Analysis: Why there’s reason for hope amid Victoria’s coronavirus crisis
It’s been a horror week for Victoria as the coronavirus death toll continues to rise and case numbers soar, but amid the tragedy and despair there is one glimmer of hope.
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When you look at the numbers, there doesn’t seem to be much difference between 1 and 0.5.
It’s exactly half.
But that half, for many families, is the difference between life and death. Between a loved one living or dying.
Those numbers are the current and desired infection numbers in Victoria respectively – the R or reproduction number, as it’s known.
The R number is the average number of people one person with COVID-19 will infect. This number currently sits at 1 – meaning if you’re infected on Monday, by Friday you will have spread the virus to one other person.
And despite a horrific week of cases and record deaths – the positive is that the infection rate has stayed the same.
The state’s Chief Health Officer, Professor Brett Sutton, this week said modelling showed Victoria should have hit its peak with 532 cases on Monday. He was hopeful, but not definitive.
It’s the R number he’s really banking on.
“Driving that effective reproduction number down below one is the thing that will start to see numbers drop. And as numbers drop, outbreaks drop,” Prof Sutton said on Monday.
When we went into lockdown for every covid positive person three or four more would test positive after the first incubation period of five days.
Stay at home measures and now masks have helped that number come down slightly and stabilise at one.
It’s not enough to get us out of this mess but it’s a start.
For things to get better, we need this number to drop – and ideally halve.
This, coupled with suppressing and stabilising outbreak numbers, is what will see our situation improve.
Over the last week while overall case numbers have been shockingly high there are other numbers that show promise.
Cases linked to known outbreaks over the last four days peaked and is hopefully sliding back down again. The numbers went 37, 82, 154 and 78.
And the number of cases linked to possible community transmission is bouncing around at roughly the same point. Between 1200 and 1350.
Stable numbers are better than growing numbers but the challenge is far from over. Driving them down is the only thing that will satisfy authorities that we have the situation in hand and allow us to reopen.
Let’s hope by masking up and stopping the spread – as experts suggest – gets us there.
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