La Niña declaration would mark historic record for weather events in Australia
The bureau is on watch for the system which would bring increased rainfall to Australia, marking the fifth year in a row of extreme weather.
Environment
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Meteorologists have warned a La Niña is possible later this year, which would make it the fifth consecutive year of either La Nina or El Nino in Australia.
In it’s latest climate driver update, the bureau said there are signs the weather system could form over the Pacific Ocean in late 2024.
It comes less than six months after the El Nino system wrapped, and if a La Nina was declared it would be the first time ever Australia has recorded five consecutive years of La Nina and El Nino.
Despite the concerns however there is a similar likelihood that the tropical Pacific Ocean will remain neutral.
Bureau of Meteorology Climate Manager Dr Karl Braganza said the long-range forecast for June to August is showing an increased chance of above average rainfall for parts of eastern Australia, and parts of Western Australia and South Australia.
“There are roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall for most of eastern Australia, including much of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania,” Dr Braganza said.
The maximum and minimum temperatures are very likely to be above median across all states and territories for June to August.
The Bureau’s long-range forecast winter outlook will be released at the end of May, while the Spring and Summer outlooks will be released later in the year.
La Niña, along with El Niño, are part of a natural climate cycle known as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
The La Nina watch comes after residents of east coast NSW have endured a two-week stretch of rain as a result of a stubborn weather system.
Originally published as La Niña declaration would mark historic record for weather events in Australia
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