Earlier action would have cut Victoria’s lockdown in half
The length and severity of Victoria’s harsh Stage 4 lockdown could have been cut in half if restrictions had been imposed 10 days earlier, a probe into the state’s COVID-19 response has revealed.
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Melbourne could have avoided a long and harsh stage four lockdown if health authorities had acted sooner to shut down the state’s second wave of coronavirus, a new analysis suggests.
An examination of Victoria’s COVID-19 response by Melbourne epidemiologists found the severity and length of the state’s second wave would have been cut in half if restrictions had been imposed 10 days earlier.
The Monash University analysis found that by waiting until July 9 to lock down Melbourne under stage three restrictions — after the state had already reached 143 daily infections — authorities plunged the state into a prolonged shutdown.
Associate professor Lei Zhang, head of artificial intelligence and modelling at Monash’s epidemiology program, said Victoria’s second shutdown has been twice as long and uncovered 10 times as many infections as the first wave as a result of the slower response.
“The stage three restrictions were implemented in mid July and at that time we already had 143 cases per day,” Prof Zhang said.
“That was a bit too late for the second outbreak.
“If we were able to do it seven to 10 days earlier, I think we could have reduced the second outbreak by at least half.
“It is an important lesson for us to learn — the earlier we act, the better result we get.”
The study, published in the journal The Innovation, compared data from the responses to Victoria’s first wave of COVID-19 cases to its second, as well as the effect of similar restrictions overseas.
Prof Zhang said during the first wave Victoria declared a state of emergency on March 16, when the state had recorded just 17 daily COVID-19 cases.
He said Victoria was already approaching 150 daily cases — about twice the peak of the first wave — when similar action was taken on July 9 to suppress the second wave.
Victoria’s daily cases jumped dramatically from the mid-40s to the mid-60s on June 29, at which point Prof Zhang said stage four restrictions could have been much more effective in quickly suppressing the second wave.
The Monash paper says the restriction measures were effective in cutting cases from 500-700 cases a day in early August to 30-50 a day in early September, but had too much to overcome when active cases were allowed to rise too far above 30.
The study also says that the average daily number of cases during the two months between Victoria’s first and second waves was eight — the same number that it has now returned to.
Prof Zhang said it was important that health officials across Australia learnt from the way cases increased so they could better time a response in future.
“We are pretty much back to the low transmission period between the two outbreaks,“ he said.
“The future is still a little bit unknown, whether this chain will go off or whether it will take off again.
“I think this is a lesson for everyone. I think one lesson that we have all learnt, that the government has also learned, is the use of face masks.
“If there is a third wave coming then we shouldn’t wait until we have 100 cases to act.”
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