Stradbroke Handicap 2017: Ratings Clearly backing favourite but odds ‘not ideal’
RATINGS expert Paul Daily has favourite Clearly Innocent on top in Saturday’s Group 1 Stradbroke but says he has to take a set against the last-start winner at the current odds.
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RATINGS expert Paul Daily has favourite Clearly Innocent on top in Saturday’s Group 1 Stradbroke but says he has to take a set against the last-start Kingsford Smith Cup winner at the current odds.
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Clearly Innocent ($4.60 fav) returned easily the highest rating of the carnival on Daily’s Ratings2Win WQR performance ratings but, as he stated last week, it wouldn’t surprise him if the horse returned a figure below that level on Saturday.
“I have him favourite in the market, but at $8, so I just have to risk him at that price,” Daily said.
“I don’t see a lot of options for them from that gate and around Doomben with the rail going back to the half-metre position. I don’t think it’s an ideal set-up.”
Daily is also opposing the Chris Waller duo Mackintosh ($7.50) and Counterattack ($8).
“I’ve got Counterattack twice the odds he is at the moment. His form has been solid enough, but there are some characteristics in his form that I don’t like. He hasn’t won for a while,” he said.
“And I can’t believe Mackintosh is $7.50. I’ve got him rated worse than 20-1. The gelding is a bleeder, which is often a plus when racing fresh, but I feel there is no value in the current quote.”
Two of the past four Stradbroke winners have come off last-start South Australian runs and Daily believes that’s a distinct possibility to happen again.
“Burning Front ($17) is the one that I think is way over the odds,” he said. “He’s a horse that loves a fight and in a Stradbroke that looks like rating below its usual level, he’s right there in my opinion.
“It automatically follows I give Hooked ($26) a chance, because he finished alongside Burning Front last time.”
The other runner Daily rates highly is Ulmann ($26).
Originally published as Stradbroke Handicap 2017: Ratings Clearly backing favourite but odds ‘not ideal’
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