Closing Bell: Market sinks as traders brace for RBA and US Fed meetings
The ASX 200 fell in a subdued session as traders await a double whammy of RBA and US Fed meetings this week, with monetary policy diverging.
ASX slips 0.12%, closing near session highs
Lithium gains, while other commodities slide
Strong rotation into defensive sectors ahead of RBA and US Fed meetings this week
ASX bides its time ahead of rate decisions
Aussie markets are 94% sure the RBA will hold rates at its meeting tomorrow.
Over the pond, traders are almost as certain – 88.4% – that the US Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, despite US inflation rising to 2.8% year-on-year in September.
That’s left the ASX 200 on uncertain ground, caught between the spectre of up to two interest rate hikes forecast for the RBA next year and a round of easing out of the US.
Commonwealth Bank head of interest rates Adam Donaldson said, “The market has come to the conclusion that the Reserve Bank won’t be cutting rates any further.
“Basically, from February onwards, the market is starting to price some risk that rates will go up.”
The uncertainty has engineered a general selldown on the ASX 200 today, which fell 0.12% with 8 of 11 sectors lower.
Only defensive sectors showed any life, with a strong rotation into telecoms and a lesser move into real estate and financials.
Telstra (ASX:TLS) climbed 1.53%, National Storage (ASX:NSR) added 2.01% and CSL (ASX:CSL) tipped up just 0.92%.
Lithium builds momentum
UBS reckons the time may be right to rotate back into lithium stocks.
The multinational investment bank upgraded major US lithium stock Albemarle Corp to a buy rating on Friday last week.
“We see a combination of higher energy storage demand and years of slower western capacity additions now pushing lithium markets into deficit later in 2026,” UBS analysts wrote.
The NYSE-listed stock gained 5% in trade on Friday night.
Lithium stocks on the ASX are enjoying similarly bullish sentiment.
Liontown (ASX:LTR) surged 14% by day’s end. Wildcat Resources (ASX:WC8), a dual-play lithium and gold company, jumped 7.14%.
Heavyweight PLS Group (ASX:PLS) – once Pilbara Minerals – joined the fun, adding 5.79%.
Mineral Resources (ASX:MIN) wasn’t to be left out, climbing 2.63%, while IGO (ASX:IGO) tipped up just 1.23%.
That wasn’t the full story, of course. Materials fell -0.8% by end of trade, after all.
Profit-taking hit precious metal and uranium stocks.
Nova Minerals (ASX:NVA) dropped 17.24%, Andean Silver (ASX:ASL) 11.72%, and Boss Energy (ASX:BOE) 4.93%.
Boss copped a re-rating from the S&P Dow Jones, dropping it from the ASX S&P200 in the December quarter.
Iron ore and rare earths didn’t escape the chopping block. FENIX (ASX:FEX) fell 7.61% while Lynas (ASX:LYC) took a 3.93% haircut.
Amongst the big caps, Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) and BHP (ASX:BHP) slid about 0.8%. Newmont (ASX:NEM) fell 2.21%, while Fortescue (ASX:FMG) tipped down just 0.41%.
ASX Leaders
Today’s best performing stocks (including small caps):
| Code | Name | Last | % Change | Volume | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAS | Bass Oil Ltd | 0.07 | 106% | 36804173 | $10,859,155 |
| ANX | Anax Metals Ltd | 0.011 | 38% | 3446642 | $7,062,461 |
| DAF | Discovery Alaska Ltd | 0.018 | 29% | 75000 | $3,279,286 |
| DMG | Dragon Mountain Gold | 0.01 | 25% | 678500 | $3,157,373 |
| AEI | Aeris Environmental | 0.06 | 22% | 237505 | $12,083,133 |
| DGR | DGR Global Ltd | 0.042 | 20% | 1838694 | $36,529,359 |
| AOA | Ausmon Resorces | 0.003 | 20% | 2540000 | $3,286,534 |
| M2R | Miramar | 0.003 | 20% | 13290593 | $2,987,308 |
| PAT | Patriot Resourcesltd | 0.057 | 19% | 1757273 | $7,921,078 |
| NWM | Norwest Minerals | 0.013 | 18% | 1300000 | $11,331,176 |
| GAS | State GAS Limited | 0.035 | 17% | 80000 | $11,785,526 |
| YAR | Yari Minerals Ltd | 0.0105 | 17% | 1933518 | $7,555,174 |
| CHM | Chimeric Therapeutic | 0.0035 | 17% | 16000187 | $10,926,409 |
| PRM | Prominence Energy | 0.0035 | 17% | 125013 | $2,667,529 |
| RGL | Riversgold | 0.007 | 17% | 518054 | $12,502,276 |
| SRH | Saferoads Holdings | 0.115 | 16% | 32000 | $4,326,835 |
| BPM | BPM Minerals | 0.18 | 16% | 287846 | $17,148,217 |
| AUG | Augustus Minerals | 0.044 | 16% | 795954 | $7,841,660 |
| EMU | EMU NL | 0.045 | 15% | 250000 | $11,160,456 |
| FAU | First Au Ltd | 0.008 | 14% | 5401940 | $18,350,393 |
| LCY | Legacy Iron Ore | 0.008 | 14% | 3164785 | $68,334,298 |
| SHE | Stonehorse Energy Lt | 0.008 | 14% | 1809709 | $4,791,046 |
| AGD | Austral Gold | 0.105 | 14% | 357058 | $57,143,583 |
| EPI | Epiminder Ltd | 1.145 | 14% | 416299 | $176,062,227 |
| SUM | Summitminerals | 0.041 | 14% | 725404 | $5,179,425 |
In the news…
Bass Oil (ASX:BAS) has locked in a three-year gas supply deal with Origin Energy (ASX:ORG), one of the three largest energy utilities in Australia. BAS will provide up to 12.045 petajoules of gas starting in 2026.
The deal hinges on bringing the Vanessa Gas project back into full production, and could unlock enough capital to advance BAS’s larger, deeper gas resource on the PEL 182 licence.
Anax Metals (ASX:ANX) has secured $2.4 million in a placement with mining group Gold Valley Pilbara Pty Ltd at a strong 37.5% premium to its last closing price.
ANX has also lined up a $3.5m loan facility with major shareholder Jetosea Pty Ltd. The company has repayed a $3.3 million loan owing to Mineral Development Partners Pte Ltd with the new facility.
The fresh funding will go to an updated definitive feasibility study for the Whim Creek copper project, which has already been fully permitted.
Discovery Alaska (ASX:DAF) has inked an HoA to acquire the Boulder Creek gold-silver project in Idaho, US.
The 640-hectare lease is prospective for epithermal vein-hosted gold and silver as well as disseminated gold and silver mineralisation.
DAF has already reviewed historical exploration data collected by Nerco, Inc in the 1980’s. The company is now planning its follow-up activities to investigate areas of interest.
ASX Laggards
Today’s worst performing stocks (including small caps):
| Code | Name | Price | % Change | Volume | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSL | Titanium Sands Ltd | 0.006 | -25% | 7239958 | $18,757,978 |
| KOB | Kobaresourceslimited | 0.047 | -22% | 1659624 | $11,920,295 |
| AUK | Aumake Limited | 0.002 | -20% | 19729086 | $7,558,397 |
| CYQ | Cycliq Group Ltd | 0.004 | -20% | 20000 | $2,302,583 |
| OVT | Ovanti Limited | 0.004 | -20% | 198240006 | $27,578,948 |
| LMS | Litchfield Minerals | 0.47 | -20% | 461346 | $33,042,297 |
| NVA | Nova Minerals Ltd | 1.06 | -19% | 3619674 | $540,497,484 |
| SRL | Sunrise | 6.25 | -19% | 703220 | $1,017,373,271 |
| ENT | Enterprise Metals | 0.005 | -17% | 78854 | $8,964,904 |
| MPR | MPR Australia Ltd | 0.005 | -17% | 1593581 | $2,062,220 |
| SMX | Strata Minerals | 0.02 | -17% | 2636508 | $6,185,452 |
| TEM | Tempest Minerals | 0.005 | -17% | 324905 | $6,611,258 |
| USC | Us1Criticalminsltd | 0.01 | -17% | 2897382 | $9,766,229 |
| CKA | Cokal Ltd | 0.062 | -15% | 1332351 | $78,763,276 |
| AUA | Audeara | 0.029 | -15% | 714654 | $6,150,231 |
| DRE | Dreadnought Resources | 0.024 | -14% | 14838177 | $156,626,000 |
| PLC | Premier1 Lithium Ltd | 0.006 | -14% | 149561 | $5,630,985 |
| ZMM | Zimi Ltd | 0.006 | -14% | 90008 | $5,293,357 |
| PKD | Parkd Ltd | 0.031 | -14% | 91598 | $4,737,625 |
| AGR | Aguia Res Ltd | 0.019 | -14% | 4635334 | $36,258,041 |
| IND | Industrialminerals | 0.135 | -13% | 85088 | $12,449,988 |
| ALM | Alma Metals Ltd | 0.007 | -13% | 1370000 | $14,937,669 |
| FBR | FBR Ltd | 0.0035 | -13% | 9825390 | $26,747,890 |
| FCT | Firstwave Cloud Tech | 0.007 | -13% | 7789219 | $15,220,514 |
| GCM | Green Critical Min | 0.014 | -13% | 18222460 | $46,062,023 |
In Case You Missed It
Tinybeans (ASX:TNY) has posted a sharp early revenue uplift and strengthened its US leadership team after last month’s acquisition of US journaling platform Qeepsake.
Pure One (ASX:PH2) has invited shareholders to participate in a $5.5m raise to support an IPO for subsidiary Eastern Gas Corporation.
Terra Metals (ASX:TM1) drilling intersects new magmatic sulphide zone at the Southwest SW1 prospect in WA with similarities to Sudbury Igneous Complex in Canada.
Bubalus Resources (ASX:BUS) has fired up a drilling rig at the Avon Plains gold project in Victoria, set to drill 1200m into a gold-bearing reef structure.
Miramar Resources (ASX:M2R) has raised funds and is planning to drill two key gold targets at the Gidji JV in early 2026.
Nordic Resources’ (ASX:NNL) drilling to the southwest of Kopsa in Finland has returned strong intersections including a best of 1m at 31.9g/t gold.
St George Mining (ASX:SGQ) has struck the thickest high-grade rare earth and niobium result yet at Araxá in Brazil, stretching more than 115m from surface.
Audeara (ASX:AUA) received a $560,000 purchase order from its largest Australian wholesale customer, marking the company’s biggest single order to date.
Trading Halts
Alchemy Resources (ASX:ALY) – Valley Bore assay results
Anagenics (ASX:AN1) – cap raise
Astral Resources (ASX:AAR) – cap raise
Austin Metals (ASX:AYT) – cap raise
Australian Oil Company (ASX:AOK) – acquisition agreement and settlement deed
Bayan Mining and Minerals (ASX:BMM) – proposed acquisition
Frontier Energy (ASX:FHE) – cap raise
Somerset Minerals (ASX:SMM) – cap raise
Sun Silver (ASX:SS1) – Mineral Resource upgrade
Talga Group (ASX:TLG) – cap raise
Torque Metals (ASX:TOR) – bought deal funding arrangement
Findi (ASX:FND) – extension of suspension pending strategic investment
This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions.
Originally published as Closing Bell: Market sinks as traders brace for RBA and US Fed meetings
