Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ron Dufficy was taken by the debut performance of Shalatin and thinks he can win the Golden Gift while Ray Thomas likes Dream Runner to claim the Country Classic.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the big race chances at Rosehill Gardens and Flemington on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 7, No.5: SHALATIN
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.6: SIZZLING CAT
Race 4, No.4: SELEQUE
RAY’S BEST
BEST BET
Race 5, No.2: DREAM RUNNER
NEXT BEST
Race 10, No.7: BLESK
VALUE BET
Race 4, No.8: PARACHUTER
RACE 1: XXXX HANDICAP (2400M)
Ron Dufficy: I think this is a very tough race. I’m going to give Herman Hesse another chance. He has had a month between runs since going out hard and being attacked mid-race, and I think he can improve. Fortified worked home well at Canterbury last start, he gets in lighter and is very fit. Suppression is the unknown here as he is just out of a class 1 company in Victoria but a typical Chris Waller improver who they thought enough of to run in the SA Derby last preparation. Olympic Gaze is a good longshot.
Ray Thomas: I’ve gone with Suppression. He looks promising and comes off that very easy win at Mornington. Promising young stayer set to continue his rise through the grades. Herman Hesse is the proven stayer but he has to concede Suppression 6.5kg. Arabolini is a genuine stayer down in the weights and gets the soft track conditions he prefers. He can run a race at odds. Merlinite ran well at Randwick on Tuesday, she’s very fit and could sneak into the minor money.
RACE 2: VALE CHRIS KEARNS HCP (1500M)
Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on Sizzling Cat. He’s a nice horse who caught the eye charging home first-up, he’s had a lovely recent trial, he was very good in a Highway at the end of his last preparation and with the claim he stands out to me. Mikado is a nice horse who likes his runs spaced. He did a bit of work in a Highway last start and he stuck on well. Statesville did well to win first-up win in what looks to be a strong enough race at Coonamble over 1600m. Schiller’s Myst is just out of a benchmark 58 but I liked the way she savaged the line to win last start.
Thomas: So Say You has been beaten as favourite in her last two Highways, running on from well back on the turn. I’ve been with her in recent starts and I’ve got to stay with her. Schiller’s Myst is lightly raced but showing promise and comes off a dominant win at Scone last start, recording impressive closing sectionals. Sizzling Cat did run a blinder at Wagga Wagga first-up and rates among the main chances. Andorra La Vella is in winning form and although this is as far as he wants, he will be in front for a long way.
RACE 3: MATES IN CONSTRUCTION HCP (1800M)
Dufficy: Mayfair Spirit has found his form. He had to come back to 1600m last start was against him when he was out-sprinted but he stuck on well. I’m happy to go with him. Jazzland likes to roll along on pace and he’s ready third-up. He’s the one to beat. Shibli was in winning form prior to his defeat as favourite last start but back on his home track and with a bit of give in the ground he should run well. Prompt Prodigy is a longshot who can improve. He’s a better horse than what we have seen this preparation but he’s dropping in grade and gets the claim.
Thomas: I’m with Jazzland. He’s shaped well in both starts this spring and is out to his preferred distance range here. He should get an uncontested lead and will prove very tough to run down. Shibli is worth another chance particularly now he is out to 1800m. Don’t be surprised if lightweight Viren runs a race at odds. He was good first-up, will be improved by the run and gets his preferred soft track. Mayfair Spirit is better suited over this distance.
RACE 4: PETALUMA HCP (1100M)
Dufficy: I’m very keen on Seleque. She’s had a short spell, an easy trial where she looked the part, is excellent fresh and I think she has most bases covered and will be hard to beat. Amiche is the query. She had two Queensland trials a month ago, in the new stable now and any rain is a bonus. Undeniable is in fine form and back to 1100m poses no problems. Russbuss has trialled well either side of her first-up run and could be the improver finding the front here.
Thomas: I didn’t mind Parachuter at the odds. She’s a consistent mare who races on speed and makes her own luck. After the claim, she gets in with only 51.5kg and will take running down. Seleque always sprints well fresh and is the one to beat. Undeniable is racing very well and despite creeping up in the weights she will be competitive again. I’ve also got Amiche in my numbers and will be watching market moves.
RACE 5: COUNTRY CLASSIC (2000M)
Dufficy: Dream Runner looks well placed. He has been around the mark all preparation, good city form around the right horses, nice draw, maps well and hard to beat. Kitzbuhel is a likeable horse with a great racing style. He appeals third-up at 1800m and will be hard to get past. Five Kingdom ran well in the Ruby Tuesday race at Randwick last start and he just needs to settle from the wide draw. I like the way Kermatin hits the line, she is a nice mare and will be running on strongly.
Thomas: This does look the right race for Dream Runner. He’s been racing very well in stronger grade and is superbly placed here. Drawn the rails, will get the run of the race and this looks his race. Kitzbuhel is lightly raced but shows staying ability with his tough, on-pace racing pattern. Defy is at big odds but he will be running on strongly and Invincible Dash is another value runner capable of running a competitive race.
RACE 6: MIDWAY HCP (1300M)
Dufficy: Saquon has really caught the eye at his last two starts when ridden quietly from wide draws. He can race a little closer from a better draw here and is the one to beat. Travest was inconclusive in a sluggish recent trial but he is talented and could charge over the top of these late. Bowery Breeze was good in a sprint home last start which wasn’t run to suit her. This is a much more suitable race. Pandora Blue is a sharp mare who will give plenty of cheek up front.
Thomas: I’ve also gone with Saquon mainly for the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. His best form is on rain-affected going and getting out to 1300m suits. Pandora Blue was too fast and too good for her rivals at Randwick and she will give Saquon something to chase. Tympanist should have won at Gosford first-up, gets into this race with a lightweight and the soft track conditions suit him. Travest will be storming home.
RACE 7: GOLDEN GIFT (1100M)
Dufficy: I think Shalatin could well be a very, very good horse, dare I say it a Golden Slipper horse, Ray. Shalatin’s effort on debut was absolutely outstanding from a horse that didn’t look at all wound up. I can see him charging over the top of them here. Sejardan is the danger. He has had a freshen up since his Breeders Plate win and he looked good when having a gallop between races at Canterbury last week. Queen Of The Ball lacked experience at her debut and didn’t quite know how to flatten out so I like the great change with winkers. Nobel is a lovely horse and did enough on debut in Melbourne and back to Sydney, he sets up well.
Thomas: Sejardan showed admirable race sense to weave through the field and accelerate brilliantly to win the Breeders Plate on debut last month. Promising colt who will get back early but he will be finishing fast here. I’ve got Sejardan on top from Shalatin who did impress on debut. He rocketed to the line to just miss a place and is also suited going out to 1100m. I’ve got Queen Of The Ball racing on the speed and expect her to be right in the mix. Ojai did well to run down Queen Of The Ball at Randwick so she must stay under notice here.
RACE 8: HOT DANISH STAKES (1400M)
Dufficy: I’m struggling with this race because there is no tempo although Fashchanel might go forward early. I’m throwing Madam Rouge on top. She was held up and ran a very good race last start, peaking now and a quality mare who should be right in this race. I’m sticking with The Invitation form and Rocha Clock is the danger. She usually peaks third and fourth up so looks set up nicely here. Tricky Gal wasn’t helped by barrier one last start when never balanced but is a winning chance here. Nudge is much better than what we saw last start when nothing fell into place at all and will be a big improver.
Thomas: Rocha Clock beat all but the outstanding Icebath in The Invitation. The form from that race has been franked with Icebath running the closest of seconds in the Group 1 Cantala Stakes at Flemington on Derby Day. Rocha Clock excels third-up from a spell and is ready to win. Madam Rouge is a class mare who didn’t have much luck last start, as you pointed out Ronnie. On her best form, she is right in this race. Tricky Gal is an underrated mare with a very good record on soft tracks. She deserves to win a good race and will be hard to beat. Electric Girl ran well in a strong form race at Randwick won by Quantico but she would want an improving track.
RACE 9: BISLEY WORKWEAR HCP (1200M)
Dufficy: Flat Heaven is a tricky horse. After doing a few things wrong last week he doesn’t have to improve much, just execute it properly and will be hard to beat. Kinloch was good first-up then got too far back last start after a slow start so expect a very good showing. Blaze A Trail has looked the part in two recent trial wins and is a nice horse but might want further than 1200m. Calgary Queen should be forgiven for her last start failure after being wide with no cover and dropping out late. From barrier one here she should run well.
Thomas: Fox Fighter is an underrated three-year-old who has maintained consistent form over an extended campaign. He is on the quick back-up after a luckless third at Rosehill last week behind On The Lead in similar grade. Drawn awkwardly but still rates highly. Blaze A Trail is resuming but trialled very impressively and should go close. Flat Heaven ran well to beat all but On The Lead last week and will go close. Kinloch is better for recent racing and is the big improver.
RACE 10: CHANDON GARDEN SPRITZ HCP (1400M)
Dufficy: Zoushack scored well when he got all the favours two starts back then had to work under a big weight last week and he stuck on very well. The rain won’t hurt him and will be hard to beat. Bergen ran an enormous race out of his grade last start and if he can reproduce that will be hard to beat. Blesk has returned to racing in top form, winning an easier race last start and should run well again. Longshot War Eternal looked a progressive type last campaign and resumed in the Brian Crowley Stakes where he lost both back shoes so I want to give him another chance. Suave hasn’t done much wrong in his three runs back this campaign.
Thomas: Blesk is an emerging horse and I like the way he attacks the line. He has a powerful finishing surge as he demonstrated again winning at Kensington last start. This is a stronger race but he is up to the challenge. Suave was beaten by a very good mare at Randwick and is suited here. Zoushack is racing in top form and both of Bergen’s runs this campaign indicate he is close to winning form again.
FLEMINGTON
RACE 6: DARLEY SPRINT CLASSIC (1200M)
Dufficy: Nature Strip hasn’t got the best record when he is served up such short odds but how can you tip against him? The TAB Everest form has already stacked up as the best form again and he only has to hold that form to put away this field. The three-year-old Ranch Hand was okay in a fast Coolmore Stud Stakes on Derby Day and looks second pick while Splintex is fit and well. September Run would appreciate a softer track.
Thomas: Nature Strip does race very well down the straight course and he is going better than ever this spring. His win in The Everest was excellent and he should simply be too good for this field. Bella Nipotina has had a good spring carnival but taking on Nature Strip is next level. Splintex goes well on this track and Ranch Hand can sneak into the minor money.
RACE 8: MACKINNON STAKES (2000M)
Dufficy: Mo’unga did enough just behind Verry Elleegant in the Cox Plate, the bigger track suits him here and any rain would be a bonus. Stablemate Zaaki is off a setback but gets his chance to regain his throne here. Private Eye has different form but it is very good form and he could surprise while Colette has struck form now and 2000m appears ideal.
Thomas: Zaaki did have that setback which ruled him out of the Cox Plate and he’s had a month between runs but I want to be with him in the Mackinnon. I think Flemington will suit Zaaki and he’s the one to beat. Private Eye is probably looking for 2000m now and it will be interesting to see how he measures up at weight-for-age. Mo’unga is always competitive and Colette is in Group 1-winning form.
SATURDAY EXTRA
BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS
WYONG
BEST BET
Race 2, No.2: BLACK QUEEN
Chris Waller trained Mongolian Khan mare who came away for a big maiden win at Kembla on Everest day. Handles all going and should keep progressing from here.
NEXT BEST
Race 1, No.8: VITAE
Trained by Matthew Dunn; five of his last six runners all won. This one can be ‘6 from 7’ given that she is building up to a leak performance.
VALUE BET
Race 6, No.9: IRISH KISSES
Sister and stablemate to recent Four Pillars winner Kiss Sum. Won herself at her most recent start at Beaumont and looked great doing it.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 4,5,9,12
Race 6: 7,9
Race 7: 1,2,3,6
Race 8: 1,13
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Christian Reith has some excellent rides at Wyong and bar any scratchings, can win the TAB Jockeys Challenge.
GOULBURN
BEST BET
Race 1, No.3: SYMO’S GIRL
Mark De Montfort-trained mare who has only won once in her 16 starts but has found herself in the perfect race. Down in class and drawn well.
NEXT BEST
Race 3, No.6: THE TOWERS
Hawkesbury trained son of the mighty Choisir who has been known to pull out a big run at big odds at times. Her race lacks a bit of depth so she’ll get her chance.
VALUE BET
Race 6, No.1: DREAM ECLIPSE
Has a great draw to offset the big weight here at a track where he has been to once before. Ran a great third from last at the turn also when third-up as he is on Saturday.
Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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