Experts reveal when crowds could return to footy, races

Epidemiologists have weighed in on the fate of Melbourne’s favourite events — and revealed just how spring racing and the grand final are likely to go ahead.

Father’s Day visits are looking likely for Victorians, experts have predicted, but they’ve warned crowds at the AFL grand final and Spring Racing Carnival could face strict caps.

As Melbourne enters the second week of its sixth lockdown, three experts — Deakin University chair of epidemiology Catherine Bennett, Australian National University infectious disease physician Peter Collignon and the head of Melbourne University’s School of Population and Global Health, Nancy Baxter — have weighed in on the future of major events and whether children aged under 12 should wear masks.

Professors Bennett and Baxter have also cast doubt on whether the city’s lockdown will be lifted next week.

Do you think home visits will be allowed in time for Father’s Day?

Catherine Bennett: I am hoping we will be able to celebrate Father’s Day in the park or a restaurant in Melbourne, but I think it will be unlikely we will be able to have home visits in metro areas in the next three weeks. This might be possible for families in regional Victoria if the cases and exposure sites remain concentrated within metro Melbourne.

Peter Collignon: The short answer is it depends on how much virus is circulating in the community. They probably won’t be able to tell until four or five days beforehand, but if case numbers are low you probably could have a limited number of up to five or 10 people. But you certainly couldn’t have 50 or 100.

Nancy Baxter: If things go super well and we come out of lockdown on the 19th — unless we have another outbreak — there would probably be two weeks of restrictions on in-home visitors. If we have two weeks of no cases, we can then probably have some small gatherings. But no one should be planning for 20 or 30 people in their home.

Will there be fans at the AFL grand final? If so, how many?

CB: It is too early to say, a lot can change in six weeks. We know that even outdoor events are risky with the Delta variant. We saw with the AAMI Park cluster how even brief contact when entering venues can lead to the spread of this virus. If current outbreaks are contained completely in the next couple of weeks, and vaccination rates continue to accelerate, then there might be the possibility that low spectator numbers might be allowed (up to 25 per cent), perhaps with proof of a negative test from the past 72 hours.

PC: We wouldn’t have enough of the population vaccinated yet, so we couldn’t have a full house. I think providing there’s minimal circulation in the community we could still keep crowds at 50 per cent, making sure to keep groups of people separate.

NB: You would need reduced capacity and ticketed entry, so people don’t all come in at the same entrance. You might not be able to eat and drink. If you’re there in your mask but you remove it to eat and drink, when someone scores, people get up and shout. Think — if someone has Covid, they’re just spraying it everywhere. This is a pretty random figure but it’s hard for me to say anything above 25 per cent. If we have absolutely zero cases they might be pretty confident and have larger crowds, but there would be concern about new incursions from NSW.

Experts believe crowd capacity of between 25 to 50 per cent could be possible by the AFL grand final. Picture: Alex Coppel

The Victorian Racing Club wants a crowd of up to 60,000 each day of the spring carnival. Is this possible?

CB: Like the football, managing an outdoor event is now more challenging and, even if some events might go ahead, we may see crowds restricted to seated tickets so that areas can be zoned. If it turns out someone attending was infectious, the number exposed is contained and contact tracing is manageable. By October, vaccination numbers will be higher (we have more than 130,000 new people receiving vaccines per week in Victoria now) and, if we have had a clear run without unlinked cases in the community, larger events may be considered safe and allowed.

PC: I would still limit it to 50 per cent crowd capacity.

NB: No, not in September. But by late October, if there’s been a huge vaccination push and if we haven’t had a case in a long time, maybe. Between now and then we’ll have millions of doses of Moderna and Pfizer arrive. But given what we know about transmission and outdoor spaces, it is hard for me to believe we’d want 60,000 people hanging out together. Maybe it could work if they copied what the US is doing and the crowd was just vaccinated people.

Will interstate travel be on the cards by the September school holidays?

CB: Other state borders are still likely to be closed to Victorians, but if the Melbourne outbreaks have been contained and restrictions are consistent across the state, then holiday travel may at least be possible statewide.

PC: It depends on what numbers are around but I think it’s likely there’d be limitations, I can’t imagine there wouldn’t be.

NB: No. Maybe Tasmania or South Australia, but we’d probably need two weeks of looking like there’s no cases before anyone would say OK to us. We just have to accept we need to hunker down for the next three or four months. It’s hard, I haven’t been home in almost two years but the other side is almost here. I know there will be a lot of holidays that are cancelled and families that can’t be seen and maybe some opportunities that are missed. For the next three or four months we just need to accept there’s no guarantee for interstate travel and plans. But I am hopeful, ambitious and optimistic about vaccination, and we will have a fantastic Christmas.

Theatres aren’t likely to be filled until at least 80 per cent of the population is vaccinated.

Is there a way Melbourne theatres or live music venues could have capacity audiences in the next three months?

CB: Indoor and mass gathering events may be possible by the very end of the year when we hit very high rates of vaccination and therefore can have better control of local outbreaks, but this will take three months to get to that level.

PC: Until we get large numbers of people vaccinated (the 80 per cent target), we need to have restrictions. Over the next couple of months, even if there’s low spread, capacity should still be limited.

NB: The risk is high with Delta being in enclosed spaces, so it’s hard for me to believe it will be full capacity.

Guns N’ Roses are due to perform in Melbourne on November 11. Do you see large concert events happening by then? What capacity do you imagine will be allowed to attend?

CB: We might be getting close by November to having levels of coverage that allow larger events, but this might be the time where either negative tests or vaccination status might help manage the risk of transmission and allow these events to go ahead at controlled numbers sooner than would otherwise be considered. Even with this, I can’t see the authorities allowing more than 50 per cent audience capacity by early November.

PC: That’s possible, it will be dependent on the number of people vaccinated. We should keep restrictions until we hit the vaccination targets. If we keep vaccinating at the rate we are now, it is possible. The MCG, being outside, there’s potential for full capacity by November.

NB: That requires a crystal ball I don’t have. If it does happen, I expect they’re going to have wear masks. As a planner type of person, I wouldn’t be planning that it’s going to happen, but maybe Axl knows something I don’t.

Opinions are divided on whether masks should be mandatory for children under 12.

Should kids aged under 12 have to wear masks when they are mandatory indoors and outside?

CB: We don’t yet have a very detailed understanding of infection risk in those under 12, nor how infectious they are to others when they do get infected. But we have seen more spread among school-aged children with Delta. The standard masks don’t fit smaller children very well, and young children who are not used to wearing masks might fiddle with them, making masks less effective. If in high-risk indoor settings, it is worth considering, but they should not be worn by any children under the age of two.

PC: No, because it’s too hard. All things considered the chance of it being worn properly (by young children) are low. The fact that more children are getting Delta is a function of the fact that older people are vaccinated.

NB: I think it’s something that should actively be considered and we should learn from other jurisdictions. When we are vaccinated, the people who aren’t will be children.

Will we come out of lockdown next Thursday and what will it take?

CB: These last couple of days have revealed that we still have people who were infectious before they were identified as cases, and therefore were not in full isolation. More importantly, we have had six local clusters where the source has not yet been found, and this means there have been other active, infectious cases in the community in the last few days, and possibly other chains of transmission linked to them, or their source, that are as yet unknown.

NB: On the balance of probabilities, I think it is unlikely. It is not impossible that we would be out of lockdown in seven days, but it is not likely. I would anticipate they will move slower. I am not sure if they will open restaurants, in my opinion they shouldn’t open gyms.

In general they’re places that are a little riskier. With Delta we need more time before we reopen and they’re going to want to prioritise schools. It makes sense to keep schools open over restaurants.