Australia adding ‘a new migrant every single minute’
Australia is adding a migrant “every single minute” as new figures suggest the PM’s promise to return to “sustainable” levels has already been broken.
Economy
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Australia is adding a new migrant “every single minute” amid claims the government’s promise to bring the numbers back to “sustainable” levels has already been broken.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Friday suggests the government has already exceeded its net overseas migration target of 395,000 for the most recent financial year, with a month’s worth of arrivals still to be counted, according to analysis by the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA).
The analysis is based on net permanent and long-term arrivals data, which is calculated differently to the all-important net overseas migration number that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised to cut back.
The IPA contends the net permanent and long-term arrivals data historically has closely tracked and is reliable predictor of net overseas migration numbers, which are reported with a significant six-month lag by the ABS.
The most recent full-year net overseas migration figures for 2022-23 showed the country added a record 528,000 people in the 12 months to June 30, 2023.
Facing growing political pressure, the federal government had promised to cut migration to more “sustainable” levels, with the May budget forecasting a fall to 395,000 in 2023-24 before settling at 260,000 this financial year.
The final scorecard for the 2023-24 financial year won’t be known until December — but the IPA says the apples-to-oranges comparison suggests the government has already blown through the 395,000 budget target.
According to the IPA’s analysis, the May net permanent and long-term arrivals intake of 25,940 was the second highest May on record, behind 31,310 in May 2023, bringing the total since July 2023 to 445,510.
Between January and May, the net intake was 242,750, the highest first five months of a calendar year on record, blowing past the previous record of 208,090 set last year.
Since the start of the year, 1607 net migrants — roughly four 747 passenger jets — have arrived in the country every day. “That is more than a new net migrant every single minute of every single day,” the IPA said.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has pledged to cut net overseas migration to 160,000 per year if elected.
“The latest ABS data confirms the federal government is simply not interested in delivering on its promise to reduce Australia’s record migration surge, and will dramatically overshoot its net overseas migration commitment,” IPA senior fellow Dr Kevin You said in a statement.
“The Prime Minister’s commitment to halve the annual migration intake, made just two months ago, is not worth the paper it is written on, and is yet another broken promise from a government which is making it harder for mainstream Australians to get ahead. The latest data reinforces that Australia’s migration program is being run in the interests of big business and universities … not the Australian people.”
It’s understood that the government, however, believes it is on track to halve net overseas migration from its record high by the end of June next year, with preliminary estimates for the September and December quarters suggesting numbers peaked in September and are now falling.
The government does not consider net permanent and long-term arrivals a reliable indicator of net overseas migration due to issues with double counting.
For example, a migrant counts in the net permanent and long-term arrivals figure every time they leave the country, such as leaving for the Christmas break and returning, but is only counted in net overseas migration on their initial date of arrival in Australia.
The Department of Home Affairs declined to comment on whether it believed the 395,000 budget target would be met.
In the first two quarters of the financial year, the net overseas migration figure was 258,000.
In order for the government to reach its commitment of 395,000 for the rest of the year, the net intake would need to be 137,000, or 68,500 for each of the remaining two quarters.
The average quarterly intake under Albanese government has been 122,500.
Dr You said the record surge in migration came as housing and rental prices were at record highs while housing construction was at 1980s levels.
“Australians are suffering through cost-of-living crisis brought on by unplanned mass migration,” he said.
Previous IPA research has suggested Australians have been left thousands of dollars worse off on a per person basis due to mass migration, with the “vast majority” of Australia’s headline economic growth generated through increasing population.
Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has now declined for five consecutive quarters since March 2023.
Real growth of per capita GDP has been below the post-1990 long-term trend for the last eight years. Had per capita GDP growth remained on trend in that time, Australians would be $14,700 better off, the analysis suggested.
“Today, Australians are, on an individual basis, in recession and getting left further behind when the nation’s cost-of-living crisis is already acute,” said Dr You.
“Australia’s dismal economic conditions reflect the federal government’s lack of vision and ambition for the nation. Its only trick for growing the economy seems to be by increasing migration alone.”
He added that migration “has and will continue to play a critical role in Australia’s story”, but the current intake was “placing immense pressure on housing costs and our infrastructure, has not solved our worker shortage crisis and has left Australians worse off”.
The federal government has introduced a series of migration reforms, including more than doubling international student visa fees, in bid to fix the “broken system”.
It has also lifted the income threshold for temporary skilled migrants to $73,000 to ensure “wages can grow fairly” after a decade-long freeze.
“The Albanese Labor government continues to clean up the mess left by Peter Dutton and the Liberals, today taking a key step towards a fairer migration system for all Australians,” Immigration Minister Andrew Giles said in a statement earlier this month.
“After a decade of deliberate wage suppression by the Liberals, we’re delivering fairer wages for all.”
Labor also raised the annual humanitarian intake from 17,875 to 20,000 after coming into office.
Figures from the Department of Home Affairs last week revealed more than 2000 asylum seekers flew into Australia in May, the highest of any month under the Albanese government and close to the record of 2800 set in 2018.
In a speech to the Australian Institute of Family Studies (AIFS) last month, Mr Giles said Australia would “welcome our millionth refugee” in the second half of next year.
“A million people,” he said.
“I am proud to have played my part in this increase in the humanitarian program — reflecting Labor’s deep commitment to humanitarianism. The humanitarian program is literally life changing.”
Mr Giles said Mr Dutton was “more interested in fearmongering than leadership”.
“Remember when he said Victorians were scared to go out to restaurants because of African gang violence?” he said.
“Or when he said Malcolm Fraser made mistakes by accepting Lebanese Australians? At the next election, there will be a clear choice when it comes to the humanitarian program. A choice when it comes to extending our proud, shared history of global leadership, or whether Australia says no and retreats from the fair go.”
Originally published as Australia adding ‘a new migrant every single minute’
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