Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ron Dufficy is keen on Gravina to strike back after a luckless first-up defeat while Ray Thomas is confident Think It Over will be too good for his rivals.
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THE Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the big race chances on Epsom Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
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SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 10, No.12: GRAVINA
BEST VALUE
Race 1, No.5: ASHEMA
RAY’S BEST
Race 5, No.1: THINK IT OVER
NEXT BEST
Race 9, No.20: ZEYREK
VALUE BET
Race 8, No.17: SKY LAB
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R1: Midway Hcp (1000m)
Ron Dufficy: I think Ashema is big odds. She has been running in stakes races as a two-year-old around the right horses and was good first-up running third at Gosford in fast time. This race sets up well for her. Capital Reign hasn’t put a foot wrong this preparation and could give Alysha Collett a flying start on Epsom Day. Delexo looks a different horse this preparation under the in-form Kristen Buchanan stable. The Neon Knight is a good longshot from an inside draw.
Ray Thomas:Capital Reign is storming through his grades this preparation. He’s blessed with abundant speed and has the ability to accelerate again under pressure. He runs time and is the one to catch again. Oh Please Dianna is a consistent, genuine mare coming off a good win at Gosford. Saquon was disappointing first-up but this is a drop in grade and he can improve. Delexo has been an impressive winner of both starts this preparation and there is no reason he can’t win again.
TAB MARKETS: Lancaster Bomber $13-$9-$8.50, Oh Please Dianna $9.50-$7 ($400 @ $9.50, $500 @ $7.50), Capital Reign $3.10-$3.20-$2.70-$3 ($350 @ $3.20, $477 @ $3.10, $750 @ $2.90, $1,000 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.90), Ashema $9.50-$7.50 ($400 @ $9.50, $500 @ $7.50), Rejinsky $23-$13
R2: Gimcrack Stakes (1000m)
Dufficy:Coolangatta looks all quality and was the pick from the two-year-old trials when coasting to victory. It is not easy for two-year-olds from a wide draw so she just needs a bit to go right for her and she will be hard to beat. Wild Botanica has had the advantage of two good trials and she ran the fastest time of the day at Randwick. She has the inside draw and has to be considered. I liked the way Drisana savaged the line to win her trial and she will be strong late. Pantonario showed brilliant gate speed and held on well running third to Wild Botanica and from that draw will give plenty of cheek.
Thomas: I’m also with Coolangatta. She looked a natural winning her trial with ease and is the one to beat despite her awkward draw. Drisana was another impressive trial winner, finishing strongly late and she is from a stable renowned for producing early season two-year-olds. Pantonario looks a ready-made filly with natural pace and I also liked what Mumbai Jewel did at the trials.
TAB MARKETS: Coolangatta $2.15-$2.20-$1.95-$2 ($500 @ $2), Deep Expectation $26-$19, Street Smarts $101-$71, Wild Botanica $8-$7-$7.50 ($200 @ $8)
R3: Breeders Plate (1000m)
Dufficy: I like one at odds here in Psychiatrist. He showed good speed in his trial, won well after looking about so there is obviously improvement to come. At double figures he is worth a gamble. Zambezi River is a high-priced colt from the Chris Waller yard and he looks a likely type. Victory Moments has had two trials and I loved what he did in his latest trial win. Emperor is a real nice horse at big odds and is on track to run well.
Thomas:Kibou is a well-educated younger and thoroughly professional winning his trial. The wide barrier is a concern but I’m still going to side with his obvious natural ability. Victory Moments defeated Zambezi River in their trial but both colts are very talented and well drawn. I also have Psychiatrist in my numbers as he impressed in his trial win.
TAB MARKETS: Hard To Say $51-$21, Master Showman $26-$18, Zambezi River $6-$5-$5.50 ($750 @ $5.50, $400 @ $5)
R4: TAB Handicap (1600m)
Dufficy: With the scratching of Brookspire I’m leaning to Kiss The Bride. He did well to win after an aggressive ride last start and this is a similar type of race. He will tough it out again. Taksu probably wants a drop of racing and if he gets it he’s a tough on-pace customer. Bigboyroy is set to run another solid race. He is a couple of kilos better off at the weights but he seems to be lacking a killer punch of late. Five Kingdom ran well at his first start for the new stable and is one to watch.
Thomas:Bigboyroy was beaten by Kiss The Bride over the Randwick mile last start but I think he can exact revenge here. As you said Ronnie, Bigboyroy meets Kiss The Bride better at the weights, he’s very fit and this is his chance. Kiss The Bride is the one to beat again, I’m expecting an improved showing from Just Thinkin’ and Kordia is racing in good form.
TAB MARKETS: Al Mah Haha $26-$34-$12 ($500 @ $34)
R5: Hill Stakes (2000m)
Dufficy:Share Ambition is good value here. He has a lovely set-up here. There is no leader and he has more of a turn of speed than most here and I lean his way. Think It Over is a legitimate weight-for-age performer and will be hard to beat again. The two I could warm to are Keiai Nautique and Duais but I don’t know if this race will be run to suit them.
Thomas:Think It Over has developed into one of the nation’s elite gallopers this year. I take your point that this is a race devoid of speed but Think It Over has the tactical speed to settle where he is comfortable then his acceleration, determination and class gives him the edge. Duais is a class mare who comes off an eye-catching first-up third in the Cameron Handicap and she is better suited out to 2000m. Keiai Nautique has been competitive in both Australian starts and Shared Ambition will be very competitive.
TAB MARKETS: Think It Over $4-$2.25-$2 ($2,500 @ $2, $500 @ $2, $400 @ $2, $300 @ $2)
R6: Premiere Stake (1200m)
Dufficy: I’m expecting to see a different Masked Crusader here. He was on the wrong part of the track and looked to have improvement to come out of The Shorts and now gets out to 1200m. I have a slight leaning his way over Rothfire who was brilliant first-up after a long spell. They won’t want to forget Jonker. He had excuses first-up and he is set to run well. Lost And Running is on notice but I am sure he will improve.
Thomas:Masked Crusader was outstanding first-up at Caulfield then gave away too much start in The Shorts when unplaced behind Eduardo. Masked Crusader will appreciate getting to 1200m and is ready to win. Rothfire ran very well first-up in The Shorts and he will give Masked Crusader something to chase from the turn. I also expect Lost And Running to run a much better race and the speedy Jonker will run well.
TAB MARKETS: Masked Crusader $2.80-$3-$2.40 ($500 @ $3, $362 @ $2.90, $500 @ $2.60 TWICE, $500 @ $2.40), Rothfire $3.60-$3.30-$3.40 ($500 @ $3.30)
R7: Flight Stakes (1600m)
Dufficy: I like Mallory as a filly. She was arguably unlucky last start, I liked the way she has worked up to the mile and I can see her finding the one-one here and running another good race. Anything goes here, you can go wide, and I think Fangirl has really caught the eye. I know she has only won a Goulburn maiden but she won racing away and is an emerging filly. Von Trapp is a beautiful staying filly who could come into play late in this race. Four Moves Ahead has found her form and will be hard to beat.
Thomas:Mallory has been unlucky in each of her three runs this spring but this is her chance. Drawn well, the 1600m suits and if she gets clear galloping room for the turn she will be charging to the line. Swift Witness will settle on speed making her own luck and she will take running down. I was also taken by Fangirl’s last start win, albeit in weaker grade but she looks a progressive filly. Startantes was very good in the Golden Rose and she will go close.
TAB MARKETS: Mallory $6-$4.80 ($15,385 @ $6.50), Startantes $3.70-$4 ($1,000 @ $4, $800 @ $4, $500 @ $4), Fangirl $13-$11-$12-$14 ($200 e/w @ $13/$3.80, $500 @ $12, $250 e/w @ $12/$3.60, $200 @ $12), Stray $51-$41-$26 ($1,000 e/w @ $51/$11, $2,000 x $1,000 e/w @ $41/$9)
R8: Epsom Handicap (1600m)
Dufficy: I can’t get out of my head Dalasan’s two Randwick runs last autumn when he ran minor placings in the Doncaster Mile and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, beaten less than a length in both. Trainer Leon McDonald has put a lot of thought into his Epsom preparation, third-up he peaks, he can settle closer than he did at Caulfield last start and they have found James McDonald. So, good trainer, good jockey and good price. Private Eye is more suited in an Epsom with more speed and pressure. Icebath is flying, she did run second in the Doncaster in the autumn and she is in that sort of form again. Riodini is obviously the weight horse and only has to cope with more pressure up front to be hard to beat.
Thomas:Sky Lab’s second-up effort in the Cameron Handicap was outstanding. He was three and four-wide without cover throughout the race but he still closed strongly to just miss. He was only just beaten by Mo’unga at level weights in the Rosehill Guineas earlier this year but meets his rival 4.5kg better at the weights this time. Mo’unga is an outstanding horse who has gone to a new level this spring and is the one to beat. Icebath is racing well without much luck this spring. She handles all track conditions but excels on rain-affected going. The tough, resolute Private Eye will be finishing hard.
TAB MARKETS: Mo’unga $6-$7.50-$6.50 ($300 @ $7.50, $400 e/w @ $6.50/$2.50), Dalasan $15-$16-$13 ($200 x $500 e/w @ $16/$4.80), Hungry Heart $8-$7.50-$8.50 ($500 @ $8, $300 @ $7.50, $300 x $200 e/w @ $7.50/$2.62, $1,000 @ $7.50), Icebath $9-$9.50-$10 ($500 @ $9.50, $400 @ $9.50, $500 @ $9), Riodini $5-$4.40-$5-$4.80 ($500 @ $5, $2,500 @ $4.80 & $3,500 @ $4.60 (same customer), $4,000 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.40), Private Eye $13-$8 ($300 @ $13, $400 @ $12, $500 @ $11, $200 x $500 e/w @ $10/$3.25, $400 @ $9.50, $500 @ $9, $1,700 @ $8, $1,300 @ $8, $500 e/w @ $8/$2.80, $500 @ $8), Atishu $15-$17 ($500 e/w @ $17/$5, $200 x $300 e/w @ $16/$4.75), Sky Lab $26-$19 ($300 e/w @ $19/$5)
R9: The Metropolitan (2400m)
Dufficy:Montefilia is the one to beat. I am just hoping for a good ride from Hugh Bowman as she is drawn off the track. If he can slot in and find a back I thought her run was better than anything considering the bias last start and she meets She’s Ideel 3kg better at the weights. Attorney is the danger. It was a hidden run last start and he is ready to improve out to 2400m. Quick Thinker comes right into this race if we have any rain at all. He likes to grind away up front and I thought he was unlucky in the Newcastle Cup when losing momentum at a vital stage. Luncies is yet to peak this preparation and could bring about a shock result.
Thomas: I wanted to put Montefilia on top but I keep looking at her weight of 55.5kg and barrier 17 compared to Zeyrek on 50kg and gate two. Montefilia is an outstanding mare and she might be too good but will need everything to go her way which is why I’m going against her. Zeyrek finished within a length of the mare last start, meets her considerably better at the weights and should get the right run.
TAB MARKETS: Entente $11-$7-$6 ($300 e/w @ $9/$3), Great House $17-$15, No Compromise $15-$13, Zeyrek $51-$10-$8 ($500 @ $23, $300 @ $19, $500 @ $9.50 TWICE, $500 @ $9)
R10: Cleanaway Hcp (1200m)
Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on Gravina. I thought she should have won first-up when she went to the wrong part of the track on straightening and that cost her victory. She can atone here. Big Parade was very good first-up then a little flat last start. He needs to prove he can train on through a preparation. Rocketing By has had two trials and his latest with blinkers on was good. Fender is a talented horse in his own right and always races well fresh.
Thomas:Big Parade went out too hard in the Theo Marks Stakes when third to Chat. He’s coming back in grade and distance and this looks the perfect race for him. I agree Gravina is the danger after her very good first-up run. Fender is a smart sprinter and will be hard to beat. Prime Candidate has been trialling very well.
TAB MARKETS: Big Parade $5-$3.90-$4 ($250 @ $5, $300 @ $4.60, $250 @ $4), Prime Candidate $21-$10 ($3,000 @ $11, $400 @ $11 TWICE), Never Talk $13-$11-$12-$10 ($300 @ $12, $200 @ $11), Gravina $7-$4.80-$3 ($350 @ $7, $200 @ $7, $750 @ $6.50, $350 @ $6, $450 @ $5.50, $500 @ $5, $400 e/w @ $4.80/$2, $750 @ $3.50)
FLEMINGTON
R7: Turnbull Stakes (2000m)
Dufficy:Verry Elleegant’s record third-up and at 2000m is second-to-none. With a bit of rain around in Melbourne it helps her chances and I think she can run down Incentivise. I concede Incentivise is a very good horse but he runs into a champion mare here so he gets his chance to prove himself. There is a gap to the rest with Colette’s chances increasing if we get more rain and is probably third pick.
Thomas:Verry Elleegant was outstanding late winning the George Main Stakes and she does have a near-perfect third-up record. She will be stalking Incentivise and invariably in tight finishes she finds a way to win. Incentivise also comes off a last start Group 1 win in the Makybe Diva Stakes and like Verry Elleegant he is better suited at 2000m. Colette and Sir Dragonet are the other chances.
TAB MARKETS: Incentivise $2.90-$3-$2.80 ($731 @ $2.90, $1,000 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.80), Verry Elleegant $2.50-$2.40-$2.30 ($1,000 @ $2.50, $500 @ $2.50, $580 @ $2.40, $1,170 @ $2.30, $5,000 @ $1.22 PLACE), Colette $7.50-$9-$8
SATURDAY EXTRA
BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS
NEWCASTLE
BEST BET
Race 7, No.6: FAVRA
Excels here at home at Newcastle, favours the trip goes well fresh and has trialled up keenly for a winning return.
NEXT BEST
Race 4, No.2: KOKORO
You wouldn’t find too many better bred horses than this colt whose third dam is Coup De Folie no less. Trialling like a horse who is bound for much better races than this.
VALUE BET
Race 8, No.6: DREAMING OF GOLD
Has a compelling first-up record and looks ready to win off the back of a brilliant trial win at Scone earlier in the month. Market watch essential but seems ready.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 4,7,11
Race 6: 7,9
Race 7: 6
Race 8: 6
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Ash Morgan is going to be give the TAB Jockeys Challenge a red-hot go provided all his mounts turn up on the day.
WAGGA
BEST BET
Race 1, No.3: DOLPHINA
Tait/Nivison family mare who traces on a direct line to their great broodmare Dark Jewel. Looking at three straight wins today racing at home.
NEXT BEST
Race 5, No.2: CARNIVAL MISS
Gary Colvin trained mare by Zariz who has raced 10 times, 8 of them have been here at home where her only win (so far) was. Getting close to another one.
VALUE BET
Race 4, No.5: FLY BY KHAN
Had admirers on debut off a good trial but was very, very disappointing in that Corowa maiden. May be worth sticking with given that she had the race-day experience.
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