists dealing with deadly conditions including cervical cancer, diabetes and mental health issues.
The report follows warnings from Melbourne hospitals and Ambulance Victoria that patients suffering heart attacks, strokes and other severe conditions are risking their lives by refusing or delaying hospital treatment over fears of COVID-19.
With thousands of patients shunning screening or treatment for serious diseases since COVID-19 peaked in March, hospitals are being warned to brace for an increase in patients becoming gravely ill from advanced conditions which should have been diagnosed months earlier.
After a second wave of COVID-19 outbreaks is expected between mid-June and July in response to the easing of social distancing measures, Outcome Health and Monash University researcher Assoc Prof Christopher Pearce said the impact of undetected diseases would create a perfect storm when they peak from August to at least Christmas.
“We are expecting a bit of a wave to come through but, to borrow the jargon, we are looking to flatten the curve and we are starting to see the signs that it is happening,” Assoc Prof Pearce said.
“It is conditions across the board, but we are particularly concerned about cardiac conditions because they are something you monitor and adjust, skin cancer and things in that middle range.”
The forecast flood of disease is based on monitoring of more than 1000 general practices across eastern Australia, which reveals patients have ignored conditions that have previously been controlled through screening, including;
• A 60 per cent reduction in screening for cervical cancer;
• Pathology and radiology have plummeted by 75 per cent as people turn their backs on health tests and scans;
• Care plans to manage diabetes have dropped down by two thirds, from 18,000 to
5,000;
• And diabetes testing has declined by a third.
Combining data from clinics across five Primary Health Networks — covering an area from Gippsland and Southern Melbourne to Central and Western Sydney — the analysis has been outlined in three reports by Outcome Health to guide general practices’ response to the pandemic.
Assoc Prof Pearce said the information was now being fed back to GPs to try and mitigate the looming situation by proactively seeking out patients with chronic disease or who have missed screening before they spiral further.
He warned much of the post-COVID impact would hit hospitals as well as GPs with increased emergency department presentations and admissions for people with chronic illness who have been unable or unwilling to seek their usual ongoing medical care.
With the combination of anxiety, isolation, and bushfire trauma there are particular concerns for the mental health needs of people in regional and fire ravaged areas.
Premier Daniel Andrews said he was very concerned that people who require medical care aren’t going to their doctor over coronavirus fears and urged anyone who is sick or suffering from an ongoing condition to see their doctor if they need to.
“The data is very troubling that people who have got significant health issues, that don’t need hospitalisation as such but do need to be in regular contact with their GP, many people aren’t going to their doctors and getting the health care they need,” he saud.
“If you don’t get to a primary care for long enough then you’ll finish up in a tertiary hospital and we don’t want that.
“GPs have gone to extraordinary lengths to make their clinics safe and if you need health care you should come forward and get it because there’s a really significant cost if you don’t.
“It might not be apparent right now but in the weeks and months ahead you might be in a very serious condition because you haven’t got that care that you really need.”
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