Delta Covid outbreak: Professor Nathan Grills answers key questions

From when the coronavirus crisis is likely to end, to whether we will need booster shots for the rest of our lives; a Covid expert answers key questions on the Delta outbreak.

Victorians could be waiting in line for Covid vaccine booster shots “for the foreseeable future”. Picture: David Geraghty

Is it inevitable we will have another Delta outbreak here in Victoria?

Highly likely. Whether it be from NSW or overseas. So we need to get vaccine rates up so we can face Covid-19 more safely.

When do you think this coronavirus crisis will be over for the world`?

The billion dollar question in public health right now! Coronavirus will never be over but the crisis will be! In the meantime we need to get high vaccination rates (and boosters) across all the world and not just in rich countries. This pandemic has proven that as a global community we are all in this together. In places like India and the UK the crisis is nearly over … but they have paid a large price. They are getting close to herd immunity through high infection rates and immunisation. And that’s where Australia needs to get to by immunisation mainly. In Australia it will not be over until we get immunisation rates high. Even then, given Delta’s high R0 we will need to open up cautiously and maintain some limitations and use of masks and we will need to accept we experience outbreaks and many deaths as we do in a flu season. But that’s not a crisis. Over time the virus will likely become a virus that our kids grow up with and safely gain immunity to at young ages.

Are more global pandemics likely? What is to stop it happening again?

It can and will happen again. But we have learned so much in how to respond quickly and effectively. I think next time our worldwide response will be rapid and more effective and prevent something at the scale of Covid-19

What can we do to stop another pandemic?

As we have seen it needs a global co-ordinated response.

No one is safe until we are all safe … and we need to invest in supporting and developing better health systems in low and middle income countries. Appropriately fund WHO. Better international reporting of possible outbreaks and data transparency.

Are there fundamental changes we need to make to how we live now, because of this crisis?

Not so much at an everyday societal level. But we need to be prepared to act rapidly in the future and curb unsafe activities if another pandemic emerges.

Will we need to take booster shots for the rest of our lives to stop being sick from this virus?

At least for the foreseeable future and especially for the at risk demographics (older people). But our kids will grow up experiencing and gaining immunity from infections when they are young. When they are older they might not require regular boosters. The one big hope is that a highly-transmissible, low-virulent strain becomes the dominant strain…..but that is unlikely in the short-term as virulence and spread are both associated with high viral load.

Vaccinations are the way out of the Covid pandemic. Picture: Sarah Matray

Do you think our lives have changed forever because of this pandemic – if so how?

It’s hastened the use of technology for communications and the need for international travel will be lessened. People will be more likely to work at home or in alternative arrangements.

What did you think of the way Victoria and Australia responded to this pandemic and what surprised you?

Over all quite well …with some glaring mistakes which are easy to spot in retrospect of course. But it’s hard to attribute blame in the face of totally unprecedented situation unfolding. Of course without a vaccine we had no way out of zero Covid so that was a risk. And I was pleasantly surprised we had a vaccine so quickly (4 billion doses been given) and it surprised me that we rolled it out so slowly!

What is the one piece of advice you would want people to take out of this crisis?

We need to trust the medical science and get vaccinated! It not only can save your life …but the lives of those you love …and ultimately can save our nation by allowing society to function ‘normally’. But a myopic focus on one disease – stopping any deaths from that disease at all costs – is narrow. We need to apply the medical evidence in the bigger picture. The decisions we are making on Covid-19 impact every aspect of our society, our economy, our education and our mental health and wellbeing. Medical science will inform such decisions but these decisions require non-medical inputs as we weigh up risk, look at the bigger societal picture and manage fear.