Hospitals braced for flood of cases
Confidential modelling within some of Melbourne’s biggest hospitals predicts a huge surge in cases next week, with one major hospital warning medical staff to prepare for an 80 per cent rise in patients.
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Hospitals are bracing for a potential doubling in severely ill COVID-19 patients over the next five days.
Confidential modelling within some of Melbourne’s biggest hospitals predicts a huge surge in cases next week, fuelled by many patients who are already identified and being monitored for worsening symptoms.
A dozen Victorian COVID-19 patients have died in the past 48 hours, with medical sources fearing worse to follow in coming days due to a lag of seven to 10 days between positive coronavirus tests and the onset of severe illness.
There were 206 coronavirus patients in Melbourne hospitals on Friday, including 41 in intensive care. Just 10 days earlier, on July 14, there were only 85 Victorian COVID-19 patients in hospitals.
One major hospital has warned medical staff to prepare for an 80 per cent rise in patients over the next five days.
Victoria’s hospitals have spent months gearing up for a flood of COVID-19 patients and should be able to cope with even a doubling to 400 cases next week. However, sources fear the system will be put under too much pressure if the community allows the trend to continue beyond the next fortnight.
The Herald Sun understands the latest epidemiological advice to hospitals is based on the real-time monitoring of patients, including those in nursing homes.
In the state’s darkest day for coronavirus deaths, seven people lost their lives as result of the disease.
Among these were two men and two women aged in their 80s and two men and one woman aged in their 90s.
To date, 56 people have died from COVID-19 in Victoria.
Five of the latest deaths are linked to aged care facilities.
Nursing home outbreaks, linked to more than 250 confirmed cases, are a major concern for health authorities battling to prevent further strain on the state’s hospitals.
Victorian Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said it was likely several people could die each day over coming weeks with the high number of infections.
“I have always expressed concern about the fact that whenever you have hundreds of new cases a day that there will be several people expected to die in the following two-week period,” he said.
“I’m afraid we will see that. I expect that to occur. It’s very tragic and it is focused in those who are most vulnerable.
“There are a number of other people, younger individuals, who are hospitalised and they are at risk of serious illness at well. Some of those people who are in intensive care and on ventilators are younger individuals, so that’s an absolute tragedy.”
Premier Daniel Andrews said a drop in cases was positive but reiterated that figures are still too high and this was “not a normal weekend”.
“Ultimately, it is in our hands, all of us,” he said.
“If we follow the rules, if we do the right thing, if we make the powerful contributions, large and small … often very simple things can make a big difference to the spread of the virus.”