Grant McArthur: Context is everything when it comes to daily case numbers

It was understandable that concerns reached fever pitch when Monday’s Covid figures were released, but context is everything.

Context is everything when it comes to Covid-19.

An apparent surge in cases on Monday was more a vindication that contact tracing was working, rather than a sign the wheels had fallen off Victoria’s efforts to overcome its latest outbreaks.

But, without context, it is little wonder Victorians feared the beginning of 2020’s second wave was repeating.

Days of low coronavirus case numbers had understandably fuelled high hopes of ending Melbourne’s lockdown.

So it was understandable that concerns reached fever pitch when Monday morning’s raw Covid-19 figures were released, showing an apparent surge of 11 cases.

At the very least, hopes of easing restrictions were dashed for many people.

It took almost two hours for further context to be added to those raw figures but, when it came, the story was vastly changed.

With no dreaded mystery cases, all 11 linked to existing clusters and eight among primary close contacts safely quarantining at home, the immediate danger of extending lockdown or suffering a third wave had passed.

The story behind Covid cases is incredibly important. Picture : Ian Currie

As we were told so many times during the dark days of 2020, it’s the story behind the cases which is all important.

So it’s worth taking an even closer look into their stories to see if they can offer anything beyond ending Monday’s immediate panic.

It’s worth remembering the first four cases of the Whittlesea outbreak were identified on May 24, sending the first of more than 6000 primary close contacts into 14-day quarantine.

That means the quarantine clock expired on Sunday and Monday for about 1500 close contacts, allowing them to leave quarantine - provided they passed a Covid-19 test taken on day 13.

Several did not, blowing out Monday’s case numbers to 11 even though they had endured quarantine with no symptoms of the virus they may actually have become positive to a week earlier.

With more and more primary close contacts set to reach their day 13 test over the next week it’s likely there will also be more positive cases emerge each day.

It is a sign of the success of contact tracing that these asymptomatic cases are only being detected en-masse at the end of quarantine rather than coming to attention sooner because they had seeded further cases while circulating.

It is also a reminder to Victorians to wait for the full context of cases rather than relying on raw numbers - and for health officials to tell the full story as soon as they are able.