Rosehill tips: Ray Duff and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ron Dufficy is keen on I Am Power who is trialling well ahead oh his return to racing while Ray Thomas likes import Francesco Guardi to claim his first Australian win.

Brutality is backing up from his fourth on last week's Festival Stakes. Picture: Grant Guy

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances for the 10-race Rosehill Gardens program on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 9, No.1: BRUTALITY

BEST VALUE

Race 4, No.4: I AM POWER

Race 7, No.1: HUETOR

RAY’S BEST

Race 8, No.1: FRANCESCO GUARDI

NEXT BEST

Race 1, No.8: SHIHONKA

VALUE BET

Race 5, No.1: BLACK DUKE

RACE 1: CABRA-VALE DIGGERS HCP (1350M)

Ron Dufficy: This is a tricky race but I do think it’s a nice race for Fashchanel. She strides forward up near the leader, makes her own luck with the claim and looks beautifully graded. Nicci’s Fling did enough in a race not run to suit and both her runs over this track and distance have been good. She is a winning chance, too. Shihonka returned from Victoria and looked good last start. She is up in class and is short enough in betting. Saigon has had a couple of trials and she has sprinted well fresh previously.

Ray Thomas:Shihonka shouldered 59kg to a strong midweek win on this track last start. Promising filly who drops 4.5kg and will be hard to beat although I take your point, Ronnie, she is well-found in betting. Nicci’s Fling ran an eye-catching first-up, she will be fitter and races well on this track. Air To Air is capable of winning race like this if things go her way. Strange Charm should be competitive and I concede Fashchanel should be in the mix.

RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1800m)

Dufficy: The Kembla Grange lead-up race looks the form here. I felt the best run out of that race was from Lucky Banner. I know she hasn’t won in a long time but she had excuses last start because she was held up before hitting the line strongly and 1800m should suit. I will lean her way at the better odds. Sumdeel was a month between runs going into that race and is pretty genuine. So is Lord Desanimaux who just missed last start and is always around the mark. Sizzling Cat has the ability but his racing style doesn’t help as he gets back in his races.

Thomas:Lord Desanimaux hit the line strongly when narrowly beaten at Kembla, continuing his run of good form this campaign. The 1800m trip has troubled him previously but he is very fit and from the soft draw should get all the favours. I can’t drop off Sizzling Cat. He can be his own worst enemy but this distance might be what he needs. Casirina will be up on speed and will stay this trip strongly. Sumdeel has drawn outside but with any luck should run well.

Lord Desanimaux can claim another TAB Highway win. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3: CANTERBURY-HURLSTONE PARK RSL SPRINT (1200m)

Dufficy: I’ve been very impressed with Snitzonfire. He keeps lifting the bar every time he goes to the races and looks a nice horse. He has been freshened after an easy trial with the Magic Millions in mind and he might stake a claim here. Starman trialled very nicely earlier in the week and is a typical Chris Waller improver. Sonnet Star comes out of a Group 3 during the Flemington Cup Carnival and does have plenty of talent. Sacrimony only won a Canterbury maiden but there has been some form out of that race.

Thomas:Snitzonfire is unbeaten after three starts and is obviously a promising type. He races on-speed so he takes bad luck out of the equation, and he has a fierce determination to win. Capo Strada won very impressively when resuming at Gosford and although this is harder, he stays under notice. Similarly, Ka Bling covered extra ground but unleashed a powerful surge to win at Wyong and he continues to improve with racing. Sonnet Star also rates among the main chances in what looks a very competitive race.

RACE 4: GUILDFORD LEAGUES CLUB HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: I like the way I Am Power has been trialling. He’s an import coming into his second preparation for trainer Mark Newnham, he’s going well and should be hard to beat. Mr Mosaic is a similar set-up to last time resuming without a trial and he will be in front for a long way. Wisdom Of Water showed a return to form in The Warra last start and if he can reproduce that effort he will be in the finish. Tycoonist will sit back off this strong speed and be charging late.

Thomas:Mr Mosaic is protecting a perfect first-up record. He’s a good short-course sprinter, well-weighted after the claim and the give in the track suits him. I Am Power will go close for all the reasons you mentioned, Ronnie. Wisdom Of Water was very good at Kembla Grange and looks to be back on track. Liberty Sun is an underrated sprinter who should be competitive with his lightweight.

Black Duke (left) can bounce back from his last start run at Kembla. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 5: MIDWAY HCP (1300m)

Dufficy: These Midways are usually tough, Ray, but I’m thinking the booking of James McDonald for Arctic Thunder is significant. She has only had the one trial where she was hard held, she is unbeaten first-up and should be ready to go. Nictock is going better than what his form suggests and just has to finish it off at the end of 1300m to be a good chance. Black Duke was a touch disappointing when he hit the front at Kembla Grange but didn’t go on with it but he might have been a little flat second-up that day and can improve. Awesome Lad did a good job chasing hard first-up and could have returned a better horse this campaign.

Thomas: I want to give Black Duke another chance. He was very good winning first-up at Canterbury but then disappointed at Kembla Grange. Fitter now and getting out to 1300m suits. He was placed in the Hawkesbury Guineas earlier this year and if he finds that form then he will be very hard to beat. Arctic Thunder has a good fresh record and rates as the main danger. Fenech is flying under the radar going into his comeback race. He has a good winning strike-rate, races well fresh and his two trials have been impressive. Diva Bella is over the odds and I’m wary of Awesome Lad.

RACE 6: CAMPBELLTOWN CATHOLIC CLUB HCP (1800m)

Dufficy: This is another tough race. I keep looking at Solar Apex at good odds. He finds himself in a much easier race than what he has been contesting and he gets the claim, dropping in class. He fits in pretty well here. I’ve got him on top from Spaltet who is an interesting horse. He is lightly raced and was unlucky at Hawkesbury. He is a middle-distance type who should shape up here. Karlstad has successive on-pace win in Queensland leading into this and should go well. For Valour has his confidence up and has a good chance again although he has to step up in distance.

Thomas:Rousseau is on the back-up after scoring a tough win at Moonee Valley last week. He’s going to get the gun run tucked in behind leaders and will be strong through the line. Seduction Queen was scratched from Kensington Friday for this race and she’s a very consistent mare. Solar Apex continues to race competitively. Karlstad is an improving type and should measure up to this level.

French import Huetor is looking to make it two from two in Australia. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7: CABRA BOWLS HCP (2000m)

Dufficy:Huetor is hard to knock. His Australian debut win at Newcastle was strong and you would think he can only improve. I thought he was good odds. Born A King is an improving import and I would be hoping for a drying track for him. Welsh Legend did a good job in an unsuitable race first-up, she’s had a nice trial since and should be in the finish. Comme Bella Fille has upside, she’s fourth-up from a win and comes out of an in-form stable.

Thomas:Huetor only had the one barrier trial going into his Newcastle win and he impressed with his fast-finishing effort over 1600m. His best form overseas has been over middle distances so the step up to 2000m will only suit him. Born A King is the danger. He’s also in winning form and the extra distance suits. Jazzland is likely to lead, he’s genuine and tough, and will give a great sight again. Comme Bella Fille is also racing in good form and commands respect.

RACE 8: DOOLEYS HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: I’m leaning to Francesco Guardi. He went close over this course and distance last start, he’s on the improve and has to be a leading chance. Le Vizir didn’t get much room down the straight at Rosehill last start and will appreciate the step up in distance. Waihaha Falls did a good job making ground late on a track that wasn’t playing that way last start and the soft track suits him. I was very impressed with Deficit’s win at Hawkesbury when he came from a long way back and another stable that is in great form.

Thomas:Francesco Guardi does look the one to beat. He has improved with each run this campaign and with his favourable draw, he’s going to get the run of the race. He’s ready to win. Too Much Caviar started favourite when third behind Born A King and Francesco Guardi last start. Likely leader and certain to be competitive. Casino Kid is up in grade but he is racing well without much luck. Le Vizir is another who had no luck last start and should go close.

Francesco Guardi (inside) can break through for his first win in Australia. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 9: BANKSTOWN SPORTS CLUB HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: If Brutality does back up, I feel he is the bet of the day. He did more than enough against the bias last week, he has a sensational back-up record, and hopefully the track is still soft enough for him because he will be very hard to hold out in a race like this. Canasta found trouble in the straight first-up and gets a trouble-free run on speed here. Katalin was very flat second-up after a brilliant comeback win and can improve. Bigboyroy will find this sort of his best distance but he can sprint well fresh.

Thomas: Nothing went right for Brutality last week but he still ran on well for fourth in the Festival Stakes. He’s bursting to win a race and if the track stays in the soft range, he gets his chance. Oxford Tycoon gets in well at the weights after the claim, races on speed and will be in this for a long way. Katalin raced below expectations at Newcastle but is fitter now and is worth another chance. Pandano has been disappointing this preparation but this is a more suitable race and he can improve at big odds.

RACE 10: SMITHFIELD RSL CLUB SPRINT (1200m)

Dufficy: There is plenty of speed here so I am looking for a swooper and it could be Tamerlane. He’s had one soft trial leading into this race, Hugh Bowman goes on board, he has a terrific first-up record and will be steaming home late. Rammstein is well drawn, he kicks up and finds an on-pace position which he loves. Much Much Better was very good at Newcastle when he led all the way. He is back in grade but does rise 7kg. Queen Bellissimo got favours but capitalised on them at Kembla Grange first-up winning with her head on her chest.

Thomas:Amiche is building a very good race record and she was impressive first-up for her new stable on this track a month ago. Kept fresh since and handles all track conditions. Much Much Better is in top form and comes off a dominant win at Newcastle. Rammstein has been improved by two runs from a spell and gets his chance here. Queen Bellissimo was very impressive when resuming at Kembla and could easily go right on with the job here.

SATURDAY EXTRA

Best bets with Shayne O’Cass

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 4, No.8: BLACK ON BEAUTY

Half-sister to Black On Gold; this Zoustar filly could not have been more impressive winning her two trials last month. Loaded with talent.

NEXT BEST

Race 3, No.11: LAVA

Great grandson of Horlicks and trained by the grandson of Bart Cummings. Needs it firm and gets that here.

VALUE BET

Race 2, No.2 MISS CONNIE

Needs to lift on her underwhelming debut at Gosford but she can because she’s better than that.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Louise Day rides three of Hall Of Famer Ron Quinton’s Newcastle-bound string - all of whom have a winning chances for the pair.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,3,5,11

Race 6: 1,2,4

Race 7: 3,7,8,11

Race 8: 3,4,8

SCONE

BEST BET

Race 9, No.12: CROSS STEP

Valuable daughter of Just Dancing who was set aside after a commanding maiden win at Tamworth in April. Resumes at home.

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No.7: KATGULLY RED

Highway standard son of Haradasun who invariably races well here at the home base. Third-up and ready to win again.

VALUE BET

Race 5, No.4: SAPELLO

Overcame an unwarranted betting drift to win at Quirindi in the most dominant fashion. Capable of taking the next step.

ALBURY

BEST BET

Race 4, No.5: SUPER RIFF

Was all at sea on a bottomless track at Gundagai on Snake Gully Cup Day. Expect better this time.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No.9: KEEP IT DOWN

Only won once in 15 starts but a lot of that is pattern-related. Can finish fast when circumstances permit.

Originally published as Rosehill tips: Ray Duff and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis