Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass’ best bets and analysis

Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass discuss the top chances at Rosehill on Saturday to help you find some winners.

Kanazawa looks set to break through for another win after placing in both runs back from a spell. Picture: Grant Guy

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and The Sportsman’s form guru Shayne O’Cass debate the chances on a 10-race program at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

RAY’S BEST

Race 1, No.3: SHALSTAR

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No.8: KANAZAWA

VALUE BET

Race 5, No.8 PETULANT

SHAYNE’S BEST

Race 9, No.3: LOVE TAP

NEXT BEST

Race 8, No.8: ZING

VALUE BET

Race 10, No.10: RUBAMOS

RACE 1: TAB HIGHWAY (1100m)

Ray Thomas: Shalstar was given the run of the race and took full advantage to score a comfortable win when resuming at the Kensington midweeks last month. She has now won three of her four starts and is showing considerable potential. Likely to get all the favours from her good draw and only has to handle rain-affected conditions to go close again. King’s Trust has been improved by recent racing and his chances will soar if the track stays near the good range. Barradas raced a little greenly but still got the job done well at Dubbo. He’s won two of his three starts so far and is worth following. Well In Sight won three straight at Albury to start her career then ran down the track behind Overpass in the Inglis Sprint back in March. Resuming here but stays under notice.

Shayne O’Cass: Shalstar’s four runs have all been on good tracks - keeping in mind that she has won three of them and was a heroic second at the other one, but we are waiting to see if she handles the wet. Barrier 3 is a massive plus, so too the first use of the track. Who knows RT, she might be a mudlark? Blow Dart has enough soft track form to be less worried about. He’s been pretty unlucky sometimes this preparation but good and honest at all times. Probably deserves one if there is such a thing. Barradas has a dodgy draw but he has a heavy 10 win on the C.V which a lot of others don’t.

RACE 2: NED AUSTRALIAN WHISKY HCP (1300m)

Thomas: De An Andretti is a richly talented filly on the comeback trail after serious illness. Her trials have been brilliant, Shayno, and if she is anywhere near her best, she should beat this field. Miss Ostend is over the odds. She carried a big weight in a Federal last start and still managed to run a close third. She drops 4.5kg and handles soft track. Dehorned Unicorn didn’t have much luck last week and would be hard to beat on the quick back-up if the track stays dry. Sungblue won a Highway convincingly last start and is bred to handle a wet track.

O’Cass: De An Andretti is a sister to Libertini, a borderline duffer in the wet, so it will be interesting to see whether it is a family trait. Strange really that Libertini didn’t like it because she, and De An Andretti, are daughters of I Am Invincible out of an Encosta De Lago mare. Sungblue, cleverly-named by Your Song out of Diamond Day, gets through it very nicely thank you, well, he would have to be given that Your Song who was an absolute swimmer. Let’s see if the Highway form holds up against the city slickers but he’s a horse on the up no doubt. Ka Bling went a lot better at Newcastle than it looks on paper, RT. He’s okay on the Heavy without loving it as they say.

Hall of Famer Ron Quinton has exciting filly De An Andretti back at the races. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 3: MIDWAY HCP (1200m)

Thomas: If De An Andretti lines up in the Midway or the previous race, she is going to be hard to beat. She’s had a good grounding for her comeback with two recent barrier trials. The only negative is if we get a wet track as she hasn’t been tried on a track rated worse than good. Daralina Belle is bursting to win another race after three solid runs this campaign. She’s well-drawn and should get the right run. Oxford Tycoon has improved steadily with each run this campaign and can run a race here at good odds. Centro Storico ran well first-up and is one to watch here.

O’Cass: I suspect De An Andretti runs in the previous race or not at all. In her absence, I am happy to switch to Air Of Alsace who is a lightly-raced mare by a vastly underrated stallion - and racehorse for that matter, namely Contributer. The Jason Coyle-trained mare has won twice and has placed twice from five starts. One of those wins was a Heavy 10 at Kembla - now that’s a wet track! Speaking of Kembla, Robert and Luke Price mare Kimberley Rain is a last start winner with a lightweight. Might be too wet for Monte Ditto unfortunately but not prepared to totally rule him out. Same for Daralina Bella of course.

RACE 4: FUJITSU GENERAL HCP (2400m)

Thomas: I’m leaning to Black Queen but this is a competitive race, Shayno. She was doing her best work on the line when fifth over 2000m here last start. She’s out to her right distance range now and handles wet tracks. Our Candidate matched motors with the in-form Shameless Miss last start, going under narrowly. He’s racing well and will be hard to beat. Oceanic Flash is looking for this trip and can improve sharply. Dick Whittington ran on well last start and is another worthy consideration.

O’Cass: This is likely to be a war of attrition, the survival of the fittest even. I fancy it will come down to two horses that were hindered quite dramatically by the bias here two weeks back in Oceanic Flash and Black Queen. There are both at their peak fitness for this, I concede that Black Queen has the better Heavy track resume out of the pair but I am convinced Oceanic Flash is crying out for the 2400m and is going to peak. Monreal hasn’t won on a Heavy track but I think he gets through it, he’s just one of those dour types that will keep going up and down on the one spot, That might be enough here on the day. Yggdrasil’s best form is on Heavy tracks.

Black Queen gets out to her right distance and handles wet ground. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 5: BISLEY WORKWEAR HCP (1100m)

Thomas: Petulant tried hard but couldn’t catch the speedy Rubinocchi here last start. She is fitter for two runs back from a spell and hasn’t missed a top two finish in her five-start career. The wet track conditions won’t be an issue, she’s at the peak of fitness and has the early tactical speed to negate her awkward barrier. Shades Of Rose is unbeaten in three starts during her debut summer campaign and her recent trial win was very impressive. Pizarro showed promise when last in work and he’s had a couple of easy trials to prepare for his recent. King Kapa is racing well but needs a drier track while Devine Miss is over the odds.

O’Cass: I can’t wait to see how Shades Of Rose goes, RT. She is unbeaten in her three starts, the first two at Bathurst. I know you remember the second one, she went out like an Oakleigh Plater, I was sure she would puncture but she ended up winning by eight and breaking the course record. Huge trial winner, box one, won on Heavy - what’s not to like? Can’t be sure Pizzaro will be here on the day but so far as natural talent goes, he is at least the equal of Shades Of Roses but he will be giving her a start and she might be off and “gawne” as Anthony Manton would say. Petulant was beaten by a fitter wet-tracker first-up and then by a faster horse in the faster lane here two weeks back.

RACE 6: RANVET HCP (1500m)

Thomas: Kanazawa is bursting to win a race, Shayno. He has been placed in both runs back this campaign including his third to Jojo Was A Man at Randwick last month. Kanazawa got a long way back and was forced very wide on the turn but he ran on resolutely late. Handles heavy tracks and well placed here. Kalino scored a very easy win last week, he’s on the quick back-up and rates as the one to beat. And We Danced is another racing well and is ready to win. Lease is drawn to get the right run and will be hard to beat.

O’Cass: Kanazawa looks closer to another win than he ever has. He missed by an inch first-up then was runner-up again to repeat winner Jojo Was A Man. Those races were over 1200m and 1400m so the 1500m looks tailor-made for the son of Lonhro. Wet track is no worry with him and he could be closer too from the decent draw. Fiordland is one for one a heavy track; he was pretty dominant that day too at Gosford over the mile. If not Saturday, then next time with him. And We Danced has been costly at her two runs this time in but she has been itching to get out over a bit more ground. Lease gets any on-pace favours.

Steel Diamond is better than her latest run and is can bounce back at Rosehill. Picture: AAP Image

RACE 7: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HCP (1400m)

Thomas: Sur La Mer has struck a rich vein of form with successive wins at Warwick Farm on rain-affected tracks. She’s a good weight-carrier, handles wet tracks and drawn to get all the favours. There’s a lot to like about her, Shayno. Riduna interests me at odds as she was dominant at Newcastle last start and is an improving filly. Nicci’s Fling is well placed here and Per Inaway will be competitive.

O’Cass: Steel Diamond is a good mare; you’ll remember she ran third to Bivouac and Cosmic Force on debut in the Lonhro Plate. I’m a bit surprised and worried that she has only won three from 22, I thought she was a borderline good thing last start and was somewhat disappointing albeit racing in restricted room. Stablemate Sur La Mer has a much better strike-rate with four wins and six placings (four of them seconds) and best of all she performs on good through to heavy. Nothing wrong with what the former Kiwi filly Per Inaway has done in her two starts here; wants 1500m big time too.

RACE 8: FAB INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS HCP (1800m)

Thomas: With Wicklow saved for the next race, his trainer Chris Waller still has a powerful entry and could prepare the top four finishers. I’ve got Naval Seal on top as he is coming off an impressive start win and rates highly for this race. Easifar has drawn the rails gate and is ready to win after two good runs after a long spell. Kirkeby ran a much-improved race last start and could be the value runner. Zing hasn’t had much luck this campaign but comes right into this contest.

O’Cass: I can’t find an unluckier horse going around than Zing. She has had major excuses for her last two starts - that “gap” here last time was impossible to drive through so Tommy Berry wisely played safety first. Not sure that her wide draw is a negative, we’ll know by now either way. I liked Cadre Nu Noir a bit first-up but was on my own, he was $26 to $31 and ran accordingly. The Kentucky-bred gelding will obviously be fitter for the run and he has won up to 2400m so the step up in trip enhances his prospects this time.

Zing is due for a change of luck. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 9: VALE NICK MORAITIS HCP (1500m)

Thomas: Wicklow gets a run here and although he is staying at 1500m, he is the one to beat again. He was so impressive winning over this course and distance last start and has plenty of upside. Dual acceptor Easifar ran second to Wicklow last time out and is his main danger again if she runs in this race. Outside of the Waller stablemates, Love Tap is a big improver. He has gone back to the trials winning his heat easily at Rosehill since resuming with an unplaced Flemington run. Love Tap is unbeaten second-up and handles wet tracks. Yiyi is resuming and although he is better over further, he invariably sprints well fresh.

O’Cass: I’m very keen on Love Tap here, RT. I have a feeling that they might ride him like they did when he won the Gloaming Stakes. That is, slide over from out wide and just let him roll. He is a quality horse at his best. I’m prepared to forgive him for the Flemington failure and take him up off the massive trial win here the other day. Speaking of trials, Yiyi was a real eye-catcher in his 1030m heat also on June 20. Numbers read well, he is adept in the wet and excels fresh. Looks like a bit of a target for him from the outside looking in. Easifar has come back in tremendous shape and has a Heavy track on the board. Respecting Irish Legend on his Australia debut and his UK form before that.

RACE 10: SCHWEPPES HCP (1300m)

Thomas: At Randwick three weeks ago, Waihaha Falls, Fastconi and Tamerlane ran the placings in a 1200m race and I think they will do the same here. I’m leaning to Tamerlane who meets Waihaha Falls much better at the weights, drawn well and handles wet tracks. Waihaha Falls was dominant first-up and is a deserved favourite. Fastconi has raced his way back into form. Titanium Power is also racing in good touch. Tough closer, Shayno.

O’Cass: Rubamos might not come if it gets too wet. The barrier is also against him but if he comes, he can definitely play a role. Just got too far back first-up on a track where that was a punishable offence. Fastconi is by the same as, and is a stablemate of, Nature Strip but that’s pretty much where it ends. One is the fastest horse in the world, the other gets back and charges when it’s all over. Given you’re just back from Royal Ascot RT. I’ll let you guess which is which. Forensics’s grandson Tamerlane rarely, if ever, runs a poor race. Is he as effective second-up though? Form says maybe not. Overlord is a son of one of the best wet-trackers I can remember, Red Tracer, and has been trialling up a storm.

SATURDAY EXTRA

Best Bets with Shayne O’Cass

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 5, No.7: HEADWALL

Matthew Smith-trained gelding who has shown above-average talent in his two trials, winning the last one at Warwick Farm with consummate ease.

NEXT BEST

Race 8, No.4: MISS SCALINI

Last start Heavy 10 winner over 1350m from barrier four and on-pace bearing in mind she has come up with the same alley here (bar any scratchings).

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.5: JASIRI

First starter from the Team Hawkes camp who is ready to go to the races now - and win - off the back off a couple of sterling trials at home at Rosehill last month.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 7,14

Race 6: 1,5

Race 7: 1,6,7,8

Race 8: 4

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Golden Eagle winning jockey Koby Jennings has some nice rides at Newcastle (scratchings notwithstanding).

PORT MACQUARIE

BEST BET

Race 1, No.7: CHEROKEE CHERRY

Paul Shailer-trained filly by four-times Group 1 winner Preferment. Bursting to win a race and it looks like Saturday is the day.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.4: WOBURN ALLEY

One for the breeding buffs, this filly is by Tavistock and better still her fourth dam is the incomparable Eight Carat. Trialled well on the Beaumont track on June 15.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.4: ARE WE GOOD

Faded out from on-pace when a distant sixth to Frumos (could be anything) at Newcastle last Saturday. Entitled to go well in this style of race.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass’ best bets and analysis