Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
Ron Dufficy thinks tough Queensland galloper Emerald Kingdom can assert his class while Ray Thomas is banking on Hilal to catch a winning wave in the Bondi Stakes.
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The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances at Royal Randwick and the Cox Plate at The Valley on another Super Saturday of horse racing.
The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!
SUGGESTED BETS
DUFF’S BEST
Race 5, No.1: EMERALD KINGDOM
NEXT BEST
Race 7, No.3: ZEYREK
BEST VALUE
Race 2, No.2: KITZBUHEL
RAY’S BEST
Race 8, No.1: HILAL
NEXT BEST
Rac 9, No.6: ENTRIVIERE
BEST VALUE
Race 3, No.2: MAZU
RACE 1: KIRKHAM PLATE (1000M)
Ron Dufficy: I like the two-year-old with race experience, Contemporary. He did more than enough down the straight there at Flemington when he was narrowly beaten as favourite. With the benefit of that run and with a good draw, he should be hard to beat. Secret Revolution looks a talent. He did everything right and moved beautifully in his trial. Queen Of The Ball comes out of the same trial and was unextended on the line so expect her to run well. Snitcat was well-tried in the Gimcrack Stakes and had no luck running into dead ends. She is another with race experience and a good draw.
Ray Thomas:Contemporary ran well on debut at Flemington and can only be improved by the experience. I liked his trial leading into this race and he is the one to beat. Secret Revolution looks a natural two-year-old and is sure to run well. I’ve also got Snitcat in my numbers and there is stable confidence around Shalatin suggesting he will be competitive.
RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1800M)
Dufficy: I’m pretty confident with Kitzbuhel. He is a strong, on-pace stayer, inside draw and will roll forward making his own luck. I think he can outstay them. Foodie King is the danger. Not many missed his run last start when he had no lucky. If he runs up to that effort from a better draw, he will certainly be in contention. Whatsin had a legitimate excuse last start when he was slow out and had to settle back in the field. If he can hold a position early, he will run a better race. So Say You looks well-weighted and has been tough all the way through in his grade.
Thomas:So Say You didn’t have much luck last start but still ran on very well late. The extra distance is in her favour and she is ready to win. Kitzbuhel looms as the danger because he will be up on speed giving them something to chase. Lord Desanimaux was strong through the line over 1600m last start and only has to hold his form to be hard to beat again. Freedom Square is first emergency but if he gets a run, he is good enough to be in the finish.
RACE 3: BRIAN CROWLEY STAKES (1200M)
Dufficy:Able Willie looks a really good talent. He was very strong winning on debut; he has been back to the trials when he was kept under a hold and is a real prospect. The danger could well be his stablemate Zarastro. He ran well on debut behind Paulele and has had nearly a year off since but I loved his recent trials. He’s a yard and market watch. Mazu hasn’t gone to the heights I thought he would go this spring but this is a nice race for him back in grade. Anagain might be a long shot. His latest trial on Monday under a hold was impressive and he showed promise last preparation.
Thomas: I want to be with Mazu. I’ve always liked this horse but he does plenty wrong in his race. I’m banking on the pacifiers working and he doesn’t over-race. Able Willie comes out of a midweek maiden straight to stakes grade and is a short-priced favourite but he could not have been more impressive on debut. Zarastro is resuming after a long spell but is talented and the under-rated Battleton deserves his chance at this level.
RACE 4: MIDWAY HANDICAP (1200M)
Dufficy:Air To Air has run out of her class for most of her career and all of a sudden she is resuming in a benchmark 72 Midway. She has been absolutely airborne in her trials and with any luck she wins. Media Starguest is the danger. He has been given a very easy time of it in two trials and has been very good fresh in the past. I’m expecting a big finish from him. Oxford Tycoon pulled up lame and had excuses last start and he was a little unlucky at his previous run. He has been freshened and if at his best is certainly well placed. Saquon caught the eye when racing without luck but finishing very strongly last start.
Thomas:Pandora Blue is a good each-way chance. She led throughout and bolted in at Port Macquarie last start and has won three of her only five starts. Emerging mare and will run well again. Air To Air gets back in her races and needs luck in running but if she gets a clear crack at them, she will be hard to hold out. Oxford Tycoon puts himself into the contest early and this looks a good race for him. Undeniable is racing in good form.
RACE 5: FILANTE HANDICAP (1400M)
Dufficy: Bet of the day here in Emerald Kingdom. He was beaten by a very good horse first-up in Apache Chase at Eagle Farm first-up, he had very good carnival form in Brisbane during winter and he is lethal second-up. Exoboom is the danger. He is ready to improve third-up and at his best distance. Yamazaki can be a little hot and cold but some of her runs shape up well for a race like this. I keep making excuses for Prime Star but he could run into a place here. I’ve been worried by Criaderas’s trials but we know he has the talent.
Thomas: It’s hard to tip against Emerald Kingdom. As you mentioned Ronnie, he has very good form in some strong races and his second-up record is outstanding. Criaderas hasn’t set the world on fire at the trials but if he is anywhere near his best, he can win this race. Prime Star and Exoboom are both smart young horses in races to suit.
RACE 6: GEYER HANDICAP (1600M)
Dufficy:Shibli is an improving Chris Waller-trained import who has turned the corner this spring and goes into this race in winning form. He landed some nice bets when surging through the line last start and will be hard to beat. I’m interested in Sammy as I thought he went okay in the Silver Eagle. He will relish stepping up to the mile. Ma And Pa is another well-bred Waller-trained galloper who has a tough, on-pace racing style. Mayfair Spirit might be getting his act together now after a solid midweek win.
Thomas:French Bonnet impressed with an easy win at the Warwick Farm midweeks second-up and although this is a harder race, she drops 4kg and is good value. Ma And Pa is also coming out of the provincials and midweeks where he has strung together three successive wins. Improving type who will be in front for a long way. Shibli is in great form and I also expect Sammy to be very competitive.
RACE 7: CITY TATTERSALLS CLUB CUP (2400M)
Dufficy: I’m pretty keen on Zeyrek. He was terrific in The Metropolitan and this is a perfect race for him. He is hitting his peak at the right time and Team Hawkes has won this race with some promising stayers in the past. Hush Writer went well last start considering how hard he went out and the dry track is what he needs. Carif should be rock-hard fit now after contesting the St Leger last week and he will be in the finish.
Thomas: Zeyrek worked home well in The Metropolitan to just miss a place and if he holds that form then he should win. Promising import improving with every run under Team Hawkes. Carif is a tough, seasoned stayer and he should make a race of it with Zeyrek. Achiever peaks now and he did run well in the Queensland Derby earlier this year. Cepheus gets the dry track he needs and will be competitive.
RACE 8: BONDI STAKES (1600M)
Dufficy: A bit of a guess for me here with Cotehele. There was good money for him last start but I felt he was too fresh sitting outside the lead. I think he will be better third-up taking a sit with cover and you will see an improved run. Hilal got to 1500m and found form in the Stan Fox Stakes but I want to see him put two good runs together. Coastwatch started favourite in the Stan Fox Stakes and wasn’t disgraced going down narrowly but he has an awkward draw. Dufresne might be the new kid on the block just out of maiden class but he is a horse on the improve.
Thomas: Hilal finished strongly to run down Coastwatch in the Stan Fox Stakes over 1500m last start. Talented colt who was just beaten by Captivant in the Champagne Stakes over the Randwick 1600m course earlier this year. Hilal is well placed at set weights and is the one to beat. Royalzel is an under-rated colt who has been freshened since his Golden Rose failure when he had excuses and he can run well at odds. Coastwatch is very consistent and Dufresne is an improver.
RACE 9: THE INVITATION (1400M)
Dufficy: This is a competitive race with some good longshots. I’m locked into Icebath. I thought we would get rain and I’m more nervous now but she is a classy mare. She should have fought out the Epsom finish and if she gets any luck from the outside barrier, she will be hard to beat. Vangelic makes her own luck out in front and that’s her greatest asset. I’ve got no knock on Entriviere at all, she is a terrific mare but also has an awkward draw and will need luck early slotting in. A good longhost in a very competitive race is Madam Rouge. She has had a month between runs and a trial which is a typical Waller set-up for a big race.
Thomas:Entriviere was very impressive first-up in the Sheraco Stakes then had to defy the pattern of the day and still nearly ran down the leaders in the Golden Pendant last start. Her trial between runs showed she is right on target for this race. The one to beat. Icebath finished right alongside Entriviree in the Golden Pendant then had no luck in the Epsom. She’s bursting to win a race. Tricky Gal charged home to finish an unlucky second when resuming and watch for Nudge charging home.
RACE 10: SOUTHERN CROSS GROUP HCP (1200M)
Dufficy: Surely Gravina will get a change of luck. He should have beaten Big Parade last start and that form has been franked. I’m not sold on barrier one and would have liked him to have more room with the rail out 8m but he is the best horse in the race. Kinloch is the big improver. He is a nice horse totally unsuited by the slowly run race last start. With only 52kg Kinloch is a threat. Belluci Babe is a nice mare but has to tick the 1200m box. Electric Girl is an under-rated mare and a place chance at odds.
Thomas: Gravina’s two runs back have been very good and this looks his race. Only needs to get some clear galloping room from the turn and he should win. Belluci Babe is a promising mare who doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Quantico will be finishing fast and I also rate Kinloch highly.
THE VALLEY
RACE 9: COX PLATE (2040M)
Dufficy: I’m with Anamoe. I just feel he is a brilliant colt. I know he has to go back from the awkward draw but he has a very good turn of speed. He’s a Caulfield Guineas winner who hasn’t done much wrong and I don’t think this is a vintage Cox Plate. The danger is Verry Elleegant, she is the forgotten horse in the field. She could easily bounce back. Zaaki will be rolling along on the speed and I want to be forgiving of his last run. The other three-year-old, Captivant looks the value. He was not far off Anamoe in the Caulfield Guineas and three-year-olds who race on speed in Cox Plates usually run well.
Thomas: Zaaki resented being held up at Caulfield but with regular jockey James McDonald back in the saddle, he will be ridden more aggressively in the Cox Plate. Zaaki likes to get going early and dominate his rivals. Verry Elleegant will be stalking Zaaki and if she gets close enough to him on the turn, she will be hard to hold out. Anamoe is an outstanding three-year-old and Mo’unga is another who excels under pressure.
SATURDAY EXTRA
BEST BETS WITH SHAYNE O’CASS
KEMBLA GRANGE
BEST BET
Race 1, No.5: SACRIMONY
Son of Per Incanto - the sire of Lost And Running - racing in the same silks as it happens. More importantly, this one has trialled like a handy horse.
NEXT BEST
Race 3, No.5: KOKORO
Raced like a ‘miler’ when he finished fourth at Newcastle on debut as the 6/4 fav. Stick with him, he has talent.
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.7: BLACK QUEEN
Windsor Park owned daughter of Mongolian Khan who should break the maiden here given her last start was a third to Dusfresne in town.
QUADDIE
Race 5: 7
Race 6: 5,8,12,14
Race 7: 1,3,10
Race 8: 4,5,11,12
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Grant ‘Bucko’ Buckley is a red-hot chance in the TAB Jockeys Challenge (before any scratchings on raceday)
ALBURY
BEST BET
Race 2, No.11: MELADIA
Mitcheel Beer owned /trained mare who has placed at four of her nine starts including a P/B here on Oct 8 when a fast finishing runner-up.
NEXT BEST
Race 3, No.5: SUMDEEL
Been good without winning in her three runs this preparation. Getting to the mile is the key to a well earned victory.
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.2: ALBERT THE CAT
Just finished right over the top of the others when he won his Class 1 here on October 8. Lightly-raced and can be reliable.
ARMIDALE
BEST BET
Race 3, No.8: WANDA BEACH
Remains winless after 23 starts but she has placed eight times. Better still, she has placed at four of five here at home.
NEXT BEST
Race 1, No.6: BELBAROO
Has raced 20 times for four thirds but she is nearly always thereabouts and that last start third was behind Freedom Square. Is this the day?
VALUE BET
Race 5, No.2: SEDGEMOOR
Darley-bred gelding who is back to a Bm50 after a decent enough showing in a Bm58 here last start. Go better this time.
Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis
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