Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass’s best bets and analysis
Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass are both confident John O’Shea’s latest import Diamil can continue his impressive rise through the grades.
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THE Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and The Sportsman’s form expert Shayne O’Cass debate the chances on the 10-race Royal Randwick program on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
RAY’S BEST
Race 8, No.3: DAMIL
NEXT BETS
Race 4, No.4. ALEAS
VALUE BET
Race 1, No.2: CZAR
SHAYNE’S BEST
Race 2, No.6: SUNBORN
NEXT BEST
Race 8, No.3: DAMIL
VALUE BET
Race 4, No.4. ALEAS
RACE 1: SCHWEPPES HANDICAP (1100m)
Ray Thomas: Czar unleashed a powerful late surge to score well on debut at Hawkesbury. He stays at 1100m but has drawn well and should be able to settle closer to the lead than he did at Hawkesbury. There is a stack of speed in this race which will suit Czar who appeals at double figure odds. Zougotcha looks highly impressive on debut at Canterbury. Drawn wide here and where she gets to in the run is the concern. Zou Tiger led for home at Canterbury but was no match for Zougotcha. Command Approved comes off a brilliant trial win and handles heavy ground.
Shayne O’Cass: Plymstock is a half-sister to Trekking who goes in the Irwin Stakes in Adelaide later on today, RT, and I think it might be a double for the siblings. Plymstock was very good winning at Randwick on debut beating a good field and the trial the other day was first class. Czar finished all of the top his rivals at Hawkesbury on debut and has a favourable draw on Saturday. Impossible not to be impressed with Zougotcha when she defeated subsequent winner Sweet Baby Boom at the midweeks.
RACE 2: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1100m)
Thomas: With Pleading’s scratching, I’m going with Winning Verse. She showed promise as a two-year-old but has raced only once this season and that was back in August. She looked sharp in a recent Warwick Farm trial. Mosht Up and Impulse Control are racing in top form and handles wet tracks. Just Field invariably sprints well fresh.
O’Cass: I’ve always been a fan of Sunborn. The Edward Cummings-trained mare was below her usual standard when she finished down the order at Warwick Farm back in February but her recent trial suggests she is in great shape and James McDonald is a significant booking. Drawn to get every chance. Winning Verse likewise was in and out after one run last preparation but has trialled up really well. Impulse Control and Mosht Up ran the quinella at Newcastle and are battle hardened compared to the other two.
RACE 3: TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400m)
Thomas: Fourmadec, the first emergency, will be hard to beat. She has been very impressive finishing fast to win successive races at Canberra. Untried on a heavy surface but placed twice in two attempts on soft going. Cracking Mo led for a long way at Randwick last week and he will be hard to beat on the quick back-up. Jousting took 28 starts to break his maiden and went to the paddock with three wins from four starts last campaign. Resuming here but trialled very well inside the brilliant Ice In Vancouver at Tamworth. Mr Hussill was caught on the wrong part of the track last week and his effort to run fourth was very good.
O’Cass: Trainer Matthew Dunn has a handful of top chances on the card, not the least Fourmadec, who has only missed a place once in her six starts. She has been nothing short of barnstorming, to use a Thomas expression, at her last two wins in Canberra and so long as she can find an out from barrier one, she might have their measure in the Highway. Largo Wench was a borderline “good thing” first-up at Orange and while she only fell in, she was 1400m first-up on a Heavy 8 off one 740m trial. Ferus did too much work early in his race at Orange which told on him late and he has claims here from the nice draw.
RACE 4: PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1800m)
Thomas: Aleas, a stakeswinner in England, made his Australian debut at Newcastle and it was impossible to miss his closing effort for fourth behind O’President over 1400m. He has had a trial between runs and the step up to 1800m is more suitable. Irish Sequel has had a similar preparation to his stablemate Aleas and ran a good fifth at Newcastle when caught on the worst part of the track. Mr Gee can improve on his Canberra Cup run and Our Intrigue is fitter and out to her right distance range.
O’Cass: Clearly no one missed the Australian debut of the Chris Waller import Aleas at Newcastle. He’s had a little tick over trial in between and finds himself in what is ostensibly an off-season race that lacks numbers and depth. Expecting huge improvement from another import here in Mirann who was tipped out after finishing last in Think It Over’s Rosehill Cup on Golden Eagle day. Trialling well and can play a role. Ditto for the stablemate Mr Gee who is one for one on a Heavy track.
RACE 5: GRAINSHAKER VODKA HCP (1200m)
Thomas: I’ve gone a little wide here with Street Power at each way odds, Shayno. He had to work very hard from a wide barrier to cross and lead the Scone Wild Card last start before fading late to run eighth in track record time. Fitter for two runs from a spell, he won third-up last campaign, handles wet track and the drop back to 1200m is in his favour. Kir Royale is a promising filly and stablemate Zarastro give trainer Chris Waller a strong presence in this race. Sense Of Honour did a good job first-up after a long break and she can only improve.
O’Cass: Zarastro has a good race in him at some stage. The $1.05 million yearling has been safely held in his two runs down in Melbourne to open the new campaign but I suspect that he will be happy to get back to more familiar territory on Saturday bearing in mind that he was runner-up to Paulele on debut at his only Randwick appearance. Kir Royale has done nothing wrong albeit in lesser company than this. Too consistent to leave out. Barossa Rosa has a few things against her, namely the weight and the outside draw but still not an impossible task.
RACE 6: CHANDON HANDICAP (1400m)
Thomas: Quintello is an imported mare who bounded away to win by four lengths at Mornington when resuming. She’s developing a good record and finds herself in a winnable race. Miss Redoble was caught on the worst part of the track but still did well to beat all but Regal Stage in the Muswellbrook Cup. Genuine mare who will run her usual competitive race. Miss Ostend should have won at Canberra last and is a very good chance in this race or the Highway if she gains a start. Devils Triangle held on to beat Miss Ostend last start and is holding her form.
O’Cass: Miss Ostend was eating up the ground late in a TAB Federal at Canberra last start behind Devil’s Triangle who is also not without a massive chance here. The caveat with Miss Ostend is the wet, she has won on soft but she was pretty underwhelming on her only Heavy track run in a Highway here in December. Big watch on Quintello. She has been backed here with a fair degree of confidence given she is from the Maher-Eustace stable and James McDonald rides. Elusive Jewel was good winning first-up.
RACE 7: FURPHY HANDICAP (1100m)
Thomas: Andermatt was absolutely brilliant first-up at Canterbury, putting six lengths on Dragonstone at Canterbury. The Godolphin sprinter’s only four career wins have been at the start of a preparation but he looks ready to put together a winning streak. Dragonstone meets Andermatt 6kg better at the weights but needs to make up six lengths. Spaceboy is flying at the trials and he does go well over the Randwick 1100m course. Mariamia makes her debut for the Joe Pride stable but has trialled very well at Warwick Farm.
O’Cass: This looks a very fast run race, RT. Looks like the favourite Andermatt is going to land in a sweet spot and come late. The Snitzel-Portillo gelding is no doubt being aimed at stakes races this preparation and this looks a suitable stepping stone for him. Lord Olympus is in the right race as it were but it is a lot stronger than what connections might have hoped. Wide draw is an issue on paper at least but he may be able to get across. Stablemate Dragonstone loves high pressure sprints and will be charging late.
RACE 8: DRINKWISE MILE (1600m)
Thomas: Diamil did well first-up at Canterbury then went to another level at Warwick Farm, powering clear of his rivals to win with real authority last start. He should handle the step up to Saturday grade. Sindacato did well at Rosehill last month and had a soft trial in between runs. He’s the big danger. Philipsburg is a real mudlark and comes off a dominant midweek meeting. Tampering is genuine and won’t be far away.
O’Cass: Diamil is a promising 1600m-2000m type for John O’Shea. He was very good at his Australian debut and improved again big time when he won at Warwick Farm beating Wednesday winner, Main Stage. The thing about him, RT, is that he looks like one of those horses that would improve again even though he was very impressive on the day. Ting Tong is one of the value runners of the day. I can’t see how he is $31. In fact, you could make a case to say that he should have won all four this time in, including that night at Canterbury where he ran seventh! Phillipsburg may not have peaked yet. Bethencourt trialled well the other morning.
RACE 9: THE AGENCY HANDICAP (1300m)
Thomas: Taksu was beaten fair and square by O’President at Newcastle over 1400m and it is quite likely they will fight out the finish again. I’m going with Taksu to exact revenge back at 1300m because he should be able to control the tempo to suit. Rustic Steel is racing in very good form but the wide barrier is a concern. O’President enjoys racing on wet tracks and Surf Dancer has ability.
O’Cass: Rustic Steel drew off the course in the Tamworth Cup on Friday and was kept for Randwick instead. He comes off a close and honourable fourth to his stablemate Kinloch in the Provincial-Midway Championship Final and he handles wet tracks. Taksu makes his own luck and the wetter the better for him. I have to mention O’President who beat Taksu and Rustic Steel last start.
RACE 10: RANVET HANDICAP (1400m)
Thomas: Too Much Caviar makes his own luck on speed and probably gets the opportunity to control the tempo from the front here. Tough and genuine, he’s at his peak after two runs from a spell and gets his chances here. Different Strokes drew off the track and nothing went right for him first-up. From the favourable barrier, he’s the big improver. Francesco Guardi is short enough in betting given he is first-up on a heavy track, drawn wide and the rail is out 11m. Toretto is an emerging type and one to watch here.
O’Cass: Last race Willie Pike for me, RT. Pike has the ride on Toretto who comes to town in dazzling form. This Matthew Dale-trained son of Press Statement could just as easily have won his last five starts but whatever the case, he’s won three of them in “barnstorming” style. He’s just tailor-made for Randwick. Nikau Spur ended the last preparation with a distant last to Mr Brightside in a Benchmark 78 at Flemington but the gelding was back on song flashing home late for a first-up third at Canterbury over 1250m. Amulet Street might go to Wellington on Saturday - how do they beat him there.
SUGGESTED BETS
Shayne O’Cass’ top picks
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 8, No.9: SUPERARGO
Rock solid on debut when runner-up at Muswellbrook on Jan 4. Spelled and has trialled up a treat ahead of Saturday’s return to racing.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.14: VEANDECHANCE
Vancouver from head to toe, this striking filly from the Matthew Dunn stable has trialled like she will be winning races beyond this.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.7: RARE BEAUTY
Speaking of trials, this Robert and Luke Price trained two-year-old only has to run up to her Warwick Farm heat win the other day and she will be in the finish.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 4,5
Race 6: 1,10
Race 7: 1,4,8
Race 8: 9
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Keagan Latham counts Kembla as his most successful track and he’s ridden at over 120 of them in nine countries.
WELLINGTON
BEST BET
Race 1, No.1: AMULET STREET
Great grandson of the immortal Bounding Away. Talk about down in class. He’s in a C2 Plate Country only out of a Country Championship Final.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.4: STARIKS
Lee and Cherie Curtis-trained gelding who won’t have to improve much to go one better than his second here on March 25. Has the winning draw this time.
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.14: EXTRA FLASH
Form is very good if you can overlook the April 1st failure at Muswellbrook on the Heavy 8. Chances soar if the track dries out even more.
Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass’s best bets and analysis
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