Hospitals preparing for third wave of Covid as Christmas hits

If the current trend of Covid case numbers doubling every two days continues, NSW could see 25,000 new cases a day by Christmas — prompting fears of overloaded hospitals.

The state’s health system is bracing for a third wave of Covid patients, with some hospitals fearing the numbers of this new outbreak could overload emergency and intensive care departments.

Already, staff have been asked to postpone much-needed holidays, while NSW Health has elevated the situation at hospitals to Code Red and restricted visitors.

Covid cases have nearly doubled every two days in the past week and, although Omicron is growing in number, the Delta variant still represents 92 per cent of cases.

If the doubling trend continues, case numbers could hit 25,000 by Christmas Day, a figure originally predicted by UNSW modelling for daily case rates in late January.

Sybil Sweet was kept amused by her dog Wolfie in the long wait for a test at Bondi on Friday. Picture: Toby Zerna

Nurses testing people for Covid at Killara. Picture: NCA Newswire/Gaye Gerard

Leaked correspondence from a head of department at Nepean Hospital sent to staff on Friday suggested that even if hospitalisation rates remain low thanks to high vaccination levels, those numbers could overload their ICU, suggesting the state could have as many as 1000 ICU patients.

“This omicron wave will be more infectious, and less severe again. Taking one public prediction of 25,000 patients per day, and guessing: 1-2 per cent hospitalisation, 0.5 per cent ICU and 0.1 per cent mortality still leaves 1200 patients in NSW hospitals with COVID at any one time, and close to 1000 in ICU…. so a guess would see us overloaded at up to 50 ICU COVID patients. The MoH (Ministry of Health) is desperately hoping (and planning) that elective surgery sails on unabated throughout this. Clearly there is a disconnect,” the email said.

There are 1550 surge capacity ICU beds in NSW and, although intensive care figures have remained stable, hospitalisations have increased 36 per cent in the past week – from 158 to 215.

Intensive care numbers have remained stable at 24.

Because Covid has a two-week lag in hospitalisations, even if a small percentage end up in hospital it could still overwhelm hospitals, Australian Medical Association president Omar Khorshid said.

“The increase is significant but we wouldn’t expect to see hospitalisations increasing as a result of this current spike because there is a one- to two-week lag,” he said.

“The line from NSW government is that case numbers don’t matter as long as the hospitals are OK, but our view is if you have very high numbers of cases, even if your hospitalisation rate is only 1 per cent instead of 10 per cent, as it was earlier in the outbreak, 1 per cent of 25,000 is a big number every day. So you can see how high numbers of rates are just not acceptable when it comes to public health, and that is our big concern.”

Nurses at work at the Killara Covid Testing Clinic ahead of an expected surge in cases. Picture: NCA Newswire

Former Australian deputy chief medical officer Nick Coatsworth has slammed some medical commentators for “increasing fear”.

He also told ABC News: “The AMA … should consider itself more responsible in its commentary and act like true partners in this battle, rather than political opportunists.”

One doctor from a major Western Sydney hospital, who asked not to be named, said staffing levels over Christmas were a concern.

“It’s a huge problem; the hospital is asking for extra hours and advised us not to take leave unless completely necessary,” the doctor said.

“We are planning for a January crisis and staff burnout is very high at the moment. Calls are going out to find cover and staff are saying they just want a break.”

Brett Holmes, from the Nurse and Midwives Association, said there was a lot of fatigue and the sector had lost close to 1000 nurses due to vaccination mandates.

“They are not looking forward to what is coming next as we see the increase in numbers,” he said.

“We haven’t seen (them) in hospital yet, but you look at what is happening in the UK and the US and Europe, people are succumbing to Omicron and requiring hospital care.

“We can’t think this is not going to have an impact. I’m not sure the Premier understand the workforce and its exhaustion.”

Britain’s official Covid healthcare statistics website is reporting that while case numbers are soaring to 80,000 a day, there are 7579 in hospital and 886 requiring ventilation in ICU.

Two weeks ago, its case numbers were around 50,000 a day.

Professor Raina MacIntyre, epidemiologist and head of Global Biosecurity at the Kirby Institute, said the virus would especially impact the unvaccinated now that all restrictions had been lifted.

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Originally published as Hospitals preparing for third wave of Covid as Christmas hits