Coronavirus Q&A: Everything you wanted to know about Victoria’s coronavirus situation
Why are Victoria’s coronavirus cases still so high, and why aren’t they coming down quicker? Is Victoria’s strain of the virus different to others, and will we ever get back to working in an office? All of your coronavirus questions are answered in this Q&A.
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Why are the figures still so high, we were supposed to be in single figures?
Authorities have flagged for some time daily COVID-19 increases would be unlikely to hit single figures by the end of stage four restrictions. New modelling now suggests an average of 60 a day by that time. Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says driving the number further down is a relatively hard task.
Why aren’t the figures going down faster?
The most recent effective reproductive number was estimated at 0.82, meaning that on average, each case causes 0.82 secondary cases (or 10 cases resulting in roughly 8 onward transmissions). But this number is only the average, and this is a disease where superspreading events can derail our best efforts. This means that for every outbreak we see, say 1 person resulting in 5 transmissions, there needs to be more than 5 other cases not transmitting to anyone to keep that average below 1. The current situation in Colac is a good example of how difficult this is to contain – a single case has now resulted in more than 20 cases. Ideally, this number would be much lower, so that the fall in case numbers would be steeper. In theory, if everyone stayed isolated at home for a few weeks and didn’t transmit to anyone, this would be over in a few weeks. But that’s not how society works – many people live in households, essential services still need to run and people still continue to interact, albeit at a much lower level than in normal times.
Will the shops be open for Christmas?
Shops could be open following a gradual easing of restrictions in an attempt to have as normal Christmas as possible.
Will our kids be back at school next term?
Education Minister James Merlino is confident school can return in Term 4, but has not yet put a time frame on it, meaning remote learning could feature for at least part of the term.
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Will we ever get to zero?
Not necessarily. Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says there’s no guarantee, but Victoria is pursuing a strategy of getting to zero community transmissions.
Why can’t we lift these restrictions now?
Experts say lifting restrictions too quickly would risk an explosion of new cases.
Will country Victoria have restrictions lifted sooner as numbers are lower in regions?
It is expected Victoria will undergo a two-speed recovery that would allow restrictions to be eased across regional Victoria ahead of Metropolitan Melbourne.
When can we stop working from home?
It is expected working from home will remain a key feature of Victoria’s recovery, meaning many Victorians may not return to their workplaces until 2021.
How long will we have restrictions for?
As long as there are active cases it is expected restrictions are likely to stay – the Premier has said until there is a vaccine.
Is this virus any different to other states’ virus?
No. Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton says there is no evidence that the Victorian strain of the virus is any more virulent than other states. Evidence from overseas points to a relationship between the speed of transmission and how people are behaving.
When can we shake hands or hug someone again?
Shaking hands or hugging people is not currently banned, however it is strongly discouraged to slow the spread of COVID-19.
When can we stop wearing masks?
The wearing of masks is expected to be a feature of the Victorian response for some time, and could remain in force until zero active cases have been recorded.
Will we be able to go to a cafe soon or a restaurant?
Outdoor dining is expected to be allowed as a first step in restriction changes, pending case numbers, and would have strict limits on the number of people allowed in venues.
What is community transmission?
Community transmission is where there are large numbers of local transmissions occurring and a direct source of exposure cannot be identified.
Will I be able to start visiting people again from next week, when Stage 4 was supposed to end?
Unlikely. Authorities say they want to see a much more substantial drop in cases numbers before visits can resume. Public gatherings are likely to be allowed first.
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