Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas preview every race on Day 1 of The Championships, and analyse every runner in the Doncaster Mile and TJ Smith Stakes.
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The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate all the big-race chances on Derby-Doncaster Day at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 9, No.2: I’M THUNDERSTRUCK
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.3: STRAIGHT ARRON
BEST VALUE
Race 7, No.15: BENAUD
RAY’S BEST
Race 2, No.3: STRAIGHT ARRON
NEXT BEST
Race 10, No.10: A VERY FINE RED
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.3: ACHIRA
RACE 1: KINDERGARTEN STAKES (1100m)
Ron Dufficy: It’s a tricky start to the day with not a lot of wet form but I think on race form alone Semillion stands out on his good run in the Blue Diamond. He has had five weeks off but is back a little in distance and should be hard to beat. The dangers are the first starters Ginger’s Gal and Asteria. They are both unbeaten in their trials and look very fast horses. Voldemort was very good to the eye at Scone and this race sets up for him with plenty of speed up front and he certainly has talent.
Ray Thomas: Semillion drew off the track in the Blue Diamond and had to work hard to cross the field and lead early. He held that lead for a long way before finishing a close fifth. If he handles the heavy ground, he is the one to catch. Nominator was impressive first-up in heavy going at Gosford. Ginger’s Gal has looked good at the trials and Voldemort will be finishing fast.
RACE 2: CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600m)
Dufficy: I’m keen on Straight Arron, I really like this horse. I know he was beaten at the midweeks first-up but the winner, Loch Eagle, is a promising type and was very fit. I’m convinced he will be hard to beat and this is a lovely race for him. Jalmari has gone from winning a maiden at Nowra three starts back to running fifth in an Ajax Stakes. He looks a real wet-tracker and if he reproduces his last run, he should be hard to beat. Flying Crazy has won two of his last three starts and is going well. Cap Estel is back a little in grade but this is the track and distance she won at two starts back.
Thomas: I’ve made Straight Arron my best for the day. He looks an emerging talent and I liked the way he attacked the line when resuming and will strip fitter. Flying Crazy finished strongly to win the Canberra Guineas but is a query in these very heavy conditions. Jalmari keeps improving with racing and Gulf Of Saros is very fit, races on speed and should be competitive.
RACE 3: ADRIAN KNOX STAKES (2000m)
Dufficy: This race can throw up an upset. I want to be forgiving of Roots last start in the Phar Lap Stakes. She has been back to the trials, she has the best form and if the stable is happy to run her, I am happy to put her clearly on top here. Chenin is a likely improver. She was strong late winning last start and looks to have upside. I’m very interested in Mamounia. I don’t like the set-up going from 1300m to 2000m but I really like the way she is surging through the line looking a real stayer. There’s a filly at $151, Mauricently who I have been waiting for them to put the blinkers on and she looks a strong stayer.
Thomas: I’m going a little wide here with Achira. She was impressive getting through near the inside to win a Midway against older horses in heavy going at Rosehill. Bred to handle a middle distance and at double figure odds she is a good each way chance. I’m Divine threw away certain victory at Canberra but has since trialled brilliantly. Chenin is showing promise and Honeycreeper looks a strong staying filly.
RACE 4: CHAIRMAN’S QUALITY (2600m)
Dufficy: I like the way Great House has returned from a spell. He’s third-up, this distance suits, good draw, likes it wet and will run well at the odds. I like the improvement Chalk Stream has shown from one race to the next. He still lacks race sense but will be in the finish here. Zeyrek gets his chance back at Randwick. Stockman is backing up from a great run for second in the Tancred Stakes, he is flying and loves it wet.
Thomas: If Stockman backs up here, then I want to be on him. He was very good beating all but the outstanding Duais in the Tancred Stakes on Monday and excels on wet tracks. Chalk Stream endured a wide run but ran on resolutely for a very good third in the Queen’s Cup and will be hard to beat here, particularly with a 6kg weight pull over Stockman. Great House is going well, as you pointed out Ronnie, he stays strongly and handles these wet tracks. Zeyrek races on speed and will give himself every chance.
RACE 5: COUNTRY CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL (1400m)
Dufficy: I didn’t take much notice of Another One winning at Wagga but since I’ve done the form and watched his recent trial, he could be the forgotten horse here. Commando Hunt is the best wet-tracker in the race, he is stupid odds with the big jockey change. Far Too Easy has had a decent gap between runs which has put me off a little with the conditions we have got but he has some very strong formlines for this race. Testator Silens has the break between runs and strikes this very heavy track but it’s hard to deny his winning strike-rate.
Thomas: In a very open race I am leaning to Far Too Easy. He had to do it tough to win his heat at Grafton and has now won five of his eight starts. He’s won his only three starts on soft tracks. Cavalier Charles is in a rich vein of form and will go close. Testator Silens has won five of his six starts and just seems to find a way under pressure. Another One has good acceleration but the heavy track is a query.
RACE 6: INGLIS SIRES’ (1400m)
Dufficy: Showcourt, I feel, is the best horse. He was unlucky in the Todman Stakes and his recent trial was impressive, he can train on and is on top for me. Fireburn has no gate speed and I am worried about the speed in this race as there are no leaders in the field but she is still capable of getting over the top of them. Warby was an eye-catching run in the Black Opal and I can’t let Shalatin go around without me. He had an issue forcing him out of the Golden Slipper. He’s had a nice trial since and hopefully he can get a grip in the very heavy going.
Thomas: Fireburn’s Golden Slipper win was outstanding. She struck plenty of trouble during the race yet was still able to burst through to win by more than two lengths. This filly is fiercely determined, handles wet tracks and gives the impression 1400m will be ideal. Magic has shown enough talent in his two starts to indicate he is good enough to win a race like this if he gets luck in running. Showcourt has had no luck in his two starts but he obviously has ability and this distance suits him. Shalatin would have been close to top pick on a drier track.
RACE 7: ATC AUSTRALIAN DERBY (2400m)
Dufficy: I’m keen on the back-up horses from the Tulloch Stakes on Monday. I am keen on Benaud, he hit the line nicely, he has come solid at the right time, and the fitness from that recent run will stand him in good stead. If I’m tipping Benaud then I have to include Regal Lion as the danger. He was very good finishing second in the Tulloch Stakes and showed in the NZ Derby he can stay by producing that long-sustained run. Hitotsu is an outstanding galloper and it will be a huge achievement if he can jump from 1600m to 2400m and handle these very wet track conditions. It’s unconventional but I have to trust the stable. Forgot You is very fit and ready for a peak performance.
Thomas: Hitotsu is a gifted three-year-old. He went from 1600m to 2500m to win the VRC Derby last spring and is attempting something similar here off his first-up Australian Guineas win. He’s the best horse in the race but the heavy track is the unknown. Regal Lion and Benaud were both powering to the line in the Tulloch Stakes on Monday and that stands them in good stead. Castlereagh Kid races on the speed and that might work to his advantage in these conditions.
RACE 8: TJ SMITH (1200m)
Nature Strip
Dufficy: He’s a champion sprinter, he’s had the perfect preparation and is ready to make it three TJ Smith Stakes in succession.
Thomas: Nature Strip tends to race at his best at his third and fourth runs each preparation so the timing is right for him to win a third TJ Smith Stakes. He is the horse to beat.
Eduardo
Dufficy: He’s a tough, little sprinter. He poured the pressure on and beat Nature Strip at his own game in the Challenge Stakes last start. Although he hasn’t won over the Randwick 1200m I’m not holding that against him.
Thomas: Eduardo will lead with Nature Strip probably sitting outside him. This will set the race up for another thrilling showdown between these two. If Eduardo gets control up front, he will be very hard to run down.
Masked Crusader
Dufficy: Fitter for two runs back, loves this track and distance, and his only run on a heavy 10 he was narrowly beaten so he should handle the conditions.
Thomas: Masked Crusader is going to win one of these major sprints one day – and it could be today. He excels at the Randwick 1200m and will be charging home.
Zoutori
Dufficy: Blinkers are off and he’s talented on his day but needs to improve.
Thomas: Zoutori ran fourth in this race last year but I don’t think he is going as well this time. He hasn’t won a race around a bend for three years.
Count De Rupee:
Dufficy: Good horse but probably the wet track will be against him.
Thomas: He’s very effective between 1400m and 1600m but some of these sprinters will be too slick over the 1200m.
Shelby Sixtysix
Dufficy: What a story it has been so far. He’s an absolute swimmer but the question mark I have is can he do it at 1200m. I think they will have to overdo it up front for him to get his chance.
Thomas: “Shelby” has got everyone talking this autumn. With the track a bottomless heavy 10, he is not out of this contest.
Rule Of Law
Dufficy: He didn’t have a lot of luck in The Galaxy. He has done a great job but prefer a few others.
Thomas: Rule Of Law has raced very well over an extended campaign before his Galaxy effort when nothing went right. Place chance.
Roch ‘N’ Horse
Dufficy: I don’t know what to think of her. She won the Newmarket Handicap at $101 but I want to see him do it again.
Thomas: She was on the right side of the straight track in the Newmarket and ran good time. She has never struck a heavy track and it would be an even bigger upset if she won this race.
Overpass
Dufficy: Under-rated three-year-old, should camp on the two favourites and has the last look at them. I have to include him.
Thomas: Overpass is a very talented colt. He will get the run of the race and it’s worth remembering he defeated Forbidden Love and Anamoe in the Expressway Stakes earlier this autumn.
Belluci Babe
Dufficy: Gutsy little mare, she has been giving her all of late. She is very fit and a place chance.
Thomas: She’s been up a while but is holding her form. This is a different level again and weight-for-age doesn’t suit her.
Paulele
Dufficy: It was a total forgive run going a mile back from the wide draw in The Galaxy. He is much better at 1200m and is capable of surprising. He’s a good colt.
Thomas: Paulele has loads of talent and is blessed with brilliant acceleration but that speed is dulled on the heavy track.
Summary
Dufficy: I have to go with the third-up form of Nature Strip, Ray. Chris Waller will have him peaking on the day for The Championships and he can make it three wins in this race. I think Nature Strip is ready to rumble. Eduardo will be a tough nut to crack. He beat Nature Strip at his own game last start but is yet to win over the Randwick 1200m. Masked Crusader is fitter for two runs back, he loves this course and distance, and it was an enormous run finishing second in this race last year. He might be the forgotten horse. Overpass is an underrated three-year-old, he will camp on these two favourites and if they overdo it, he will have last look at them.
Thomas: Nature Strip, Masked Crusader and Eduardo ran 1,2,3 in the TJ Smith Stakes and The Everest last year and I think it will be a similar result here. I’m also with Nature Strip as I’ve no doubt he will be at his best for this race. Masked Crusader is going to win one of these major sprints one day. Eduardo is such a competitor and can win this if things go his way during the race. At weight-for-age, Shelby Sixtysix isn’t as well suited but he gets the wet track he needs to bring him into the contest.
RACE 9: DONCASTER MILE (1600m)
Cascadian
Dufficy: He is always a knockout chance, he needs luck but he’s fit, he likes the Randwick mile and the wet is no problem.
Thomas: Cascadian is a real warrior and is up 3kg on his Doncaster win last year. He gets James McDonald and is very capable of winning again.
I’m Thunderstruck.
Dufficy: I think he is ready for a peak performance here. It wasn’t run to suit him in the All-Star Mile last start but he was very good running second to Zaaki. I think he is one of the bets of the day even though this is a Doncaster because he presents so well.
Thomas: This is a good horse. If I’m Thunderstruck handles the heavy track, then he will be hard out. He was outstanding winning the Golden Eagle last spring and his All-Star Mile effort behind Zaaki indicates he is back to his best for the Doncaster.
Private Eye
Dufficy: Blinkers are going back on, typical Joe Pride style for the Grand Final. He is an Epsom winner at his only try over the track and distance, he is crying out for the mile and loves it wet.
Thomas: Private Eye will enjoy the genuine tempo and heavy track conditions. There was no fluke about his Epsom win last spring and both his lead-up runs this autumn have been ideal preparatory runs for the Doncaster.
Dalasan
Dufficy: He has been placed twice in the big Randwick miles but wish it was drier for him.
Thomas: Dalasan hasn’t won a race for two years but he has been competitive at the top level including his third placings in the Doncaster and Epsom last year. The very heavy track is not his preferred surface but he’s drawn to get every chance.
Lighthouse:
Dufficy: She is a good mare having an amazing preparation. The form out of her Coolmore win is good, she has a wide draw but has a good jockey to offset that gate.
Thomas: She has been under an injury cloud with a hoof problem in the last couple of days. If she gets the all-clear to run, this mare will be hard to beat.
Laws Of Indices
Dufficy: I like this horse; he is the best longshot. I wish it was a little drier but he was terrific running third in the George Ryder when ridden closer. From his draw he gets the right run and has a good winning chance.
Thomas: He’s got talent as indicated by his fifth in the Golden Eagle last spring and his recent effort in the Ryder. He’s well drawn and is a definite each way contender.
Ellsberg
Dufficy: He won’t know himself dropping 7kg here, he is ready to go and should be right around the mark from his perfect draw.
Thomas: Ellsberg is a definite winning chance. He was dominant first-up in the Liverpool City Cup then tried hard when a close second in the Ajax Stakes. He invariably improves third-up, has good tactical speed and will enjoy the run of the race.
Inspirational Girl
Dufficy: Good mare not suited by the tempo last start. She did beat Zaaki prior to that and is hard to knock although the wet track is a mystery for her.
Thomas: She’s never struck a heavy track but got through the soft 6 well when she ran down Zaaki in the Blamey. Another good chance at odds.
Hungry Heart
Dufficy: As soon as she finds a dry track, I am going to back her.
Thomas: Top class mare but unlikely she will run given the heavy 10 track rating.
Icebath
Dufficy: She is going to have a lot of supporters because some of her efforts on very heavy tracks has been very good. She had excuses last start and is among the chances.
Thomas: Icebath has been forgotten in the lead-up to the Doncaster. She was beaten in the last stride by Cascadian in this race last year, returned to win The Invitation during spring and she handles heavy tracks.
Sky Lab
Dufficy: He might just be a fresh miler. He does no work from his inside draw and has a knockout chance around $81.
Thomas: I have Sky Lab as the best outsider. He was just beaten by Mo’unga in the Rosehill Guineas last season, ran second to Think It Over in the Craven Plate last spring, his three runs back have been good and his at ridiculous odds of $81.
Kissonallforcheeks
Dufficy: Loved her win at Flemington, she is a top-class mare but unknown in the wet.
Thomas: Talented Perth mare who has been competitive at Group 1 level but her ability to handle the heavy track is a concern.
Numerian
Dufficy: Nothing wrong with his first-up run, the stable can produce one on the day particularly with these imported horses. I’m not saying no at the odds.
Thomas: There is a quiet push for Numerian, who did beat Sir Dragonet on a heavy track in Ireland. Each-way chance.
Hilal
Dufficy: He was disappointing on a heavy 9 in the Ryder but he wasn’t bad on the Randwick heavy prior in the Guineas. I prefer others but he is a three-year-old that might be forgotten.
Thomas: Hilal was very good behind Converge and Anamoe in the Randwick Guineas but was disappointing in the Ryder. He’s a promising colt with a very good record at Randwick.
Brutality
Dufficy: Blinkers back on, good wet-tracker, backing up from Monday, he’s a Villiers winner, good place chance.
Thomas: Brutality is attempting to become the first horse since Wedding Day (1917) to win the Villiers Stakes-Doncaster Mile double in the same season. Solid effort at Newcastle on Monday, will enjoy the heavy track and rates as a good lightweight chance.
Forbidden Love
Dufficy: In-form mare having a great preparation although everything has been falling into place for her. In the Doncaster there might be more pressure than what she is used to and that is the question mark I have against her.
Thomas: Forbidden Love is in the form of her life and is the deserved Doncaster favourite after Group 1 wins in the Canterbury Stakes and George Ryder Stakes. She drops 7kg to only 50kg and is a real mudlark. The one to beat.
Just Folk
Dufficy: I don’t know whether he is good enough but he loves heavy tracks, won the Ajax Stakes and has trialled really well since. He does have tactical speed so he could win this race.
Thomas: He’s a real trier as he showed running down Ellsberg in the Ajax Stakes. A superior wet-tracker and definite lightweight hope.
Kiku
Dufficy: She backs up from Monday where she ran well. Awkward draw so she has a bit to do here.
Thomas: Kiku has been placed in the Ajax Stakes and Emancipation Stakes which is the right form for the Doncaster. She’s proven on heavy tracks and $51 is generous odds.
Mr Brightside
Dufficy: His soft form is good and he could stride across from his outside barrier here. He has been a big firmer this week, $26 into $15, so there must be a good tip for him.
Thomas: Mr Brightside was narrowly beaten when fourth in the Cantala Stakes last spring and he’s in similar form this campaign just missing the placings in the Blamey Stakes and All-Star Mile. Drops 9kg and is not out of it.
Converge
Dufficy: He is ready to take on the older horses here. He has a perfect draw, tags up in the first four or five here and must be among the best chances.
Thomas: I’ve got Converge on top. He comes off a 2000m effort when second to super colt Anamoe after beating him in the Randwick Guineas over the Doncaster course. Drawn a soft gate, handles heavy tracks, racing in great form at the top level and has only 49.5kg!
Emergencies
Bankers Choice
Dufficy: He was good at weight-for-age last time, the stable is airborne, no knock with his lightweight.
Thomas: He ran well in the Ryder without much luck and the wetter the better for him. He’s not the roughest, that’s for sure.
King Magnus
Dufficy: He is better off in a faster race but he does love these conditions.
Thomas: King Magnus does enjoy very heavy tracks but it would be a huge upset if he won a Doncaster.
Ironclad: Scratched
Our Playboy
Dufficy: The heavy 10 is in his favour so he has a place chance.
Thomas: Our Playboy loomed up to win the Prelude on Monday but was outgunned by a defiant Mr Mozart. Good wet-tracker and could sneak into the minor money.
Summary
Dufficy: I am very confident with I’m Thunderstruck. This has been a target race for him and he is coming off a very good second in the All-Star Mile when things didn’t fall into place for him. I think he is the winner. Laws Of Indices is the danger at big odds. Loved the improvement when ridden closer last start, Ellsberg will be ridden closer and that gives him a good chance dropping a lot in weight here. I can’t leave the three-year-old Converge out. Even though it is a Doncaster Mile I am confident with I’m Thunderstruck.
Thomas: Converge, a dual Group 1 winner including his Randwick Guineas win over the Doncaster course and distance, handles heavy tracks, he’s perfectly drawn and has only 49.5kg. He’s got a lot in his favour. Forbidden Love has excelled on the heavy tracks this autumn and drops 7kg to 50kg from her dominant George Ryder Stakes win. Ellsberg is another superior wet-tracker, is well-weighted, drawn to get every chance and is effective over the Randwick mile. I’m Thunderstruck charged home behind Zaaki last start and I can understand, Ronnie, why you are so confident about his chances.
RACE 10: PJ BELL STAKES (1200m)
Dufficy: This is an impossible race. I’ve settled on A Very Fine Red. Her trainer Mark Newnham has her set up well for this race, back to the trials after a very good first-up run. She is ready and sure to run well. Zapateo comes out of the same race and is ready for 1200m, she maps better than most. Smirnova interests me at good odds. She was a certainty beaten first-up at Moonee Valley and last start she was up in class and ran well. She has quality about her. With more speed in the race, I would have tipped Me Me Lagarde.
Thomas: I’m also in A Very Fine Red’s corner. The Mazu form is very good and she showed first-up she can get through heavy going. Smirnova is a promising filly and she will be very hard to beat. Me Me Lagarde has no wet track form but she does have loads of ability. Mallory finished in front of A Very Fine Red two starts back, she ran an even race at Rosehill but has drawn right off the track here.
SUGGESTED BETS
Shayne O’Cass’ top picks
GOULBURN
BEST BET
Race 2, No.7: MONOMAKH
Godolphin filly by Astern on debut. Finished seventh of eight and fifth of eight in her trials but unhurried and close-up each time. Go well.
NEXT BEST
Race 8, No.2: HIGHBALLER
Ran a big race when third in the Provincial-Midway Qualifier at Goulburn on March 11. was third in a high calibre Class 1 there before that.
VALUE BET
Race 3, No.6: WASSERMAN
Chris Waller-trained Lonhro city-placegetter resuming off a pair of encouraging trials. Will be back in town again soon enough.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 4,5,8
Race 6: 2,7,11
Race 7: 1,2,3
Race 8: 1,2
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Christian Reith is going to be short odds to win the TAB Jockeys Challenge provided all of his mounts show up.
GUNNEDAH
BEST BET
Race 3, No.2: RAWORTH BOY
Gave a good account of himself on debut at Scone recently. Better for the experience and has the required talent.
NEXT BEST
Race 2, No.11: VELVET LADY
Has run well in better races than this one, Won’t get too many better opportunities.
VALUE BET
Race 7, No.12: STREETS OF SUEMORI
Only won three from 43 but two of them were on a Heavy track. Can certainly play a role in this.
Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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