Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens

Good morning! Here’s everything you need to know before the ASX flings open its doors and begins trading today.

Everything you need to know before the ASX opens. Pic: Getty Images.

Good morning everyone and welcome to Rise and Shine on Friday, June 27, 2025. Here’s what you should know before the ASX opens today…

At 7am AEST Friday, ASX futures were pacing for a strong open, up by 0.6%.

Wall Street hits the gas

Overnight, the S&P 500 came within a whisker of an all-time closing high, wrapping up the session just a lazy three points shy of its February peak.  The Dow lifted 0.9%, and the Nasdaq surged 1%.

STOCK INDICES	Value	Change
ASX 200 (previous day)	8,551	-0.10%
S&P 500	6,141	0.80%
Dow Jones	43,387	0.94%
Nasdaq Comp	20,168	0.97%
Euro Stoxx 50	5,244	-0.15%
UK FTSE	8,736	0.19%
German DAX	23,649	0.64%
French CAC	7,557	-0.01%

The cheer squad was led by Big Tech. Meta and Amazon jumped by 2%. Nvidia briefly flirted with a jaw-dropping US$3.8 trillion market cap before cooling off.

But under the hood, it was a classic case of bad news being good news.

US GDP for Q1 got revised down to just 0.5%, and US consumer spending was the weakest since Covid’s opening act.

But in this market, that kind of soft data is practically a love letter, it makes a rate cut more likely without flashing full-blown panic.

Retail investors have poured in to the US stock market, scooping up US$3.2 billion in equities just this past week. Just two months ago, sentiment was in the dumps.

Now, experts say, there’s a sense the market’s entering the late-stage bull cycle where logic starts to take a back seat to momentum.

VIX chills out

Remember when the VIX was storming above 50 back in April and everyone was clutching their pearls over tariffs, Middle East blow-ups, and AI-driven doom spirals?

That feels like a lifetime ago. The so-called “fear gauge” is now lounging at 16.6, its lowest since February and market volatility has all but disappeared.

It’s a calming signal, sure, but maybe too calming.

Goldman Sachs and a few other analysts are warning that the back half of the year could see volatility sneak back in, especially if inflation flares, and tariffs return.

The Fed’s talking, but not quite ready to dance

This week, a couple of governors cracked the window open for a July rate cut, but most of the Fed crew are still aiming for September.

Two cuts are now fully priced in for 2025, and traders are already tossing bets on a third.

The key moment comes tonight: the PCE inflation print. If it comes in cool, the September cut is all but gift-wrapped.

If it runs hot, expect some chin-scratching and a few nervous glances toward bond yields.

The White House is now reportedly floating the idea of replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in 2026, potentially as early as September or October.

And finally...

All roads lead to tonight’s US PCE inflation print, due around 10:30pm AEST.

The market is hoping for a number soft enough to validate all this dovish optimism.

CBA expects core PCE to tick up from 2.5% to 2.6%.

Why does this matter? Because PCE is the Fed’s inflation gospel.

If it cools off or even just stays tame, the September cut becomes a sure bet.

If it creeps higher, the market might get a bit itchy and yields could start climbing again, putting a little pressure on those frothy equity valuations.

Commodity/forex/crypto market prices

Price (US)	Move
Gold:	$3,328.22	-0.14%
Silver:	$36.65	1.06%
Iron ore:	$94.48	-0.04%
Nickel:	$15,150.00	0.50%
Copper:	$10,097.20	2.43%
Zinc:	$2,776.55	2.48%
Lithium carbonate 99.5% Min China Spot:	$8,150.00	0.00%
Oil (WTI):	$65.18	0.39%
Oil (Brent):	$67.72	0.05%
AUD/USD:	$0.6549	0.60%
Bitcoin:	$107,445	-0.25%

What got you talking

Also in the news…

Lithium might be trading at cyclical lows, leading to some pretty grim headlines, but positive signs are emerging.

Lynas (ASX:LYC) CEO Amanda Lacaze says time is not right for a mega merger with MP Materials, which would create a "western champion" for rare earths.

Osteoarthritis drug developer Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals (ASX:PAR) says its purchase of an oral drug candidate won't distract it from its key phase III knee trial.

TRADING HALTS

Astron Corporation (ASX:ATR) – work plan application update
Percheron Therapeutics (ASX:PER) – pending licensing deal
PointsBet Holdings (ASX:PBH) – outcome of scheme meeting
hummgroup (ASX:HUM) – potential acquisition offer
Xero Limited (ASX:XRO) – corporate transaction and equity raise

At Stockhead, we tell it like it is. While Brightstar Resources is a Stockhead advertiser, it did not sponsor this article.

This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.

Originally published as Rise and Shine: Everything you need to know before the ASX opens