Experts have their say on the restrictions that should be eased
After Melbourne failed to hit the targets needed to move to the third step out of lockdown, Daniel Andrews has been forced to rethink his controversial road map — including expanding Melburnians’ 5km to 20km. These are the restrictions two leading experts believe are safe to ease.
Coronavirus
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A 20km travel limit is being considered for Melbourne’s new road map – due to be released on Sunday – as commerce chiefs renew their calls for small businesses to be reopened.
Deputy Chief Health Officer Allen Cheng confirmed the current controversial 5km zone could be expanded, but said the final decision had not yet been made.
“We are looking at it, but the announcement will be on Sunday,” Mr Cheng said.
“We’re looking at everything at the moment.
“We are running the models as we speak and they should be off the computer in the next day or so, it does take a little bit of time to do that.
“We are considering all sorts of things.”
It comes as business ramped up its campaign against “extreme” measures to stop the spread of coronavirus and pleads for relief for retailers, cafes and personal service operators.
Business Council of Australia chief executive Jennifer Westacott said: “Extreme lockdowns and border closures are papering over the urgent need for a workable plan to live safely with this virus.
“We all recognise that in the long run there can be no trade-off between health, social and economic recovery, but our strategy must deliver on all fronts, or it will fail.
She added: “Victoria needs to lead and bring forward its timetable to open up so people can get on with their lives and learn to live safely side-by-side with the virus.”
University of Melbourne epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely also supported easing restrictions.
“We need to pick those things that give us some sanity and normality,” he said.
“The 5km has to go – whether that be 10km or completely”.
He added: “Picnics of up to 10 people, having people over to your house but just use the backyard. We know it doesn’t spread outside much.”
WHERE WOULD A 20KM BUBBLE TAKE YOU?
WHICH RESTRICTIONS COULD/SHOULD GO
Melbourne was due to move to the third step out of lockdown on Monday — but has not hit the required case targets to do so.
The government will still announce some easing of restrictions on Sunday, having hinted that while social measures could be relaxed, there isn’t much relief for businesses.
These are the predicted moves and which restrictions two leading experts — Australian National University epidemiologist Peter Collignon and University of New South Wales infection prevention expert and member of the World Health Organisation, Mary-Louise McLaws — believe are safe to ease.
SOCIAL
POSSIBLE: Removing 5km limit
LIKELY: Outdoor public gatherings increased to up to 10 people
POSSIBLE, WITH SOME EASING EXPECTED: Home visitors of up to five people from one household
EXPERTS SAY: Relax most outdoor restrictions, including 5km travel limit, but no home visits
PC: “We know that if we are outdoors, the risk of spread is markedly lower. Curfews and 5km limits are a pretty broad brush – they might have some relevance if you have 700 cases a day (but not now).”
MLM: “If you’re going to allow anyone at home, it’s problematic. You could increase outdoors, but indoors increases amplification events because of low or poor ventilation. (Gathering) outside, you’d have to make sure you kept the mask on but you do want to release the public from two months of lockdown fatigue. I think the 5km could be extended (in distance) as long as people are wearing masks.”
EDUCATION
Schools reopened for all students.
EXPERTS SAY: Children back to school but no parents gathering
PC: “We know being with younger children is much less of a risk than being with adults in their 20s and 30s. Any benefits from closures in decreasing community spread is very low, compared to the medium and long-term detrimental effects on children and their families.”
MLM: “The group that causes the increased risk are the parents. Parents cannot be anywhere near the campus — that has to stop. Children from the age of 14 start responding to COVID-19 like adults, so you’ve got to keep teenagers in early high school away from other people’s parents as well.”
BUSINESS
LIMITED CHANGES: Restaurants and cafes allowed to have seated service — predominantly outdoors — with limits on group numbers (10), indoor patrons (20) and outdoor patrons (50)
UNLIKELY: Retail reopens, including hairdressing and beauty services
UNLIKELY: Outdoor real estate auctions allowed, subject to gathering limits
EXPERTS SAY: Shopping permitted but use QR codes/keep visitors details for contact tracing and have capacity limits. Outdoor dining, but only in small groups.
PC: “What greatly increases the rate of spread are crowded indoor venues, shouting and singing. Alcohol ingestion additionally decreases people’s adherence to physical distancing.”
MLM: “Dining could be allowed outside but not inside. This is the time for Melbourne to show off how innovative and creative it is. Go and do some retail therapy with your mask on, but use your QR code every time. It’s all about not amplifying clusters.”
SPORT AND RECREATION
LIKELY, BUT COULD BE LIMITED: Outdoor contact and non-contact sport for U18s
POSSIBLE: Outdoor non-contact sport for adults, with gathering/density limits, outdoor skate parks open, outdoor fitness (10 people)
EXPERTS SAY: Outdoor exercise and activities like boating and fishing permitted but wear masks and social distance.
PC: “We should scrap most outdoor restrictions regarding travel and activities where you remain in small groups — such as going to parks, fishing, hiking — irrespective of case numbers as the risk of transmission is so low.”
MLM: “Exercising outside is fine … everybody around the world is fed up with joggers pushing particles out onto pedestrians. We have to ask them to jog away from pedestrians.”
CEREMONIES
UNKNOWN: 10 people, including the couple and witnesses, at weddings
UNKNOWN: Up to 20 people allowed at funerals
ALLOWED: Up to 10 people at outdoor religious gatherings, plus a faith leader
UNKNOWN: facilities open for private worship for households or household bubbles, plus a faith leader
EXPERTS VERDICT: Outdoors but in small groups only.
PC: “The virus spreads predominantly by droplets to people close to someone who is infected.
We need to ensure that whatever restrictions are in place are proportionate to the amount of transmission occurring.”
MLM: “Things like weddings, funerals and religious ceremonies cannot occur for a long time yet. These settings tend to congregate people close to one another, they get huggy and are close.”
TRAVEL AND ENTERTAINMENT
NOT ALLOWED: Intrastate travel
UNLIKELY: Outdoor entertainment venues and spaces open with density quotients
UNLIKELY: Accommodation venues open with household bubble
EXPERTS VERDICT: Only when cases get to an average of five per day. Entertainment venues to remain shut.
PC: “You may be able to travel but stay within greater Melbourne for a while. If you’re travelling with your family, you’re not going to come into contact with anyone else.”
MLM: “Leave (travel and accommodation) until your case numbers are less than five. If authorities think those regional areas — outside of the hot spots — have very low levels, then you don’t want people from Melbourne seeding (the virus). That sort of travel could be done by the locals themselves.”