Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas believe consistent stayer No Compromise can bounce back and their Golden Rose selection should be too classy.

Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas are both keen on the Chris Waller-trained No Compromise. Picture: Grant Guy

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the 10-race Golden Rose meeting at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 8, No.1: ANAMOE

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.6: NO COMPROMISE

BEST VALUE

Race 2, No.2: YULONG BASE

RAY’S BEST

Race 7, No.2: ENTRIVIERE

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.6: NO COMPROMISE

VALUE BET

Race 2, No.11: WITHOUT SHAME

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R1: Precise Air Hcp (1900m)

Ron Dufficy: This is a tricky start to the day. I’m finding it hard to split the Chris Waller quartet. Yiyi is well weighted, he is racing consistently and just got too far back in a moderately run race last start. he can improve again. Crystal Pegasus is the danger. He was very good winning two starts back then the tempo was against him last start. He is worth another chance. Achiever is ready to improve third-up at this distance. His form at the end of last preparation would win this race. Our Intrigue’s last two starts at Kembla Grange have been great and the stable seems to have found the key to her. She has never won on a good track which is a slight concern.

Ray Thomas: I’ve also landed on Yiyi for the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. He’s been up a while but is holding his form, drops 3kg and this looks the right race for him. Bazooka is another who has been racing well over an extended period and he is coming off a solid effort at Kembla where he lost his position coming to the turn before he finished strongly to just miss a place. Our Intrigue and Crystal Pegasus also rate highly in a competitive race.

TAB MARKETS: Crystal Pegasus $6-$4.80, Yiyi $4.60-$4

R2: TAB Highway (1500m)

Dufficy:Yulong Base is the value runner of the day. I like him stepping up in distance and his last win was the Rosehill 1400m in a class 2 Highway. He was slow out the other day but was very good late and I think this is a target race for him. Chase My Crown is the danger. He hasn’t been far off in two runs back and had no luck at Newcastle last start. He strips fitter and had strong formlines last preparation. Kermatin hit the line strongly at Moruya and has more upside than most. So Say You is a consistent Highway performer and just needs luck from his wide draw.

Thomas: I don’t mind Without Shame at each way odds. He failed at Randwick in a 1100m Highway two starts back when he was slow away, got well back in the field and didn’t have a lot of galloping room in the run home. He then endured a wide run but his fast finishing fourth at Dubbo over 1300m was a good pointer for this race. He drops 3kg, goes up in trip which he should enjoy getting out to 1500m. So Say You is very genuine but the wide draw is a concern. The Fossil and Kermatin have chances at odds.

TAB MARKETS: Yulong Base $16-$10, Chase My Crown $16-$9

Yulong Base can land another TAB Highway win. Picture: Grant Guy

R3: Midway Handicap (1300m)

Dufficy: I’m going with Calgary Queen. I thought he was terrific winning first-up at Kensington then was on the worst part of the track the other day. James McDonald back on her is a positive and she makes her own luck on top of the speed. Cuban Royale is well placed here and has been going well in much tougher races. He only has to hold his form to run well. Catapult had no luck whatsoever in the lead-up behind Dalaalaat and I think he can run home late. Dame Kiri pulled a run out the other day and her best would win this at any old odds.

Dufficy:Barossa Rosa did have every chance when resuming at Kembla but I thought her effort to finish third was a solid return. She’s an emerging mare, improved by the run and will be in the finish. I agree that Calgary Queen is right in this race and is the one to beat. Trainer Gary Portelli has two good chances with Ruby Tuesday, who races on speed, and Exceltic should be charging home from back in the field.

TAB MARKETS: Cuban Royale $11-$7-$5 ($540 @ $10, $300 @ $10 TWICE), Catapult $26-$19

R4: Colin Stephen Quality (2400m)

Dufficy:No Compromise is going great. He was unlucky in the Newcastle Cup and is beautifully weighted here. The only concern is he needs the jar out of the track. I’m going with him from Fun Fact who is very fit on the back-up and has the blinkers back on. Entente was very good last week even though he was on the best part of the track. He has upside although he is some query at 2400m. Taikomochi went out hard at Newcastle and stuck on well. He strips fitter now.

Thomas: It does look the right race for No Compromise. He comes off that very good run at Newcastle and he does race well on this track. Entente is fitter for two runs from a spell and he sets up well here on the quick back-up. Criminal Code had excuses at Newcastle and can’t be overlooked. Sound Of Cannons was just beaten by No Compromise over this course and trip two months ago and has had only one run since over 2000m at Kembla. He is better suited at this distance and is way over the odds.

TAB MARKETS: Fun Fact $12-$13-$8.50-$9, No Compromise $2.90-$2.80 ($2,000 @ $2.80)

Godolphin sprinter Paulele can bounce back in the Heritage Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

R5: Heritage Stakes (1100m)

Dufficy: Terrific race. I think with an ounce of luck Paulele can get them. He has a tricky draw but we all saw what he did first-up in The Rosebud. He was a little flat on the softer track last start but he has had a freshen since and I think he can put his Everest cards on the table. I would have tipped King Of Sparta with a better draw. This is a lovely set-up for him here on a good track with all the speed up front but the barrier is a concern. Home Affairs is a big spruik horse. It is unusual for the Waller stable to let a horse win three trials so the colt is wound up for this. Sword Of State pays the penalty at the weights for being a Group 1 winner but he was an outstanding New Zealand two-year-old and I can’t rule him out.

Thomas: Same top four and in order with Paulele the one to beat. The key is the firmer track as he was brilliant on top of the ground winning first-up on a firm track, unleashing a tremendous burst of acceleration. King Of Sparta is racing in top form, he should almost be unbeaten this campaign. If he can get some cover and relax early, he will be hard to hold out. Home Affairs is flying at the trials and Sword Of State is a quality colt but the weights don’t favour him.

TAB MARKETS: Sword Of State $11-$10 ($500 e/w @ $10/$2.80, $500 @ $10), Home Affairs $6-$3.40-$3.60 ($400 @ $5.50, $1,000 @ $5, $500 @ $4.80, $300 @ $4.40, $300 @ $3.90, $600 @ $3.70, $1,000 @ $3.50), Paulele $2.40-$2.90 ($1,500 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.50)

R6: Shannon Stakes (1500m)

Dufficy: I know he hasn’t won in a long time, Ray, but this is a great race for Imaging. He has been at Group 1 level at his last six starts but finds himself in a winnable race. From barrier one and with James McDonald in the saddle I will go his way. Archedemus was at big odds but that has been shaved now and he does have a great third-up record at this distance. Love Tap went like a rocket with the blinkers on last start. He has a big weight drop, rides the speed and should be in the finish. Best Of Days was scratched last week for this with the dry track in mind and has to be considered.

Thomas:Love Tap shouldered 59kg and ran his rival ragged last start. It was a very impressive effort from this striking grey who now has five wins from just eight starts. Love Tap drops 6kg and is the one to catch again. Imaging is the danger. As you pointed out, this is the easiest race he has contested for a long time. Reloaded has been improved by two Brisbane runs and he does drop considerably in weight. Archedemus does look well placed here.

TAB MARKETS: Imaging $4.40-$4.60-$4.20 ($500 @ $4.60), Lovetap $3.50-$3.10 ($515 @ $3.40, $500 @ $3.10)

Imaging (left) can break through for an overdue win. picture: Grant Guy

R7: Golden Pendant (1400m)

Dufficy: I’ve changed my mind four or five times and ended up with Vangelic. She has only won one race but has competed at the top level all the way through her career. I like the draw with her and she is more than capable. The dangers include Nimalee. I wish she had drawn a barrier but she was very good first-up over an unsuitable distance and is a big chance. Entriviere is outstanding and all quality but 1400m from a wide draw is a concern although she is a trier and knows how to win. Forbidden Love sets up well third-up and should be around the mark.

Thomas:Entriviere was so dominant in the Sheraco, I can’t tip against her. She’s a top-class mare who gives the impression she will be even better suited at 1400m. Awkwardly drawn but only needs to find cover early and I expect her to prove too strong in the sprint home. Marboosha was solid first-up in the Sheraco finishing third and she doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Nimalee comes out of the Theo Marks where she ran a blinder and quality mare Forbidden Love has been improved by two runs from a spell.

TAB MARKETS: Entriviere $2.40-$2.25-$2.30 ($2,000 @ $2.40, $500 @ $2.30 TWICE, $500 @ $2.25), Nimalee $11-$8 ($400 @ $8.50)

R8: Golden Rose (1400m)

Dufficy: With an ounce of luck Anamoe wins. He’s a start colt and has improvement to come from his first-up win. If he can find a back to follow, he can peel off them and be too good. Artorius will probably have to go right back to get in from the draw but he has a 1400m run under his belt and I can’t get his very good Golden Slipper run out of my mind. The big value runner is Captivant. From barrier 1, the timing looks perfect and I can’t let him go at $34. Remarque did start favourite in the lead-up race and just has to execute a little bit better but he has the right barrier this time.

Thomas:Anamoe is a brilliant colt coming off his impressive comeback win two weeks ago. He was lethal when he got out to 1400m for the Sires earlier this year and he is clearly the one to beat. The only negative is his awkward barrier. I’ve been with Remarque every start so far and he has been costly but from his favourable barrier, he will get the right run. He’s got the talent and this is his chance. Artorius will be charging home form back in the field and the underrated Tiger Of Malay will be in this race for a long way.

TAB MARKETS: Anamoe $1.90-$1.95-$2 ($5,000 @ $2, $2,000 @ $2, $1,069 @ $2, $1,000 @ $2 MULTIPLE TIMES, $600 @ $2, $500 @ $2 MULTIPLE TIMES, $900 @ $1.95, $1,050 @ $1.90, $500 @ $1.90, $450 @ $1.90), Remarque $10-$8 ($500 @ $9.50, $500 @ $9, $500 @ $8.50), Royalzel $51-$101-$41-$31 ($3,500 @ $81), Jamaea $15 unchanged ($500 @ $15 TWICE, $300 @ $15)

Boom colt Anamoe can land a second Group 1 win in the Golden Rose. Picture: Getty Images

R9: Gloaming Stakes (1800m)

Dufficy: Some real improvers in this race that are hard to line up. The barrier has swayed me to Profondo. I know he is still raw but he is a boom colt. If he can settle in the first half of this race, he will be hard to beat. Arnaqueur hit the line strongly last start and he should run the 1800m right out. Alegron was five weeks between runs last start and is fitter now. French Emperor was placed behind Profondo and went on to win last start. He is still doing things wrong in his races but is very talented.

Thomas:Profondo is a high-profile colt who was impressive on debut. He is getting to 1800m very quickly but on breeding and his racing pattern, this won’t be an issue. I’m going with his potential to overcome his inexperience. French Emperor followed his debut third to Profondo with a dominant maiden win at Goulburn and he also looks to have staying promise. This is a deep race with Head Of State among the main chances and All Machiavellian capable of running well at huge odds.

TAB MARKETS: Profondo $4.60-$4.20-$4.40 ($300 @ $4.60), French Emperor $11-$8.50 ($500 e/w @ $11/$3.20), Money From The Sky $15-$7.50-$8-$10-$11 ($800 @ $12)

R10: Elite Sand & Soil Hcp (1400m)

Dufficy: A hard race to finish the day. I liked Grand Rumore’s first-up run where she did a terrific job to finish fifth. She is an imported mare having her second Australian preparation and with that good draw, only 52kg on her back, I want to be on her at the odds. Ellsberg has had two trials, he is a talented horse and should get across from that wide draw with his gate speed. Grace and Harmony’s trial was an eye-catcher even though they didn’t run time. She is resuming from a Queensland winter campaign and could charge over the top of these late. Kiku is an up-and-coming mare with a good record. She has had three trials and should be ready after wintering in Queensland without a run.

Thomas:Ellsberg does have a bit of work to do early but he’s a talented racehorse, unbeaten first-up and has had two barrier trials to ready him for his return. Kiku is a progressive mare resuming but she looks trained up for this race. I’m wary of both All Hallows’ Eve and Grace And Harmony, and expect both to be hitting the line strongly.

TAB MARKETS: Ventura Ocean $15-$12-$11 ($300 @ $15, $500 e/w @ $15/$4.20, $250 e/w @ $15/$4.20), Bullfinch $26-$13-$11, Grande Rumore $15-$11-$12

SANDOWN

R7: Underwood Stakes (1800m)

Dufficy: A disappointing, small field as Zaaki has scared them off. He should continue on his winning way and then it is full steam ahead to the Cox Plate. Probabeel might have been a little flat second-up but she will improve. Superstorm is third-up off a win and The Chosen One will keep grinding away.

Thomas: Impossible to tip against Zaaki. He’s at unbackable odds and should score his fifth win in succession with relative ease. His first-up win in the Tramway Stakes was so impressive and he just wins. I’ve got the same finishing order with Probabeel next best, ahead of Superstorm and The Chosen One.

TAB MARKETS: Zaaki $1.33-$1.28 ($5,000 @ $1.28, $1,500 @ $1.28, $1,000 @ $1.28, $600 @ $1.28)

SATURDAY EXTRA

BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS

GOULBURN

BEST BET

Race 4, No.7: I AM NEFERTITI

Cleverly-named and exceptionally well-bred American Pharoah filly whose dam is a sister to Brazen Beau. In a top stable and trials like a horse of the future.

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No.7: PRETTY ELSA

Another absolute blueblood to lure the breeding buffs. Not lacking in talent either, this Chris Waller-trained mare won her second start last prep and has trialled up well for the return.

VALUE BET

Race 7, No.5: COTEHELE

Could cap off a very big day here and in Sydney for trainer John O’Shea. This stylish Tavistock colt resumes in a Bm64 having last raced at Group 1 level and was only four-lengths off the winner that day.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 7

Race 5: 1,2,3

Race 6: 7

Race 7: 5,9

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Alysha Collett only has the four rides - three are for John O’Shea - and all of them might very well win giving her a real shot at the TAB Jockeys Challenge.

GUNNEDAH

BEST BET

Race 1, No.14: UNZAGA

Paul Messara-trained son of his own former crack colt Scissor Kick. This gelding has been very good indeed in his first two runs and is liable to peak here in the perfect race.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.2: ARACANE ENERGY

Neil Werrett-owned Rubick mare from the Cody Morgan yard. Placed at two of her only four outings including a nose second at home at Tamworth four weeks back.

VALUE BET

Race 6, No.8: LOVE SICK

Came with a mighty finish to win at Moree on July 31 then flew home again at her next start 14-days ago to get closest to the winner at Armidale. Should be steaming home again this time.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis