Prime Minister’s ‘G’day Emmanuel’ moment may have led to rift, experts say

It looked like a chummy meeting between world leaders, but did Scott Morrison’s photo with the French President lead to the war of words.

Did a handshake lead to France President Emmanuel Macron’s explosive comments accusing Prime Minister Scott Morrison of lying about a contentious submarine deal?

That’s the conclusion of an expert on Franco-Australian affairs who has also said the ripping up of the $90 billion contract for a French firm to build a new fleet of submarines, in favour of nuclear powered vessels from Britain and the US could be “costly for Australia”

Mr Morrison’s trip to the G20 summit in Rome and COP26 climate talks in Glasgow has been overshadowed by the ongoing spat between the Australian and French governments over the cancellation of the submarines.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison interrupts French President Emmanuel Macron in Rome on Saturday. Picture: Adam Taylor.

France has insisted that it was in the dark about Australia ditching its subs right up until the September AUKUS announcement made jointly by Mr Morrison, US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Asked by Australian journalists at the G20 on the weekend if Mr Morrison had lied about the deal’s ditching, Mr Macron said “I don’t think, I know”.

Mr Morrison has strongly pushed back on Mr Macron’s comments. Now text messages have emerged, reportedly from the French President suggesting he did indeed know the subs deal could soon be sunk.

FRance's's President Emmanuel Macron gestures as he addresses media representatives at a press conference in Rome Picture: Ludovic MARIN / AFP

‘Trick’ that backfired

Talking to news.com.au, Dr Romain Fathi, a historian at Flinders University and Paris’ Sciences Po university said the deterioration in relations between Paris and Canberra on the weekend could at least partly be explained by an unexpected G20 run-in between Mr Macron and Mr Morrison.

The PM interrupted the President on Saturday when Mr Macron was talking to a number of other people.

Up until that point the pair had not spoken publicly at the G20 although they were snapped having coffee the next day.

“He was having a chat with someone. I went up and just put my arm on his shoulder, I said, ‘G’day Emmanuel’ and ‘look forward to catching up over the next couple of days’,” Mr Morrison told reporters.

“And he was happy to exchange those greetings. It’s just the process of being on the road back.”

The PM’s official photographer was there as well to capture the moment with those photos then distributed to journalists.

Dr Fathi conceded that world leaders are prone to bump into each other at major events.

“But they are not on g’day terms,” he told news.com.au.

“It could have been a simple hello, but Mr Morrison had the office photographer take a shot of him (and) the President in order to convey to the Australian public, in one image, that all is well with France.”

But Dr Fathi said they might have backfired.

“As Mr Macron did not wish to see the Australian press being tricked in such a way, he took a very bold and unusual decision and went on to address the Australian press directly – and in English – to set the record straight.”

Dr Fathi said it was “highly unusual” for a leader to speak to the press of a foreign country outside of more controlled situations.

“Usually, global summits are highly codified and choreographed diplomatic events that require months of preparation.

“The message that Mr Macron wished to convey to Australians is that it is going to take a lot more than an impromptu picture with their PM to salvage the relationship between France and Australia.”

The pair were more genial on Sunday before Macron then went and said Mr Morrison was a liar. Picture: Adam Taylor

Summit theatrics

Dr Erin Watson-Lynn, an international relations consultant who has been a delegate to six G20s, told news.com.au there was “probably some truth” to Mr Macron being riled by Mr Morrison’s g’day moment.

“We don’t know all the meetings that are going on in the sidelines but there is a theatre to summitry and there’s all sorts of symbolism and that plays a big role.

“While this was an opportunity for the PM to offer an olive branch, equally it was an opportunity for Macron to express his disappointment.

“It works both ways,” Dr Watson-Lynn said.

Mr Macron’s comments about the PM came days after President Biden met his French counterpart to draw a line under the submarine affair and the rift it caused between Paris and Washington DC.

“I was under the impression that France had been informed long before that the deal was not going through. Honest to God, I did not know you had not,” Mr Biden told Mr Macron.

He added the handling of the submarine shift was “clumsy” although he didn’t elaborate on whether that was the fault of US officials or Australia.

Both Morrison and Macron are now in Glasgow at the COP26 summit. Picture: Ian Forsyth / POOL / AFP

Following Mr Macron’s remarks, Mr Morrison came out all guns blazing when he touched down in Glasgow for the COP26 summit. He would not stand for “sledging” or “slurs against Australia,” he said.

He insisted that he had told Mr Macron that there were concerns over the subs deal and Australia was looking at alternatives.

A text message, purportedly from Mr Macron to Mr Morrison, later emerged. After the French leader turned down a call about the submarines from the PM, Mr Macron is said to have texted “Should I expect good or bad news for our joint submarine ambitions?’’

Mr Morrison said the text showed that France knew the deal was precarious.

Pictured with Indian PM Nerandra Modi Scott Morrison was all smiles. Picture: Adam Taylor

Macron is not happy

Dr Watson-Lynn said it was likely Paris was well aware that the submarine sulk only has a certain shelf life and at some point France and Australia have to resume normal affairs.

“Macron knows that in the current climate, balancing China is far more important than the submarine deal.”

She also said that given the French possession of New Caledonia was close to Australia in the Pacific there was a geographic reason why the two countries needed to get along.

“But there’s a deeply personal element to this.

“Macron is probably upset because he’s saying he hasn’t heard (about the subs) in advance.

“We don’t know the truth about that. But while we have all of these reasons to maintain our relationship, maybe Macron’s a little bit pissed off.”

Some commentators have also said the ongoing tension is less to do with a forced handshake and more to do with an imminent French election. There is a domestic audience for Mr Macron to play too and lashing Mr Morrison could work well.

Dr Watson-Lynn contrasted the friction between Mr Morrison and Mr Macron and the far more relaxed photos of the PM with Indian counterpart Narendra Modi. Again, she said, it’s down to the summit theatre.

“There are some really great photos of Morrison and Modi together and that’s about showing Australia and India are working towards a trade agreement and are in solidarity with each other in the broader China global strategic competition.”

Dr Fathi said it could cost billions to solve the Paris situation.

“The fall out with France is going to be costly for Australia.

“What is urgently needed is for French and Australian diplomats and high-level officials to have long and meaningful discussions as to the nature of their relationship.”

The Prime Minister’s Office has been contacted for comment.

Originally published as Prime Minister’s ‘G’day Emmanuel’ moment may have led to rift, experts say