Experts optimistic as new figures reveal drop in Victorian coronavirus infections
Christmas is set to look very different for Victorians this year, but health authorities are hopeful families will be able to spend the festive season together. And this is the first stage four restriction that could be lifted as the second wave’s curve continues to flatten.
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Victoria is on track to ease out of stage four restrictions on time with hopes families could spend Christmas together.
Official government modelling, obtained exclusively by the Herald Sun, reveals a key indicator has drastically encouraged authorities in charge of the COVID-19 response.
The Herald Sun understands authorities are now confident of a gradual easing of restrictions, providing ongoing compliance with current restrictions.
It would likely see Melbourne’s nightly curfew dropped as a first step, with families possibly able to gather again by Christmas.
Current government modelling is predicting a return to stage 2 restrictions by December.
Earlier stage 2 restrictions allowed for pubs, restaurants and cafes to open to some customers and for families and friends to gather in limited numbers.
It is the first time modelling of this kind has been released in such detail, showing the rapid fall of Victoria’s Reff number — the number of people a positive case infects.
For the first time since June the number has fallen below 1, meaning the number of new cases numbers will continue to decrease.
The number peaked at almost 2.5 in mid-April, and has been as high as 1.67 since June.
Authorities believe the introduction of stage 3 restrictions and mandatory face covering regulations were key factors in driving the number down.
Further modelling is expected to show the number has dropped even further since the introduction of stage 4 restrictions across Melbourne.
Those restrictions are due to expire on September 13.
Daniel Andrews has repeatedly refused to be drawn on his plans for easing restrictions, but has repeatedly said he wants “as many people at Christmas dinner as possible”.
Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton said the Reff number was a key tool in the fight against coronavirus.
“A Reff number under 1 means we’ll see a drop in cases; the lower the number the faster the drop,” he said.
“The stage four restrictions now in place will see us drive down the Reff number and slow the spread of coronavirus.”
Social researcher and demographer Bernard Salt said Victoria should be guided by NSW and Queensland when planning an easing of restrictions.
“We can see what is happening there, we know the path forward, its not uncharted in that sense,” Mr Salt said.
“We’ll have to follow their protocols to ensure there’s no slip ups.”
Mr Salt predicted many strict rules would remain in force for some time in the absence of a vaccine.
But he said Victorians would likely embrace the new normal because of the second wave experience.
“In particular Melbourne has been here now, and won’t want to return to these conditions,” he said.
“We’ve learnt that societies that allow a slip up to magnify and to not jump on it gets itself into trouble.”
Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said the risk of spreading the virus across households and communities remained as more people moved around and interacted with others.
“Following the rules and current restrictions can have a huge impact on the Reff number – and therefore transmission – as we’ve seen in the past few weeks with the Reff number starting to come down,” she said.
“This pandemic has already taken too many Victorian lives which is why it’s so important we all stay at home – because the quicker we get the Reff number down, the quicker we can get new cases down as low as possible.”
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