Hurricane Milton updates: Tampa Bay exposed to 15ft storm surge, ‘Waffle House Index’ enacted
Over a million US residents living less than 10 feet above sea level are warned of Hurricane Milton’s 15-foot storm surge, which could have a tsunami-like impact.
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Thousands of people are fleeing Florida as freak Hurricane Milton threatens to smash “mathematical limits” of what is meteorologically possible.
Footage of a meteorologist breaking down on camera while explaining the enormity of this weather event has quickly gone viral, with the expert seen choking back tears.
8PM EDT: This is nothing short of astronomical. I am at a loss for words to meteorologically describe you the storms small eye and intensity. 897mb pressure with 180 MPH max sustained winds and gusts 200+ MPH. This is now the 4th strongest hurricane ever recorded by pressure on… pic.twitter.com/QFdqFYFI7o
— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) October 8, 2024
Hurricane Milton is set to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday and is expected to bring destruction to areas already reeling from Hurricane Helene’s devastation 12 days ago.
The hurricane – which “could be Florida’s worst storm in a century” – soared back to Category 5 on Tuesday afternoon (US time).
It had previously weakened to a Category 4 storm but its high wind speeds saw it strengthen to the highest category for a hurricane.
In its latest update on Tuesday afternoon, the US National Hurricane Center confirmed that the hurricane has sustained wind speeds of 165 km/h (270 km/h) and is moving east-northeast at 10mp/h (161 km/h).
More than a million people have been ordered to evacuate from its path – with a further six million put under hurricane-watch warning.
The storm will be the worst to impact the Tampa area in more than 100 years if it stays on the current track, according to the National Weather Service.
Fears with major hospital in danger zone
Tampa hospital has installed a temporary flood wall that officials hope will be enough to repel Hurricane Milton. The AquaFence was used during Hurricane Helene last month, but this storm is expected to be much more ferocious.
People in the US have pointed out a painfully obvious flaw in the city as emergency services scramble to safeguard the hospital.
The area’s only trauma centre is built on an island at sea level, meaning those suffering severe injuries could soon be cut off from the city’s biggest medical unit if flood waters surge.
At a news conference held today, Governor Ron DeSantis warned locals planning to evacuate to do so immediately.
“If you’re going to get out, get out now,” he said.
Waffle House Index
The mass closures of the iconic American chain restaurant Waffle House along the Florida coast are striking fear into residents.
The famous Waffle House Index has historically been used to highlight the severity of an extreme weather event, especially in Southern US states.
The famous diner is known for being open 24/7, 365 days a year, with no exceptions and has a good reputation for always staying open even in wild weather.
Therefore, when they are shut, it can only mean one thing: disaster.
“If you get there and the Waffle House is closed? That’s really bad,” said Craig Fugate, Former Head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
There are three colours on the Waffle House Index’s scale, with Green meaning that a full menu is being served, the restaurant has full power, and the damage is minimal or absent.
Yellow means a limited menu is available, with power to the establishment either absent or provided by a generator. Food supplies are also running low.
Red is the most severe and means the Waffle House branch is shut down. It indicates severe damage, flooding and destruction to the restaurant.
In a map published this morning, a sea of red can be seen, indicating just how bad things are right now in Florida.
“Please stay safe,” the restaurant chain wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
The Waffle House Index was used most notably in 2022 in the face of Hurricane Ian, when 35 of the restaurants shut up shop.
It was also used last month during Hurricane Helene.
In preparation for the current Hurricane Milton, Waffle House announced that 25 chains in the Tampa Bay area and eight in the Fort Myers area would close on October 8th before the storm’s arrival.
“Waffle Houses are up and down the interstate systems in Florida, it’s a pretty good gauge,” Fugate told NBC back in 2022.
“Once you get into areas where the Waffle Houses are closed or have limited menus, you’re starting to get into the areas with the impacts.”
‘15-foot surge’: Major US city totally exposed
The Tampa area, home to over three million Americans, is practically tailor-made to create severe storm surges due to shallow depths in the bay and surrounding Gulf Coast, a leading US weather expert has warned.
About 50 per cent of the Tampa Bay population reside at elevations less than 10 feet above sea level, according to a 2015 study from the disaster consultants Karen Clark and Co — meaning millions of homes will be severely flooded if a forecast Milton’s 15-foot storm surge comes to fruition.
The area is currently forecast to potentially face a direct it.
Speaking to the New York Post, MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel said waves, blown by heavy wind, can “pile up” and create a deadly wall of water, akin to a tsunami.
“Storm surges are physically the same thing as a tsunami, but they’re created by wind rather than a shaking sea floor,” he explained.
“Imagine a wave coming up to a place where the water’s getting shallower and shallower and shallower. It has to slow down,” Prof Emanuel added.
“The front of it is slowing down faster than the back of it. So it’s like a traffic jam. One car starts to slow down and then the other cars pile up behind it. It’s a fluid equivalent of that.”
The shape of Tampa Bay itself also exacerbates that effect, Emanuel explained, as its narrow opening and channel further amplifies the surge’s pileup and spreads it across the surrounding region.
“The water is piling up left and right, it’s not just piling up from the bottom. You have to squeeze all that energy into progressively smaller places, and it literally just gets funnelled,” he said.
Finally, if Milton lands just north of Tampa, its counterclockwise rotation will slam wind and waves directly into the bay — just one more factor which led Prof Emanuel to agree with Karen Clark and Co.’s assessment that Tampa faces surge dangers unlike any other US city.
The area has become one of Florida’s most bustling regions since it was last hit by a hurricane — leading experts to fear residents may not be aware of what could be coming and choose to ignore evacuation orders.
“Unfortunately, there will be probably a higher proportion of people who refuse to leave when they ask to evacuate,” Prof Emanuel said.
‘This is horrific’: Weatherman breaks down on TV
As the city braces for impact, meteorologist John Morales became visibly emotional on TV as he gave an update on the “horrific” hurricane.
Video footage shared on social media shows the heartbreaking moment Mr Morales described the powerful and potentially deadly storm while live on a WTVJ telecast.
Tears welled up and Mr Morales could be heard saying: “Incredible, incredible hurricane.
“I apologise – this is just horrific.”
The weatherman continued to update viewers off-camera, but the emotion could still be heard in his voice.
The clip of the meteorologist was shared on X by NBC news anchor Chris Hush.
He wrote: “An emotional hurricane Milton update from John Morales as the storm hits Cat. 5 Status.
“Take this seriously.”
The shaken veteran of TV re-posted the tweet, and shared how the recent events have changed him.
Mr Morales: “I debated whether to share this. I did apologise on the air.”
‘A matter of life and death’
Tampa Mayor Jane Castor warned the city’s almost 400,000 residents to urgently evacuate.
She told CNN: “I can say this without any dramatisation whatsoever: if you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you are going to die.
“This is something that I have never seen in my life and anyone who was born and raised in the Tampa Bay area has never seen this before.”
Florida governor Ron DeSantis said the hurricane is already far stronger than predicted two days ago.
He said: “This is a ferocious hurricane.
“At the strength it is now, this is a really, really strong storm.
“The effects of that, not just from the storm surge but from wind damage and debris, will be really, really significant.
“This is not a storm you want to take a risk on.”
“This is nothing short of astronomical,” meteorologist Noah Bergren said as Milton reached sustained winds of 290km/h.
“I am at a loss for words to meteorologically describe to you the storm’s small eye and intensity.
“This hurricane is nearing the mathematical limit of what Earth’s atmosphere over this ocean water can produce.”
Speaking at the White House, US President Joe Biden also issued an urgent plea to residents in Florida’s evacuation zones.
“This could be the worst storm to hit Florida in over a century. God willing it won’t be, but that’s what it’s looking like right now,” he told reporters on Tuesday.
“You should evacuate now, now, now. You should have already evacuated. It’s a matter of life and death, and that’s not hyperbole,” he said as advisers briefed him on the storm.”
Mr Biden postponed an upcoming trip to Angola and Germany this week because “I just don’t think I can be out of the country at this time.”
He said he would try to reschedule the visits.
Mr Biden also condemned misinformation spreading about hurricane relief efforts ahead of next month’s US election.
“Those who do it, do it to try to damage the administration,” Mr Biden said. He said that “we can take care of ourselves” but expressed concern about the impact that it could have on the ground.
“It’s un-American. It really is. People are scared to death. People know their lives are at stake, all that they’ve worked for, all that they own, all that they value,” he said.
Terrified residents flee
The Interstate 75 northbound was bumper to bumper and moving at just 11km/h on Monday afternoon as terrified residents fled the state.
Authorities have opened up the left northbound shoulder of Interstate 75 from Tampa to Interstate 10 in north Florida, and along eastbound Interstate 4, to help motorists get away.
Almost the entirety of Florida’s west coast was under a hurricane warning early Tuesday as the Category 4 storm and its 250km/h winds crept toward the state at 9mp/h.
The strongest Atlantic hurricane on record is 1980s Allen, which reached wind speeds of 190mp/h as it moved through the Caribbean and Gulf before striking Texas and Mexico.
Forecasters warned of a possible 8-to-12-foot storm surge in Tampa Bay.
Milton’s centre could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay region, which has not endured a direct hit by a major hurricane in more than a century.
Scientists expect the system to weaken slightly before landfall, though it could retain hurricane strength as it churns across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean.
That would largely spare other states ravaged by Helene, which killed at least 230 people on its path from Florida to the Appalachian Mountains.
– With The Sun and AFP
Originally published as Hurricane Milton updates: Tampa Bay exposed to 15ft storm surge, ‘Waffle House Index’ enacted
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