Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ron Dufficy is sticking with unbeaten filly and race favourite Coolangatta in the Golden Slipper while Ray Thomas likes gun colt Sejardan.

Ron Dufficy is keen on Mazu to continue his outstanding form and take out the Darby Munro Stakes at Rosehill. Picture: Grant Guy

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss all the big race chances on Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 2, No.4: MAZU

NEXT BEST

Race 10, No.9: MALLORY

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.3: OUR INTRIGUE

RAY’S BEST

Race 3, No.5: ZEYREK

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No.1: ANAMOE

VALUE BET

Race 10, No.3: IT’S ME

GOLDEN SLIPPER FIELD

1: DAUMIER 56.5kg

Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman

Jockey: Mark Zahra Barrier: 8

Prizemoney: $1,077,000 Last five: 131

Best win: 1st Group 1 Blue Diamond

Ron Dufficy: Daumier hasn’t done too much wrong, winning the Blue Diamond last start. He’s in good hands and has to be respected.

Ray Thomas: He was tough and resolute winning a strong renewal of the Blue Diamond. Talented colt from the right stable and will be very competitive.

2: SEJARDAN 56.5kg

Trainer: Gary Portelli

Jockey: Jason Collett Barrier: 7

Prizemoney: $1,032,700 Last five: 11x31

Best win: 1st Golden Gift

Dufficy: He has a perfect draw and ticks off all the boxes except one and that is gate speed. He will be hard to hold out with any luck in running.

Thomas: Sejardan can probably settle midfield from his good draw without working too hard early. This colt is always strong at the end of his races and he’s going to be hard to hold out.

Smart colt Sejardan (white and red cap) will be closing off strongly. Picture: Getty Images

3: BEST OF BORDEAUX 56.5kg

Trainer: Kacy Fogden

Jockey: Sam Clipperton Barrier: 10

Prizemoney: $226,250 Last five: 11

Best win: 1st Group 2 Silver Slipper

Dufficy: Best Of Bordeaux is unbeaten and takes bad luck out of the equation with his ability to race on the speed. Although he hasn’t run time, he wins with style. He just has to run out the 1200m.

Thomas: Best Of Bordeaux has shown sustained speed to win the Canonbury Stakes and Silver Slipper. Brilliant colt and will be in front for a long way.

4: SHALATIN 56.5kg

Trainer: Joe Pride

Jockey: Nash Rawiller Barrier: 5

Prizemoney: $225,900 Last five: 52x73

Best performance: 2nd Golden Gift

Dufficy: I have been a fan of Shalatin all season and I don’t want to jump completely off him. He is the only maiden in the field, hoping for a drying track for him and a big improvement.

Thomas: Shalatin worked to the line well when third to Sejardan in the Todman Stakes. Improving with every run and will be charging home.

5: JACQUINOT 56.5kg

Trainer: Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr

Jockey: Hugh Bowman Barrier: 11

Prizemoney: $214,000 Last five: 153

Best performance: 3rd Group 1 Blue Diamond

Dufficy: I really like this colt. He was very impressive on debut and hasn’t had much luck in two starts since including his third in the Blue Diamond. He’s a big chance.

Thomas: Jacquinot started favourite and was unlucky when narrowly beaten into third placing behind Daumier in the Blue Diamond. Talented colt and deserves consideration.

Jacquinot is coming off an unlucky run in the Group 1 Blue Diamond. Picture: Getty Images

6: SEBONACK 56.5kg

Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes

Jockey: William Pike Barrier: 15

Prizemoney: $187,500 Last five: 14

Best win: 1st Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes

Dufficy: Sebonack is still untapped. He was having only his second start in the Blue Diamond and ran well to finish fourth. He just needs everything to go right from the draw.

Thomas: He was dominant on debut then was held up for a run in the straight but hit the line well when fourth in the Blue Diamond. Promising colt and over the odds.

7: RISE OF THE MASSES 56.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Tim Clark Barrier: 20

Prizemoney: $165,815 Last five: 1x321

Best win: 1st Group 3 Pago Pago Stakes

Dufficy: Tough and very fit competitor but ran slow time to win last week. Drawn the extreme outside barrier and just has too much to do from the wide draw.

Thomas: Rise Of The Masses is coming off a tough win last week. He has good gate speed but will need to work hard to get across from the outside draw.

8: COOLANGATTA 54.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: James McDonald Barrier: 14

Prizemoney: $1,394,000 Last five: 1x11x

Best win: 1st Magic Millions

Dufficy: I have to trust the stable, they are masters of their trade given she has had 63 days between runs. She has run brilliant time and I still feel she is the one to beat.

Thomas: Coolangatta has been the long-time Golden Slipper favourite and has been brilliant in her three wins. She has dazzling acceleration and just might prove too good again.

Revolutionary Miss has been good in all her starts including a win in the Blue Diamond Prelude and a second in the Group 1 Blue Diamond. Picture: Getty Images

9: REVOLUTIONARY MISS 54.5kg

Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy Barrier: 17

Prizemoney: $504,400 Last five: 2212

Best win: 1st Group 2 Blue Diamond Prelude

Dufficy: She has been good all the way through her preparation including her very good second in the Blue Diamond. But she has a lot of work to do from her wide barrier.

Thomas: I like this filly. You could argue she should have won the Blue Diamond and her rate of improvement each start suggests she will be very competitive.

10: RUSSIAN CONQUEST 54.5kg

Trainer: Peter and Paul Snowden

Jockey: Tommy Berry Barrier: 16

Prizemoney: $542,850 Last five: 1124

Best performance: 2nd Magic Millions

Dufficy: This filly was very competitive with Coolangatta in the Magic Millions. She ran in her semi-final on a heavy 10 and can improve but I wish she had a better draw.

Thomas: Russian Conquest has come closest to beating Coolangatta and rates highly in an open Golden Slipper. Her barrier draw isn’t ideal but she’s good enough to be in the finish.

11: QUEEN OF THE BALL 54.5kg

Trainer: Richard and Michael Freedman

Jockey: Rachel King Barrier: 3

Prizemoney: $240,625 Last five: 2x151

Best win: 1st Group 3 Black Opal

Dufficy: It’s all weather-related with her. She was back in business winning the Black Opal on a firmer surface last Sunday. She has the perfect draw but needs a drying track.

Thomas: Queen Of The Ball is on the quick back-up from her win on Sunday. If the track continues to improve then this filly comes right into the race from her good draw.

Queen Of The Ball was good winning the Black Opal last week and a drying track will boost her chances. Picture: Grant Guy

12: FIREBURN 54.5kg

Trainer: Gary Portelli

Jockey: Brenton Avdulla Barrier: 2

Prizemoney: $237,250 Last five: 4111

Best win: 1st Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes

Dufficy: She just keeps winning and doing it well. From the rails barrier she won’t have to do too much work early and could easily dive through late and be in the finish.

Thomas: Fireburn has beaten Revolutionary Miss and She’s Extreme in successive starts which puts her right into the mix. She’s a determined filly with a brilliant burst of acceleration.

13: OJAI 54.5kg

Trainer: James Cummings

Jockey: Chad Schofield Barrier: 12

Prizemoney: $225,325 Last five: 3x543

Best win: 1st Kirkham Plate

Dufficy: Ojai won her first start and has been honest and competitive in every start since. But I have to say if she was to win it would be an upset.

Thomas: She’s one of the outsiders but is not out of this race. She’s raced consistently all season and her form is around some of the leading Slipper chances.

14: SEVEN VEILS 54.5kg

Trainer: Mark Newnham

Jockey: Josh Parr Barrier: 19

Prizemoney: $181,650 Last five: 21

Best win: 1st Group 2 Reisling Stakes

Dufficy: She took control of the Reisling Stakes showing adaptability from the front. She has run well on wet and dry but the barrier is against her.

Thomas: There was a lot to like about her Reisling Stakes win on very heavy going. Improving filly drawn the car park and will need everything to go right for her.

Seven Veils booked her spot with a win in the Reisling Stakes. Picture: Grant Guy

15: LADY LAGUNA 54.5kg

Trainer: Annabel Neasham

Jockey: Linda Meech Barrier: 13

Prizemoney: $147,200 Last five: 1123

Best performance: 3rd Group 2 Sweet Embrace Stakes

Dufficy: I loved her run first-up and although she was a touch disappointing last start on a heavy 10, I have to be forgiving, I rate her the best of the long shots.

Thomas: Lady Laguna is the forgotten filly. She romped home on a wet track in spring and her two runs in good form races have been competitive efforts.

16: SHE’S EXTREME 54.5kg

Trainer: Anthony Cummings

Jockey: Brett Prebble Barrier: 6

Prizemoney: $133,600 Last five: 421

Best win: 1st Group 3 Magic Night Stakes

Dufficy: She has a sense of timing about her. She won with authority last week, has a sense of timing about her and only has to reproduce that effort to be in the finish.

Thomas: She’s Extreme has burst into Golden Slipper contention including a brilliant effort to win the Magic Night Stakes last week. She’s the big improver.

17: SWEET RIDE 56.5kg 1st em

Trainer: Annabel Neasham

Jockey: Jean Van Overmeire Barrier: 9

Prizemoney: $186,000 Last five: 1512

Best win: 1st Black Opal Preview

Dufficy: He’s a sharp little colt who tried hard last start behind Rise Of The Masses, I just feel he lacks the class to win a Golden Slipper.

Thomas: Sweet Ride didn’t shirk his task behind Rise Of The Masses last week. Smart colt but he would need to improve significantly to be in the finish.

Speedy colt Sweet Ride is first emergency for the Goldenb Slipper. Picture: Getty Images)

18: MILLANE 56.5kg 2nd em

Trainer: Peter Moody

Jockey: …. Barrier: 1

Prizemoney: $97,200 Last five: 1

Best win: 1st Listed Festival Stakes

Dufficy: I always respect trainer Peter Moody and this colt did win nicely on debut but his lack of experience is the concern.

Thomas: Millane was very impressive on debut. Promising colt but he would need to rewrite Golden Slipper history to win.

19: SEMILLION 56.5kg 3rd em

Trainer: Michael, Wayne and John Hawkes

Jockey: …. Barrier: 18

Prizemoney: $342,500 Last five: 1x25

Best win: 1st Inglis Banner

Dufficy: Semillion has a wide draw but he does have plenty of pace. If he gets a start, he adds interest because of his early speed.

Thomas: His wide draw proved costly in the Blue Diamond as he led for home but tired late to finish fifth. The draw wasn’t kind to him again.

20: MAN IN THE MIRROR 56.5kg 4th em

Trainer: Annabel Neasham

Jockey: …. Barrier: 4

Prizemoney: $92,775 Last five: 1x52

Best performance: 2nd Group 2 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes

Dufficy: He needs a real slogging go because he is coming back from 1400m. He’s a tough colt and will be stronger than most late.

Thomas: Man In The Mirror tried hard at Flemington last week and is on the quick back-up into the Slipper. He’s more suited to the races like the ATC Sires and Champagne Stakes.

R1: MIDWAY HCP (1500m)

Ron Dufficy: This is nearly impossible. I thought Highly Desired is a good, tough on-pace competitor, he fights hard and has good second-up form. I feel the danger is Mahagoni. This is an import who is only a young horse who had a busy schedule in Europe but I didn’t mind his trials. Always Sure was fantastic second-up but I don’t know about him if we don’t get a drying track. Holy Reign had too much to do last start and could improve.

Ray Thomas: Always Sure hit the line well when fifth to the smart Military Expert over this course and distance last start. He is fitter for two runs from a spell and is over the odds at $16. Americana Magic doesn’t win often but his recent form has been solid. Reformist is an improver and Highly Desired will be in this race for a long way.

Always Sure (red/yellow) looks good value coming off a solid run last start. Picture: Getty Images

R2: DARBY MUNRO STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: I am a big fan of Mazu. He has returned with a bang with two big wins as a gelding. Great draw again and very hard to beat. The danger is Ingratiating. He has been okay in two fast races of late and he did place in a Golden Slipper on a soft track last year. His stablemate Bacchanalia was flying at the end of last preparation winning three straight and comes off a nice trial. Best of the rest might be Chartres. He was good in Group 3 company first-up, he has a big wet track win to his credit and is unbeaten second-up from a spell.

Thomas: Mazu was gelded before the start of his autumn campaign and it is giving him the chance to realise his potential. His two comeback wins have been impressive, particularly his effort in the Fireball last start. Smirnova is better than her first-up run at Moonee Valley suggests and can run a competitive race. Ingratiating is well placed back against his own age but is awkwardly drawn. Omni Man is facing a massive jump in grade but he is a speedy young sprinter with ability.

R3: QUEEN’S CUP (2400m)

Dufficy: I don’t think there is much between the top four picks. I have been taken with Luncies at his two runs back, he is crying out for 2400m, he gets is now and is better off at the weights. Zeyrek was dominant winning with favours last start and could easily go on with the job. I have to give No Compromise another chance as 2400m is more his go. Surefire could stamp himself as a very promising stayer so I am not saying he doesn’t have a good chance, too.

Thomas: Zeyrek romped home at Randwick last start and is a stayer on the rise. He is a two-time winner at 2400m overseas and ran fourth in the Group 1 The Metropolitan over the trip during spring. The rain-affected conditions suit him. Surefire created a huge impression at his Australian debut winning over 2000m at Randwick and rates as the main danger. Luncies worked to the line well to finish second behind Zeyrek last start and is better suited at this trip. No Compromise also rates highly.

R4: EPONA STAKES (1900m)

Dufficy: I’m really keen to get a push for Our Intrigue. Her first preparation for Chris Waller was very good and for her to resume at 1900m suggests she is in order. She has found the perfect race with the weight scale. Le Lude needs luck but was very good winning last start. Galaxy Belle was up in class last time but was very good and loves it soft. Monegal is a durable mare who was good again in the Canberra Cup and should back up well.

Thomas: Galaxy Belle ran on strongly when second behind Surefire last start and is well suited back to mares grade here. Le Lude won by a big margin at Randwick and could easily lead and dominate again. Monegal races well at Rosehill and enjoys soft-heavy tracks. I’m expecting a big improvement from Harmony Rose.

Our Intrigue (yellow sleeves) looks well placed at the weights for her first-up run. Picture: Getty Images

R5: RANVET STAKES (2000m)

Dufficy: Ajax was beaten at 1/40 in this race but I don’t think Verry Elleegant will. She is a champion mare who usually finds a way more often than not and all things being equal she should win again. I do think Montefilia can improve and is the main danger to the favour. Angel Of Truth too advantage of his racing style running boldly in the Chipping Norton Stakes and it is the same situation here. He was placed behind Verry Elleegant in this race last year. Emissary ran a nice race at weight-for-age when resuming.

Thomas: Verry Elleegant is hot favourite to win her 12th Group 1 race. She was typically tough in the Chipping Norton and is better suited at 2000m. Mighty mare and she just finds a way to win. Montefilia can make a race of it as she is a top-class mare particularly now, she is out to her favoured distance range. Angel Of Truth hasn’t won in a long time but should run competitively and Entente might sneak into the placings if gets control up front.

R6: ROSEHILL GUINEAS (1600m)

Dufficy: Anamoe is a big yard watch. He has been on the toe of late so hopefully he has knocked all that out of his system, 2000m suits and he is the one to beat. Converge is a smart horse and his biggest advantage is his turn of speed when he lets rip and I don’t see 2000m posing too many problems. We know Profondo is a good horse but he is so hard to approach after a disappointing start to his preparation. Forgot You is a strong three-year-old suited at the distance but I would have preferred more up front for him.

Thomas: Anamoe took a while to hit top gear in the Randwick Guineas and only just failed to run down Converge. Outstanding colt who ran a close, unlucky second in the Cox Plate at his only previous attempt at a middle distance. Deserved favourite and the one to beat. Converge was brilliant winning the Randwick Guineas and will provide formidable opposition again. Profondo has the talent to win this race if he is at his best. Raging Bull is on the Derby trial and is a strong stayer.

R7: GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500m)

Dufficy: I’ve ended up leaning to the mares and I think Forbidden Love is in such rare form owning her races from in front. Looking at this map it is going to be very similar to her two previous starts and I think she can get the job done again. I’m wary of Hungry Heart here. I like the set-up with five weeks between runs but she doesn’t want any more rain. Colette disappointed in the Chipping Norton after a nice first-up run and is too good to dismiss on one run. Mo’unga won a Rosehill Guineas on a soft 7 last year so no issues with the track but I would have liked a faster pace for him.

Thomas: Hilal has been mixing it with Anamoe and Converge at his last two starts which is the best three-year-old form going around. It stands this colt in good stead for the Ryder where he is at good value odds. Forbidden Love is absolutely flying. She thrashed Lighthouse in the Canterbury Stakes and that mare then came out and won the Coolmore Classic last week to form. Mo’unga and Private Eye will be charging home.

Hilal has performed very well against Anamoe and Converge in recent starts. Picture: Grant Guy

R8: LONGINES GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m with Coolangatta. I will trust the Maher-Eustace team have her in order. I don’t mind the barrier to tell you the truth as she can slide across with speed drawn inside and out. It gives her rider, James McDonald, plenty of options. She’s Extreme has drawn beautifully, will race closer than midfield and show her strength. Jacquinot is the mystery runner to me. He was very unlucky when speared off the track in the Blue Diamond. I can’t leave Shalatin out as I am convinced he is loaded with talent and it is Grand Final Day with a good trainer.

Thomas: Sejardan and Coolangatta have been the two constants among the juvenile division all season and I think they will fight out the finish. I’m leaning to Sejardan who handles all types of track condition, is very fit and he’s always strong late in his races. Coolangatta is a dynamic filly and if the track improves to a soft 6 or better, then it is to her advantage. Revolutionary Miss was an unlucky and close second in the Blue Diamond. She has improved with every run and will be competitive again. Best Of Bordeaux is the likely leader and he will take running down.

R9: FURPHY GALAXY (1100m)

Dufficy: This is an unbelievable race. I can make good comments about the whole field. I want to have something on Minhaaj. She has her blinkers back on, it was a total forgive run after being put out of the race with severe interference in the Oakleigh Plate when she was well fancied, and she sets up well from a middle draw off what looks to be a hectic speed. I would have tipped Paulele from a draw. He just needs to find a three-wide running line even if it is worse than midfield and he will be launching on this lot late. Isotope is a very good mare but is too short in the market. Away Game hasn’t won in a long time but she always puts in.

Thomas: I concede your point about Isotope’s odds, she is short enough, but I still think she will win. Isotope is a brilliant mare suited by the frenetic tempo of this race and she will be finishing hard. Overpass has been outstanding this campaign, he’s a very good colt and will be hard to beat. In The Congo is another top class three-year-old resuming but his trial win was good and he’s going to be very competitive. Ballistic Lover is flying in her trials and is over the odds.

R10: BIRTHDAY CARD STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on Mallory. She has been trained like a sprinter now and she really looked good last start and the Mazu form looks good coming back to fillies and mares class. It’s Me gets the chance to shape right up now. She is third-up off a long break and this is a nice race for her. Emanate is ready for 1200m and maps well. Samoot was very impressive in an easier race at her first Australian start but this trip might be a touch short for her.

Thomas: It’s Me has been improved by two runs from a spell and is in a suitable race. She has drawn ideally in barrier five and handles rain-affected tracks. Samoot looks a real talent and although she faces a sharp rise in class, it would not surprise if she wins. Mallory is ready to win and Robodira sprints well fresh.

Mallory can end the day on a high note. Picture: Grant Guy

SUGGESTED BETS

Shayne O’Cass’ top picks

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

Race 1, No.3: PELASAERT

Building up to a peak performance and beautifully placed to do so on this big track over 1200m in this line-up. Easy to like.

NEXT BEST

Race 8, No.8: MAMOUNIA

Triscay descendant in the Godolphin colours who was spelled after her Boxing Day breakthrough over 2000m. Big run first-up over 1300m and steps up to the mile here.

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.7: MENTALISM

Trained here by the Queen of Kembla, Gwenda Markwell and ridden by her trusty right-hand man Keagan Latham. Flying this prep.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,3,9

Race 6: 2,3

Race 7: 2,9,11

Race 8: 8

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Lee Magorrian has a great chance of winning the TAB Jockeys Challenge barring any race day scratchings.

QUEANBEYAN

BEST BET

Race 1, No.2: STARMOSS

Showed his real ability when he absolutely trounced his rivals to post his first career win at this same track/distance 13-days ago. Can go on with it now.

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No.4: HONOUR THE LEGEND

Placed at four of his 12 starts, this Mitchell Beer-trained son of Not A Single Doubt has found himself in the proverbial ‘winnable race’ and then some.

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.6: BIG BAZ

Been costly to follow but should reward the true believers who stick solid with the Joe Cleary-trained local on the 23rd anniversary of father Frank’s Golden Slipper win.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis