Coronavirus conspiracy theories debunked by an expert
Think that face masks are a waste of time or Victoria’s case numbers are only going up because we’re testing more people? Here are the answers to some of our most enduring coronavirus conspiracies from a medical expert.
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We’ll be locked down until we find a vaccine, face masks are pointless, the virus won’t affect me because I’m young – University of Melbourne Professor Tony Blakely, Professorial Fellow in Epidemiology and a public health specialist, gives his answers to all the enduring rumours and speculation about this killer virus.
THE POSITIVE CASE NUMBERS ARE ONLY RISING IN VICTORIA BECAUSE WE ARE DOING MORE TESTS THAN ANYONE ELSE
Not true. Since 4 June, average cases per day have gone up from four to 200 per day – a 50-fold increase. Over the same time period, testing has gone up from an average of 4000 tests per day to 25,000 per day, a six-fold increase. That is, the rate of COVID-19 cases is going up 10 times faster than the rate of testing.
THESE NEW CASES ARE A LOWER STRENGTH VERSION OF THE VIRUS WHICH IS EVIDENT BECAUSE WHILE CASE NUMBERS ARE GOING UP THE NUMBER OF HOSPITALISATIONS/DEATHS IS NOT INCREASING AT THE SAME RATE
Very unlikely to be true. First, it takes about seven days from infection till symptoms, and another two weeks until serious illness and admission to ICU. The hospitalisations and ICU numbers lag behind by two weeks or so, and deaths by up to three weeks. Second, this outbreak has initially been more concentrated among young people – who do not get as serious symptoms. I have not seen the age-stratified results, but I am confident they will show (allowing for lags) that the severity of this outbreak is just as serious among the elderly.
THE VIRUS SPREAD WILL SLOW IN SUMMER BECAUSE IT DOESN’T LAST AS LONG ON SURFACES WHEN ITS WARMER
Seasonal variation is likely, but more likely due to being outdoors versus indoors. There are likely other features of season that effect the reproductive rate, but this is inconclusive.
Differential half-life times on surfaces with vary temperate, while it cannot be ruled out, is an unlikely major driver of seasonal variation.
I DON’T NEED TO WORRY BECAUSE I’M YOUNG IT WON’T REALLY HURT ME
Possibly, and no. Possibly – in that young people do not get very serious illness on average, but there is still the exception of young people dying of COVID-19. Moreover, there are (probably uncommon) long term side effects among young people. No – at the population level, a young person passes it on to other people, including the elderly and the vulnerable. These downstream infections may be more fatal. COVID-19 is a societal phenomenon.
There is no point closing schools because kids don’t get that sick or pass it on to one another
It depends. If we are pursuing an elimination strategy (i.e. stop all community transmission of the COVID-19 virus), then schools need to close. Why? Because children still transmit the virus, propagating the epidemic. However, if we are pursuing a suppression strategy (i.e. accept there will be low levels of community transmission), then schools can stay open – at least once the immediate outbreak is under control.
It’s important to note that I recommend an elimination strategy – therefore I recommend schools stay shut till the virus is a very low levels or even eliminated.
A LOCKDOWN IS A WASTE OF TIME WHEN THIS VIRUS IS NO MORE DANGEROUS THAN THE FLU
False. First, numerous large-scale studies have shown that lockdowns are very effective at stopping transmission. Second, the mortality rate from SARS-CoV-2 is probably about 10 times that of influenza.
However, our approach to this pandemic may change in the future. For example, if a vaccine seems unlikely or a long time away, and treatments get better and better at lowering case fatality, and we get better at protecting the elderly from infection, we as a society may pivot to allowing the virus to spread and build up herd immunity. But – in my view – we are not at this point yet. Rather, it is much better to go hard in lockdown now, aim for elimination, then live mostly normally till a vaccine arrives or we have to pivot to a safer her immunity approach.
FACE MASKS ARE A WASTE OF TIME
False. A systematic review in the Lancet last week found that on average across all studies, face masks reduce transmission by up to 80 per cent or so. This is a massive benefit. Indeed, modelling we are doing shows that widespread mask wearing if you have to be in a crowded indoor environment or public transport may be enough to make elimination a high likelihood after six weeks of lockdown. Masks are no silver bullet, but they are important to reduce spread.
WE WILL BE LOCKED DOWN LIKE THIS UNTIL EVERY PERSON IS VACCINATED AND THAT MAY TAKE MORE THAN A YEAR – WE WOULD BE BETTER OFF LETTING IT SPREAD AND GETTING A HERD IMMUNITY
Society has clearly indicated they do not want the scenes in the UK and USA repeated in Australia. If we just let the ‘virus rip’ now, more than 100,000 deaths would arise. However, it is true that both an elimination strategy and tight suppression strategy are ‘betting on’ the arrival of a vaccine – true. And if a vaccine does not arrive, we will need to reconsider our approach. My strong advice at the moment is to go for elimination, control the borders really well with quarantine, and then we can live a reasonably normal life for a year or so in our Australasian travel bubble (with no virus circulating). If in a year’s time the vaccine is not close to hand, then we need to reconsider. By that time, treatments should be better, and social mechanisms to protect the elderly should be improved (e.g. how to configure rest-homes to protect those who want to be protected). Then we could, but not yet!, pivot to a herd immunity approach.
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