Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas are both keen on the Mark Newnham-trained Expat to continue her outstanding Rosehill form.

Expat looks hard to beat in Race 4 at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday. Picture: Grant Guy

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances at a bumper Hobartville Stakes-Silver Slipper meeting at Rosehill Gardens and the Lightning Stakes at Flemington on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST:

Race 4, No3: EXPAT

BEST VALUE

Race 7, No1: ENTENTE

RAY’S BEST

Race 8, No.1: ANAMOE

NEXT BEST

Race 10, No.3: DAJRAAN

VALUE BET

RACE 9, No.7: DREAM CIRCLE

RACE 1: TAB HIGHWAY (1400m)

Ron Dufficy: This looks as tough as any Highway. I feel Commando Hunt, despite the wide draw and big weight, is silly odds around $17. It was a total forgive run when he was never really balanced first-up. The 1400m suits him much better and I’m happy to lean his way. The lightly-raced Steplee looks a gelding with upside. He had too much to do at Newcastle last start but with plenty of speed up front he might get last look at them. Markievicz has been very good the way she has savaged the line her last three starts and she is in great winning form. Foodie King is a big watch at huge odds. He has had no official trial but is in astute hands and did win first-up last preparation.

Ray Thomas: I’ve also gone wide with Royal Exit. He didn’t have a lot of room at the top of the straight last start and did well to work into third behind Markievicz in a Highway. He meets that mare 2kg better at the weights here. Although drawn off the track, expect Hugh Bowman to ride Royal Exit quietly early and he will be finishing strongly. Haven is a genuine mare drawn to get the right run. Danzadel is back in form winning well at Nowra last start, and Markievicz is in great touch and rates highly again.

RACE 2: SCHWEPPES HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: I keep sliding back to the track and distance form and that has to be with Mr Mosaic. His trainers Gerald Ryan and Sterling Alexiou have worked him out, keeping him nice and fresh, and this horse does have an affinity at the Rosehill 1100m which favours on-pace horses. He has had five weeks between runs, has barrier one, Reece Jones has the claim and I am leaning his way. Rule Of Law is in rare form as a gelding this preparation. It is very hard to win five straight but that is what he is racing for here. He has that tremendous will-to-win. Shadow Crush has really lifted the bar with two very impressive Randwick wins but whether this is the track and distance for his racing style is another question. Emanate hasn’t won in a year but she wasn’t bad and usually lifts second-up from a spell.

Thomas: There is little between Mr Mosaic and Rule Of Law. Both are in top form but Mr Mosaic does get the benefit of a 2kg claim for apprentice Reece Jones and that means he has a 3.5kg weight pull over Rule Of Law and that could prove decisive. Rule Of Law is in a rich vein of form and he will be stalking Mr Mosaic throughout the race. Gravina was consistent without winning when last in work and Shadow Crush is another at the top of his game.

Mr Mosaic can maintain his affinity with the Rosehill track and land another win. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3: MIDWAY HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: I’ve never been so confident about a Midway with Military Expert and French Emperor when they both ran last start and they let me down terribly. I want to give them another chance. Military Expert gets more control at 1500m with less pressure up front. French Emperor can improve with a quieter ride. I’m happy to give them both another chance as they have more upside than most of this field. McCormack’s two Midway runs have been solid of late and he maps well. Casino Mondial found it too short for him at 1200m when resuming but out to 1500m this is a race he could do something with the claim and at big odds.

Thomas: I see it the same way, Ronnie. I’m also giving Military Expert another chance. He is held in high regard by trainer Annabel Neasham and is better than his first-up run suggests. Fitter now and drawn to the right run. French Emperor over-raced last start but he will be ridden more conservatively early so expect him to be hitting the line hard. The Guru is always over the odds but is capable of running a competitive race. Free State is fitter now and set to improve.

RACE 4: MILLIE FOX STAKES (1300m)

Dufficy: I’m keen on Expat. She has had a shorter break than most, only 52 days, is well set-up by Mark Newnham with a nice trial. She has the blinkers back on, takes ownership of the race and will be hard to beat. Krone is a terrific mare and was great behind Snapdancer on the dry track last time. She is impossible to dismiss. Le Lude trialled well, probably finds Expat’s back and has a good first-up record. Belluci Babe has to run the 1300m out but is coming out of a couple of strong form races where she was competitive.

Thomas: I’ve also got Expat on top but the only slight concern is her lack of dry track form so if the forecast of rain is correct, then it will be a significant boost to her chances. But for all the reasons you mentioned, she does look hard to beat. Belluci Babe is on the back-up after a solid fourth to Snapdancer last week and she does race well on this track. Nicci’s Fling is resuming but is usually competitive fresh and she never runs a bad race here. Rocha Clock and Krone are class mares who will be charging home.

Mazu can beat his older rivals from a good draw. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 5: NED WHISKY HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: I’m a fan of Mazu. He has been gelding before the start of this preparation. He has always shown talent. This isn’t easy, a three-year-old giving the older horses weight, but over the 1100m from an acceptable draw, I think he will be hard to beat. Able Willie is a very nice horse, promising with a bright future but is he still sharp enough for 1100m? That is the question I have about him. Zapateo is an interesting filly, two trials, looks sharp and has a good weight pull off some of her rivals here. Certainly, she is a real market watch here. Likewise, Minsk Moment. He came a long way in a short time looking very progressive last preparation and like most of these I’m keen to look at him in the yard before the race.

Thomas: Able Willie was unlucky not to run down the speedy Sky Command when resuming at Canterbury. He’s a promising three-year-old fitter for that luckless first-up defeat and with genuine speed in this race, he gets the chance to finish over the top of his rivals. Nasturtium faces his biggest test but all you can do is win and he has been impressive in each of his three wins. Mazu is very talented and should be in the finish. Fox Fighter did some good things when last in work, he has the ability to run fast times and is over the odds.

RACE 6: SILVER SLIPPER STAKES (1100m)

Dufficy: It’s no secret I’m a big fan of Shalatin. I know there is a lot against him - the 1100m, wide draw at Rosehill is not really a good set-up – but I don’t want to miss him along the way. I expect him to come with a boom finish here and be right in the market for the Golden Slipper. The fillies are the ones to beat. Queen Of The Ball from barrier one should go close. I know she had the bias in her favour last start but she did run the time and has always promised more this preparation. Cythera was excellent scoring on debut in the Lonhro Plate considering she had only one trial prior to that race so there has to be more upside with her. Ebhaar wasn’t herself first-up but has been back to the trials with a win and probably gets another chance.

Thomas: Queen Of The Ball was very impressive winning the Widden Stakes first-up, running fast overall time and recording a brilliant closing 600m sectional. She’s drawn the rails and will be camped on the speed. Talented filly and the one to catch. Shalatin trialled nicely on Monday, he’s a very promising colt and will be finishing strongly late. Cythera showed class to win on debut and can only improve. Best Of Bordeaux is a promising colt who ran them ragged on debut in the Canonbury Stakes.

Queen Of The Ball can add Silver Slipper to her resume. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 7: PARRAMATTA CUP (1900m)

Dufficy: I’m with Entente. He’s had three trials to prepare for this, he usually races well fresh and Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have him wound up for this race. I like the map, there is no real pressure, he can take control of the race and prove hard to run down. Mightybeel has been held back for these early autumn races, he’s very genuine so hard to knock him. No Compromise is ready for the 1900m after two good runs since resuming. He hasn’t won at less than 2000m but this distance is okay for him third-up with some freshness still in his legs. Mustajeer sets up well here with 42 days and a trial since his first-up run. He has been set for this race a few times and run well. He is the dark horse.

Thomas: Another open race. I don’t mind Toomuchtobear down in the weights. He scored a tough win at Randwick over 2000m three weeks ago and the form has been franked with the minor placegetters, Desert Icon and Kaapfever, winning their next starts. Toomuchtobear can settle closer from his inside draw and lightweight and will go close. No Compromise is going really well and this is his chance now he is out to a middle distance. Entente is first-up at 1900m with a big weight but against that he is a top-class stayer. I’ve also got Mustajeer in my numbers.

RACE 8: HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400m)

Dufficy: I’ve got to be with Anamoe. He had excuses first-up with the bias against him and the Expressway Stakes has turned into a very strong race. No issues with him at all although he just needs a cart into the race. Converge did more than enough first-up ridden upside down with 60kg in the Eskimo Prince Stakes. I’m keen to see what he can do ridden a little quieter. Silent Impact could get all the favours up front with no pressure. If he gets a couple of soft sectionals, it will take a good run to run him down. Maurice’s Medad was excellent first-up and he does have a good draw to put himself into the race.

Thomas: Anamoe was disadvantaged by the track bias in the Expressway Stakes but still ran really well to finish a close third. The form out of that race has held up, Anamoe goes well second-up, the step up to 1400m suits and with even luck in running, he should win. Converge also ran very well in defeat when resuming and is likely to be coming from back in the field making his finishing run with Anamoe. It will set up an exciting finish. Silent Impact has had two runs from a spell, is ready for 1400m and will be in the right position up on speed. Hilal did enough first-up to indicate he can be competitive here at good odds.

Star colt Anamoe can bounce back from his Expressway defeat and claim the Hobartville Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 9: CHANDON HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: Impossible race. I’m guessing with Giannis. He reared at the start first-up so it was a total forgive run. He gets out to 1400m here, he won the Dulcify Quality last preparation so he might be the forgotten horse here. There seems to be plenty of pace in this race and I’m looking for those coming from off the speed so Dream Circle is another one. He has been pretty good at his last couple and if we get a drop of rain, which is forecast, it would help his chances. Invinciano down in the weights will keep chipping away making it hard to run her down. Matowatakpe indicated last week he is back on track.

Thomas: Dream Circle doesn’t win often but rarely runs a bad race, either. He’s finally drawn a good barrier, should get the right run and appeals as a value runner in a very open race. New Arrangement is resuming but he did win first-up last preparation, he’s also drawn a soft barrier and is each way odds. Giannis is another with the talent to run competitively. Invinciano is a definite lightweight chance provided the track remains firm.

RACE 10: XXXX HANDICAP (1400m)

Dufficy: I like the Kiwi, Sindacato. He was a certainty beaten at his last run at Ellerslie. There have been five winners come out of that race already, he’s had a soft trial to prepare for this and I feel he will be very hard to beat. The danger is War Eternal. I can’t believe he is double figure odds as he was not suited by the slowly run Eskimo Prince Stakes first-up but did more than enough. He showed promise when last in work. Dajraan is an interesting well-bred import who was backed as if unbeatable winning at his Australian debut at Warwick Farm. But I must say he beat nothing that day, he might be a good horse but is well found in the market. Tamerlane was left flat-footed going back to 1200m last start and can improve.

Thomas: Dajraan ran up to his brilliant trial form with a very impressive win at the Warwick Farm midweeks. He has impressive acceleration and a touch of class. Better suited at 1400m and he can win again. I’ve got Sindacato in my numbers for the reasons you mentioned. I’m wary of Tamerlane, I’ve been on him all preparation but have jumped off today. War Eternal is the knockout chance.

Nature Strip is shooting for back-to-back wins in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

FLEMINGTON

RACE 7: BLACK CAVIAR LIGHTNING STAKES (1000m)

Dufficy: A hard race to be confident about. Nature Strip is just so genuine down the straight I have to lean his way. Masked Crusader would be hard to hold out if the pressure was on from the start. Eduardo has a good head-to-head record with Nature Strip. Home Affairs was brilliant winning the Coolmore Stud Stakes down the straight in the spring.

Thomas: There is little between Eduardo and Nature Strip – they are super sprinters; both are brilliant first-up and excel at 1000m. Eduardo edged out Nature Strip in two thrilling duels over 1000m and 1100m last year but Nature Strip does have the superb straight track record. All that has swayed me to Eduardo at the odds. Home Affairs is an exciting colt and his win in the Coolmore Stud Stakes was outstanding. Masked Crusader will be giving the leaders a start but he is capable of reeling off incredible closing sectionals.

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS

GOSFORD

BEST BET

Race 5, No.12: HIDDEN SMILE

Anthony Cummings trained daughter of his own former crack filly, Danehill Smile. Come back well; trial was good. Don’t sell her short.

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No.10: MADIBA’S QUEEN

Another lightly-raced and promising classic filly from the Anthony Cummings camp. Will stay all day this one; just needs to get around Gosford.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.4: ADAMAS PRINCE

Edward Cummings this time via this War gelding who was $16 into $13 first-up here and ran accordingly - went very close in fact.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,12

Race 6: 1,6,10,12

Race 7: 1,2,5,8

Race 8: 4

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Blake Spriggs will don the Anthony Cummings colours twice at Gosford to ride our abovementioned best bets.

WAGGA

BEST BET

Race 3, No.6: OUR BAEZ

Doubt there is a horse racing at Wagga that has a bigger finish than this mare. Small field suits, just wants a fast pace now which seems likely.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No.11: DIAMOND STAR

Keith Dryden/Laurel Oak filly with a handy little C.V in development. Won here on Australia Day then was an honourable third next time at Goulburn.

VALUE BET

Race 1, No.1: BIG TIME CHARLIE

The always astute Luke Pepper saddles up this first starter who wasn’t let go in his trials behind the very handy Kelvedon Road 15-days ago.

ORANGE

BEST BET

Race 3, No.1: SOLOIST

Claire Lever trained son of Your Song who looks to have a mortgage on the race form-wise. Doesn’t make him a moral but he should be winning.

NEXT BEST

Race 1, No.3: COUTURE

Has never been closer to a first win and finds herself in the perfect race here.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.2: DUBBO WANDERER

Take out the Wellington Boot run and this horse has been very good indeed at the other three.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis