Why North Korea is stepping up its military provocations
HE MAY look like a madman baiting enemies into war, but there are sound reasons behind Kim Jong-un’s military provocations.
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FROM the outside, he may look like a madman. A despotic leader pushing ahead with a military strategy that could result in nuclear war and the annihilation of his country.
But one expert says there is a sound strategy behind Kim Jong-un’s provocative military moves that actually gives him the upper hand against the US.
North Korea caused global alarm on Tuesday when it launched what military experts believe was a new mid-range Hwasong-12 ballistic missile over northern Japan, landing in the Pacific Ocean about 1000km east of the nation’s mainland.
Follow the latest updates on the North Korea crisis
The missile test drew swift condemnation from Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (“an unprecedented, grave and serious threat”), Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (a “reckless, dangerous and provocative act”) and US President Donald Trump (“all options are on the table”) — but their harsh words are unlikely to deter the rogue state from similar moves in the future.
Nuclear strategy expert Vipin Narang says shooting a missile over Japan was a “nakedly provocative” act, but it is merely the latest in a long line of military moves designed to consolidate Kim Jong-un’s power.
The rogue nation’s nuclear strategy boils down to a high-stakes gamble: that the threat of its intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) will be enough to deter the US from firing up its nuclear arsenal.
Associate Professor Narang said North Korea developed its weapons with three main objectives in mind: to avoid a regime change, to obstruct the reunification of the Korean Peninsula on Western terms, and to deter disarmament.
Mr Kim doesn’t possess the military means to wipe out all of the US military bases in its vicinity, such as in Guam or Japan, so it has focused on developing its ICBMs, which now have the potential to strike the US mainland.
The US has made it clear that it would only use its nuclear weapons in response to a direct attack or if it had knowledge of an imminent threat to it or its allies.
But North Korea has used more or less the same arguments in its justification for building up its arsenal — except in its propaganda, the US is the aggressor.
It boils down to North Korea’s risky calculation that the US it not willing to risk a nuclear missile attack on Los Angeles, San Francisco or Chicago in retaliation for an attack on a US military base in Asia.
“It’s important to remember [Kim Jong-un is] not going to use nuclear weapons in a bolt out of the blue,” Assoc Prof Narang, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told news.com.au.
“If he can hold the US homeland at risk, the calculation changes … the US has to think twice.”
While Kim Jong-un risked retaliation, there was a “real logic” to his strategy of putting US metropolises in the firing line.
“He’s betting that the US is not willing to risk a single city. The amount it’s willing to risk is low,” he said.
“It gives the US pause before it starts thinking about regime change.
“The ICBM deters America. That way, the [North Korean] state survives and the regime survives.”
Despite the logic behind this deterrence strategy, the risk of nuclear war was heightened by Mr Kim’s recklessness in firing a missile over Japan.
“It looks like this [missile] flew short of maximum range. What if there was a failure and it landed on a population centre? What if it hit something? What if it landed on Japan? That’s the real risk,” Assoc Prof Narang said.
“These missiles are still in the developmental stage. If there was a catastrophic failure, then it’s an act of war.”
He added that yesterday’s event was an attempt by North Korea to “normalise” missile tests over Japan and use its limited number of missiles for maximum political effect.
North Korea had an advantage over the US because it managed to “speak with one voice”, while the US sent mixed signals in response to the hermit kingdom’s threats.
Mr Trump has threatened to rain “fire and fury” on North Korea if it threatens the US or its allies, but his military advisers have walked back these comments.
The President’s former chief strategist Steve Bannon embarrassed his boss earlier in the month when he told liberal magazine The American Prospect that “there’s no military solution” to the conflict.
“He was undermined by his own ambiguity,” Assoc Prof Narang said of the President.
The provocative missile launch has also embarrassed Mr Trump because he suggested only last week that his tough talk towards the nation had made a difference because Mr Kim was “starting to respect” the US.
The one benefit of the rapidly developing weapons program is that the world is starting to take Mr Kim more seriously.
Assoc Prof Narang said it was also important not to see stumbles in its missile tests as “failures” because the “impressive” rapid advancement in its weapons program proved North Korea was improving its technology with each launch.
“They learn from every test, even the ones that blow up,” he said.
“We need to stop looking at him like he’s incompetent or crazy. Everything he’s done is rational.”
Originally published as Why North Korea is stepping up its military provocations
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