Traders’ Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead

Local shares had a strong week led by the retail, telco, property and bank stocks.

Midway upon the journey of our life, I found myself within a forest dark,For the straightforward pathway had been lost. Via Getty

What grabbed the headlines last week?

Some soft record highs for share markets including the ASX late last week.

The S&P/ASX200 closed up Friday, gaining 69.70 points or 0.88% to 7,959.30 and setting a new 100-day high.

Small caps did well. Miners did not.

Wee caps outperformed in the US, as well, with the Russell 2000 surging 3.6% in the states, as your mega-tech names like Nvidia and Tesla faltered.

In Australia, investors continued to assess the outlook for Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy amid expectations that it will lag behind its peers in the global rate-cutting cycle due to persistent domestic inflation

The top-performing stocks in the local benchmark on Friday index were Domain Holdings Australia (ASX:DHG) and Genesis Energy (ASX:GNE), up 6.9% and 5.9% respectively.

Share markets about the place largely rose last week. In Honkers the Hang Seng surged. And there were casual new highs in the US, Japan, Canada and at home.

Australian shares surged late in the week as expectations for Fed rate cuts were reinforced by comments from Fed Chair Powell and soft US inflation data and uncertainty about the impact of the French election was further unwound.

Over the last five days, the benchmark ASX200 index has gained 1.75% and is currently 0.12% off of its 52-week high.

The ASX Small Ordinaries (XSO) index ended last week ahead by 2.8%, while the ASX Emerging Companies (XEC) index soared by 2.7%.

ASX Sectors last week

Meanwhile, in Toronto, the S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.7% to close at a record high of 22,674 on Friday, marking its third consecutive day of gains, amid broad-based increases led by the materials sector.

US shares rose 0.9% for the week helped by a healthy rotation away from high flying tech stocks to underperforming small caps and value shares spurred by increasing confidence in Fed rate cuts.

Wall Street ended close to record levels on Friday, as earning season kicked off with the major banks in focus.

The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, after touching all-time high of the 5,655 level during the session.

The Nasdaq 100 also rose by 0.5%, rebounding from its worst day since April.

The Dow Jones jumped 247 point, finishing over the 40,000 mark for the second time, after it last hit the level on May 17. JPMorgan shares fell 1.2% despite posting higher-than-expected revenue driven by increased investment banking fees. Citigroup stock dropped 1.8% even after beating revenue and profit forecasts.

Wells Fargo shares crashed 6% after reporting lower-than-expected net interest income. For the week, the Dow led the gains, jumping 1%, followed by the S&P 500 (+0.6%) while the Nasdaq 100 fell (-0.5%).

Shares in the EU rose 1.3% and along with the Euro are back where they were before the EU elections. Japanese shares rose 0.7% and Chinese shares rose 1.2%.

Helped by the upbeat shenanigans on Wall Street, and hopes the resumption of falling inflation in the states will happen here, local shares had a strong week led by the retail, telco, property and bank stocks.

Aussie bond yields dropped on lower US inflation.

Oil, metal and iron ore prices fell but the Aussie dollar hit fresh six month highs as the greenback fell.

The week ahead

Japan isn't going to work on Monday.

China, however, has to face up to some hard truths, like the fact its economy likely slowed in Q2. China’s economy is forecast to grow by 1.1% on a quarterly basis in the three months to June.

Despite a swag of attempts to wake up the snoozing economy, Beijing has been unable turn things around.

The property crisis is still a crisis and the stock market is still struggling, says Peter McGuire, CEO XM Australia.

"Investor and consumer confidence therefore remain low, weighing on business and household spending. Industrial production has started to show some signs of life this year, but retail sales have been sluggish."

We'll find out versions of the truth when China's June industrial production, retail sales, unemployment rate, and fixed asset investments all drop on Monday, alongside the China's Communist Party’s Third Plenum. Yikes.

The highlight at home is jobless numbers.

Inflation reads in Canada, the UK, New Zealand, and Japan, while trade data drops for India, the EU, Italy, Japan, and Switzerland.

The Economic Calendar

Monday July 15 – Friday July 19

MONDAY
Japan Market Holiday
China (Mainland) GDP (Q2)
China (Mainland) Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Fixed
Asset Investment, Unemployment (Jun)
Indonesia Trade (Jun)
Germany Retail Sales (May)
India Trade (Jun)
India WPI (Jun)
Eurozone Industrial Production (May)

TUESDAY
China (Mainland) Communist Party of China Third Plenum
Japan Tertiary Industry Index (May)
South Korea Export Prices (Jun)
Germany Wholesale Prices (Jun)
Italy Inflation (Jun, final)
Eurozone Balance of Trade (May)
Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)
Italy Balance of Trade (May)
Canada Inflation (Jun)
United States Retail Sales (Jun)
United States Business Inventories (May)
United States NAHB Housing Market Index (Jul)

WEDNESDAY
India Market Holiday
Singapore Non-oil Domestic Exports (Jun)
United Kingdom Inflation (Mar)
Indonesia BI Interest Rate Decision
Eurozone Inflation (Jun, final)
United States Building Permits (Jun, prelim)
United States Housing Starts (Jun)
United States Industrial Production (Jun)

THURSDAY
Japan Trade (Jun)
Australia Employment Change (Jun)
United Kingdom Labour Market Report (May)
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision
South Africa SARB Interest Rates Decision

FRIDAY
New Zealand Inflation (Q2)
Japan Inflation (Jun)
Malaysia GDP (Q2, prelim)
China (Mainland) FDI (Jun)
Germany PPI (Jun)
United Kingdom Retail Sales (Jun)
Eurozone Current Account (May)
Spain Balance of Trade (May)
Canada Retail Sales (May)

Originally published as Traders’ Diary: Everything you need to get ready for the week ahead