Aussie experts warn the fourth Covid wave is a ‘variant soup’ and has yet to peak
A panel of experts has revealed when Australia’s fourth wave of Omicron infection will peak and what we can expect at Christmas.See how you can protect yourself with booster jabs.
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Australia’s latest Covid-19 wave is a “soup” of variants that is yet to peak, but it should also be in the “decline phase” by Christmas, according to epidemiologists.
But new infection numbers are likely to be four to six times higher than the approximately 10,000 daily cases officially recorded, partly because of lower rates of testing, the experts warn.
Speaking as part of an online briefing on Monday, Hassan Vally, Associate Professor in Epidemiology at Deakin University, said it was his “optimistic take” that Australia was in for a “shorter, sharper” wave, as had recently been seen in Singapore.
“I don’t think we’re at the peak yet, but the most optimistic take might be [the peak will come] in the next week or two,” Assoc Prof Vally said.
He was “fairly confident” Australia “will be in the decline phase by the time we get to Christmas”.
But we should also “never get too confident”, he warned.
“Every time we think we’ve got a handle on [Covid], there’s a surprise around the corner,” he said.
Australia’s fourth Omicron wave started in late October, with “significant increases week on week,” Assoc Prof Vally said.
While BA5 was still the most dominant variant, it was on the decline and being replaced by other strands such as BQ1 and XBB, leading to the so-called “variant soup”.
But the new variants seem “inherently less virulent” than Omicron, so Australia could expect “waves of smaller amplitude and lower rates of severe disease,” he said.
Immunity levels for severe illness were “pretty robust” thanks to vaccinations, boosters and previous infections, Assoc Prof Vally said, although that protection was waning.
While some have criticised the recent decision by the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) not to recommend a fifth dose of vaccine, experts believe community immunity as a whole could be boosted with renewed focus on ensuring people had their third and fourth doses.
The adult uptake of dose three was around 72 per cent of the population, and for those eligible for a fourth dose, only between 24-48 per cent of people (depending on their state) had taken it up, said Associate Professor Paul Griffin, the Director of Infectious Diseases at Mater Health Services.
“This is below where it needs to be,” he said.
There was also a “need to reinforce the basics” to keep people safe, Assoc Prof Griffin said.
This included being up to date with vaccines, staying home if feeling unwell, and wearing masks, he said.
“If you’re a high-risk individual, or going to a high-risk venue, just pop your mask on for the foreseeable future,” he said.
“It’s not a hard thing, it’s not a costly thing, it’s not perfect, but it does help a lot.”
Assoc Prof Vally concurred, but also expressed concern surgical masks were being disparaged by some in favour of N-95 masks.
“Any mask is better than no mask,” he said.
“Surgical masks are great. If you can get the best mask possible, even better.”
Moderna’s Chief Medical Officer Dr Paul Burton told the forum that the US and European experiences suggested case numbers could be tracking four to six times higher than official statistics.
Covid remained a threat, and children were far from immune from severe disease, he said.
“In the US in the first 10 months of this year, more children died of Covid than in the first 10 months of 2020 and 2021 combined,” he said.
But the company’s two new “bivalent” vaccines, which target two variants of Covid-19 in one dose, were proving to be effective at providing protection, Dr Burton said.
“If you get one of these new updated booster vaccines, you will have 75 to almost 90 per cent increased antibody levels against the new variant of concern, following boosting, and that’s particularly true in people who were previously infected with Covid,” he said.
After three months, antibody levels were still high, at around 66 per cent, Dr Burton said.
Despite some of the encouraging news about the latest wave, the experts warned Covid-19’s fatal and life-altering potential should not be underestimated.
Dr Burton said we “still don’t have a clue about some of the manifestations of long Covid”, and Dr Griffin said we were still seeing 100 deaths a week in Australia.
And while there continued to be a perception that Covid-19 was only deadly for older people, the reality was more than 50 Australians aged under 40 had died from Covid in the first six months of this year, Dr Griffin said.
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