Epidemiologists reveal which restrictions should be the next to be relaxed
After six straight days of zero new cases, optimism is growing that more restrictions will be eased. Two top epidemiologists weigh in on what the next moves should be.
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Should masks be mandatory outdoors?
TB: “There’s not great hurry but [the next stages] will see masks not required outdoors. But they will be on public transport or walking along places like Smith Street, if you’re watching a band and you just cannot physically distance.”
CB: “As our COVID-19 cases drop to very low levels, there is unlikely to be any material benefit from people wearing masks outdoors where they can keep their physical distance from others. As the weather warms, it increases the likelihood that masks get damp from perspiration and this further diminished their effectiveness.”
How many people should we be able to have visit us at home?
TB: “I suspect that will open up and [increase] but those types of decisions are better left to the Chief Health Officer and DHHS. They have all the data and can see where the potential problems are.”
CB: “Indoor gatherings lift to 20 in the final step and I think we are almost ready for that if we keep an eye on the number of households involved. It would be safer if each household was encouraged to only interact with a maximum of seven other households in a week – like now – and this could be at one event or spread over the week.”
Outdoor gatherings are currently capped at 10. What should that increase to?
TB: “In this case I would suspect that we increase and be recommending it. There’s no magic number … but it’s a low transmission rate outdoors.”
CB: “Outdoor gatherings could also move to 20 in line with the final road map step if we see more zero days before the Sunday announcements. It is important for all gatherings that people don’t attend if they have any symptoms.”
Should cinemas be allowed to reopen?
TB: “I don’t see why we can’t see cinemas opening up at reduced capacity. I would be surprised if we don’t see some movement in coming weeks. But that's an environment where you would leave masks on.”
CB : “Yes. We may only be a week away from meeting the targets for the final step, but if we get our average daily case number in metro below 1, and no mystery cases, then I think it will be safe to open cinemas with limited capacity and masks worn.”
The 25km travel limit and regional/metro border is due to drop on Monday. Should it have been removed earlier?
TB : “It’s very hard to know when the magic time or number is, but … my gut feeling is it’s time to bring those borders down. Nothing is black and white safe and I think that level of opening up is about right.”
CB: “We could have left these distance restrictions behind when we moved to Step 3. In fact, as the weather has warmed up, they have arguably caused some of the crowding seen along the head of the bay with restricted beach access for those in the north of Melbourne.”
From Monday, restaurants will be allowed to have 40 people indoors and 70 outdoors. Would it be safe for them to have more?
TB: “I wouldn’t. It’s about a 50 per cent chance there’s virus out there, and if there is it will start to pop up sometime soon. We don’t just want to open up to pre-COVID capacity, that would be madness. Two weeks after Sunday, then maybe we can open more.”
CB: “It would be good to move back to density-based rules so that larger venues are not penalised, like the four square metre space rule used in NSW.”
Should all states open their borders to Victoria now?
TB : “That will be up to the other states … but if we’re at zero in three weeks time there’s really no reason why those borders can’t come down. What hasn’t been discussed is Victoria closing the border to NSW. If they still have community cases in two weeks time and everywhere else has eliminated it, we may need to seriously consider it.”
CB: “All those open to NSW should be also be open to Victoria. Some states may want to see a few more zero days before relaxing their border rules.”
Do you think they will have opened by Christmas?
TB: “It’s looking like travel will be opened among the rest of the country [by Christmas], plus or minus NSW. My guess is that the limiting factor will not be the borders, but how many people come together based on rules in other states.”
CB: “I certainly hope so. All states need to be prepared for the occasional case, whether it crosses the border from another state or escapes quarantine.”
Should Victorians be able to have family visit at home for Christmas? How many visitors?
TB: “If we have zero transmission in Victoria, we can have a fairly normal Christmas. If we have transmission, there will have to be some limits on gathering sizes and outdoors.”
CB: “We could reach the targets for the COVID-normal step by Christmas, removing restrictions on home visitors though encouraging us to keep a record of who was there. Even if we don’t, I imagine that we will be able to have at least 20 indoors, or more if we chose to book a venue.”
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