Rosehill races: Shayne O’Cass’ tips and extended preview

There is a plenty of value for punters at Rosehill Gardens, including an $11 chance ready to win, says form analyst Shayne O’Cass.

Mubariz looks a good each-way bet at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass runs the rule over every race, including suggested bets, for the Rosehill meeting on Saturday.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

ROSEHILL

Track: Heavy 9. Rail: True

RACE 1

The dogs were barking (loudly) about Flag of Honour on debut and they were right. He might be a top-liner this one; Has the pedigree and a whole lot more. You would think, surely, he has enough talent and whatever else it takes to measure up in an off-season Saturday race. Chris Waller trained Snitzel gelding Alberich was $2.90 out to $3.40 in a six-horse maiden at Canterbury but was never going to get beaten in the run, streaking away to win by two-lengths. No surprise that he got through the conditions given his old man; back home tomorrow, race experience.

BETTING ADVICE: Flag of Honour to win.

RACE 2

Expecting Brave Maso to be finishing off hard here third-up and stepping to 1200m. Lots to like about her, especially the price. Velorum is a dual acceptor; so not much we can say except he bolted in last start! Great draw and no weight here. Rebel Dreamer is a genuine talent from the now Scone based Luke Pepper stable. Couldn’t think of a better booking than Jason Collett for her given her booming finish.

BETTING ADVICE: Brave Maso each-way

RACE 3

Pizarro is a really nice horse by All Too Hard that has the potential to make it to better races as his career unfolds. His CV reads as a win and three seconds from his only four starts and boasts some genuine depth to his form. Nice horse. Smashing Eagle, the Team Hawkes colt, was a good thing off his trial when he won at Gosford but reckon even his most ardent fans weren’t expecting him to be so utterly dominant as that. He’s a Saturday class horse every day of the week.

BETTING ADVICE: Pizarro

RACE 4

Was very keen on Air Of Alsace when she resumed here finishing runner-up to Monte Ditto (runs here too). The Jason Coyle-trained galloper is a daughter of Contributer out of a Sinddar mare so she is/was one of those mares that will only keep on getting better with each passing day. Bartoselli is a hundred times better than what we say from him first-up. McCormack hasn’t won at Rosehill in nine goes but he is invariably around the money

BETTING ADVICE: Air Of Alsace to win

Air Of Alsace (left) finishes second to Monte Ditto at Rosehill Gardens.

RACE 5

Still copping it for tipping Mubariz first-up in the Civic Stakes but go and watch the replay, how could he possibly have won from where he was in the run? No fault of the jockey, that happens when you draw 12 of 14. My point is, he was so brave, he refused to yield at any stage and to be beaten five lengths was more than a pass mark. Great each-way hope at around $11. Lord Ardmore takes control here and dictates, they might not be able to get near him, let alone go past the Reliable Man gelding.

BETTING ADVICE: Mubariz to win

RACE 6

Fascinating to see how the market treats Head Of State. Fair and square, he is the best horse in the race but is he ready? Trials are impossible to read one way or another. Me? I am chancing the arm on the lightly-raced Waller import here, Lovely Esteem, who will no doubt improve off what was a pretty good Australian debut (off no trial) here on June 18 over 1300m. Will be some win if Alycone can get the job done bearing in mind that he has topweight and is first-up at 1500m on a testing track.

BETTING ADVICE: Lovely Esteem each-way

RACE 7

Brimstone has been a minor revelation since he came over from New Zealand to Brad Widdup. Has some very deep form, noting that he was runner-up to Cross Talk at his Australian debut and beat another subsequent winner, Highly Desired, last start. Irish Legend likewise, has made a real impact since he came to our shores. Yiyi has some very, very compelling numbers. Grande Rumore is back in town after a couple of fantastic runs at Flemington. This is the type of race Dream Circle can win; fitter for a reasonable first-up effort.

BETTING ADVICE: Grande Rumore to win, Dream Circle to place

RACE 8

Philipsburg will be close to favourite if Wednesday Warwick Farm winner The Milkybar Kid is out. Whatever the case, ‘The Burg’ is one of the most honest and genuine racehorses in Sydney. This is an ideal race for him (again). You can see why James Ponsonby wanted to back him up from last weekend’s third. Been with Flexible for a while now this prep that is, and even though there doesn’t look to be a lot to show for it, she has been a bit unlucky at times. All comes down to tempo and pattern.

BETTING ADVICE: Flexible to win

Rachel King on Philipsburg wins at Kembla Grange.

RACE 9

Everyone who follows provincial racing is talking about one horse and one horse only - Frumos. This Orbis/Waller import was unbelievable winning last start at Newcastle, I haven’t seen a comparable win there in a compravle race since Mo’unga in the early days. She might not be the next Mo’Unga but surely, surely, she has to be a Saturday class off-season horse for now. Sur La Mer is a very consistent mare on one a hat-trick herself as it happens and is almost each-way odds.

BETTING ADVICE: Frumos to win

RACE 10

Pretty keen on Vienna Rain but only if they are able to finish off. Goes well fresh, handles the wet and the trial was fantastic. Just Field is going to have this run to suit (too) big time and if they can get home on the day, she might ambush them late.Shades Of Roses has been back to the trials (and went super naturally) post her buckjumping performance first-up. Drawn very wide here but whether that is good or bad, only time will tell. If the pattern is leaders/on-pace, it’s hello and goodbye

BETTING ADVICE: Vienna Rain

Originally published as Rosehill races: Shayne O’Cass’ tips and extended preview