Interest rates expected to rise again when RBA meets on Tuesday

Experts are predicting more pain for mortgage holders when Philip Lowe and the RBA meet next week.

Experts are predicting more pain for mortgage holders when the Reserve Bank of Australia meets for the final time this year on Tuesday.

It’s widely expected that the board will confirm an increase to the official interest rate of a quarter of a per cent.

This would mean the eighth consecutive rate rise this year, with the official cash rate currently sitting at 2.85 per cent amid fears inflation could peak at eight per cent by the end of the year.

Such rate increases have had punishing effect on mortgage holders, with rate rises adding $1618 to monthly minimum repayments on a $1 million mortgage since May.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to increase the official cash rate when it meets next week. (Photo by Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images)

Earlier in the week RBA Governor Philip Lowe issued an apology to Australians who took out home loans on the basis of his earlier assurances that rates would not rise until 2024.

Sally Tindall, research director at RateCity, said the while the RBA would be considering a pause, the most likely scenario would be a moderate increase.

“A quarter of a percentage hike is the most likely outcome, because we don’t have a meeting in January, so there will be a natural pause at the start of next year when mortgage rates and mortgage repayments have some time to catch up,” Ms Tindall said.

“They just can’t take their foot off the accelerator entirely,” she said, adding there was a “long way to go” to get inflation down to between two and three per cent.

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe apologised for comments earlier in the year in which he promised rates would not rise until 2024. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

Ms Tindall said that for an average borrower with a $500,000 mortgage a quarter of a per cent rise would add $75 to their monthly repayments, but taking into consideration the previous seven rises, the average borrower is paying an extra $834 a month since the increases began.

“That’s a lot of extra money to find in your monthly budget, particularly when cost of living is continuing to surge,” she said.

Ms Tindall said those who overstretched themselves to get into the property market would be feeling the heat the most, but said there was a scarcity of data from banks of mortgage defaults.

RateCity Research Director Sally Tindall said she expected the Reserve Bank to lift rates when the board met on Tuesday. Picture: Tim Hunter.

“Defaults take a while to come out in the data,” she said, adding that people tend to make cutbacks in other parts of their budget and prioritise repayments.

Ms Tindall also said the rate hikes have come “hard and fast,” and there was a lag of two to three months in terms of when it struck people’s repayments.

“We’re not likely to see a rise in defaults just yet,” she said.

Originally published as Interest rates expected to rise again when RBA meets on Tuesday