Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ron Dufficy has liked what he has seen from Le Gai Soleil in her barrier trials and feels she represents good value while Ray Thomas is keen on Yiyi to break through.

La Gai Soleil looks a great chance in the final event at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Grant Guy

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse each race at an outstanding Apollo Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S VALUE BETS

Race 8, No.6: RIODINI

Race 10, No.8: LE GAI SOLEIL

RAY’S BEST

Race 5, No.2: YIYI

NEXT BEST

Race 9, No.14: PROMISE OF SUCCESS

VALUE BET

RACE 10, No.10: BOUND TO WIN

RACE 1: COOLMORE PIERRO PLATE (1100m)

Ron Dufficy: There is a big boom on this colt, Metallicity, and he’s already been backed in Golden Slipper betting. He is coming off three lovely barrier trial wins and it is expected he will be hard to beat. The fillies have been dominant so far this season so I would suggest they are the dangers. Mumbai Jewel could be a big improver as she was on the wrong part of the track against the bias in the Widden Stakes. Magic Carpet looked very sharp winning a recent Hawkesbury trial and Miss Faberge showed really good improvement at her first trial back finishing second to the Inglis Millennium winner Xtravagant Star.

Ray Thomas: Metallicity has looked very impressive winning three barrier trials. He’s in the right stable with Peter and Paul Snowden who are having a great season with their two-year-olds, and I think he can get his Golden Slipper campaign off to a winning start. Flashing Steel has shaped well at his only two starts and will be competitive here. Northern Beaches worked to the line nicely at his debut and is an improver. Sandpaper showed good desire to win at Canterbury and is another with upside.

RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY (1800m)

Dufficy: This is a typical, wide-open Highway. I’m with Highlights here, particularly if the track is rain-affected. He scored easily last start and could go right on with the job. Racketeering was a month between runs second-up when he was very good late and the timing looks right. Lord Desanimaux doesn’t win often but continues to race consistently and is ready for this distance now. Still In Fashion is busting to win a race and is very well weighted here dropping 9.5kg.

Thomas: I’m leaning to Still In Fashion for that very reason, Ronnie, the huge drop in weight. He shouldered 62kg at Scone and didn’t shirk his task racing on speed and going under narrowly to Vanbari. Still In Fashion drops to 52.5kg here and will run the 1800m right out. I’ve also found Highlights and Racketeering as both are racing well. Smooth Esprit has scored easy wins at his last two starts and although this is tougher, he’s right in the mix again.

Casino Kid can handle the step up in distance at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3: BISLEY WORKWEAR HCP (2400m)

Dufficy: Toughest race of the day with queries at 2400m with a few of these. Casino Kid is one of them but he is racing in career-best form, he relaxes well and will get every opportunity to run the distance right out. Outlandos was very good at the Gold Coast over this trip and will be hard to beat if he reproduces that effort. Fun Fact has a massive weight but is the class horse of the field and on the map he gets complete control up front. Fortified gets to this distance pretty quickly but he was good at 2400m at the end of last preparation.

Thomas: Couldn’t agree more with your assessment of Casino Kid. He is racing in a rich vein of form and he gets in with 54.5kg after the claim. The 2400m is the concern but he’s very fit, his confidence is up and this is the time to try him at the distance. Fortified has only had the two runs back from a spell but he’s a tough, improving stayer. Outlandos ran on well behind Navy Cross in the Subzero at Magic Millions which puts him right into this contest. Greek Hero is going well enough but 2400m stretches his stamina reserves.

RACE 4: MIDWAY HCP (1000m)

Dufficy: This is a very fast race with the two favourites, Delexo and Capital Reign, very quick so I am gambling on Mabel. She might be the one sitting off them having the last look. She has been very impressive finishing strongly to win at Muswellbrook and Tamworth, and is a filly on the improve. In saying that, Delexo is very sharp, he’s had the two trials and will be hard to beat from the good draw. Capital Reign is back to 1000m which is ideal. Esteemed Lady had form around Delexo last preparation and is next pick.

Thomas: I’ve gone with Capital Reign over Delexo. They are both very sharp sprinters but Capital Reign will have taken benefit from his solid first-up second to Silent Impact over 1100m here when he was run down near the line. Back to 1000m suits. Delexo showed sprinting talent when last in work including a win on the Kensington track in brilliant time. His trials have been good and he’s seems ready to go. Esteemed Lady tried hard when resuming and is a genuine mare. I can see where you are coming from with Mabel, she will be charging to the line.

Yiyi is ready to peak third-up and get back to winning form. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 5: GEORGE MULLEN FAREWELL MILE (1600m)

Dufficy: I think Yiyi might be able to turn the tables on Wairere Falls, Ray. He is third-up now and should be at the top of his game, and he is 1.5kg better off at the weights. The very consistent Wairere Falls got home off a lovely ride last start and is right in the mix again. Off Shaw is ready for the mile third-up dropping in weight and has a beautiful racing style. O’Mudgee will be the one steaming home and prefers the jar out of the track.

Thomas: I’m staying with Yiyi, too. He is a model of consistency and third-up here he is ready to win. The Randwick mile is ideal and on a tough program, I have him bet of the day. Canasta is racing well without winning and will give them something to chase again. Wairere Falls pounced on Yiyi late at Rosehill over 1500m and will be stalking his stablemate again. O’Mudgee is an honest mare and should also be running on.

RACE 6: SOUTHERN CROSS STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: The key to this race is weather-related. Given a dry track I feel King Of Sparta has a fitness edge on a few here, he has a beautiful draw, and everything sets up for him perfectly with the speed up front, back in distance is not an issue and he will be hard enough to beat. Lost And Running has had two cosy trials, he went from strength to strength at the end of last preparation but I just doubt if he is fully wound up for this race. Laws Of Indices is a really nice horse but it is a matter of whether he is sharp enough for 1200m although he deserves a lot of respect as he starts his second Australian preparation. Overpass is an underrated three-year-old who has obviously returned very well and will be competitive again.

Thomas: King Of Sparta was outstanding winning the Magic Millions Guineas. He’s a top-class young sprinter but prefers racing on a track rated in the good range. Lost And Running ended his spring with a dominant win in The Hunter. He’s got 61kg but has the class and talent. Overpass might have been helped by the track bias at Rosehill but his Expressway Stakes win was still a very good effort. Under-rated three-year-old and gets an opportunity to prove last start was no fluke. Embracer has been trialling brilliantly and will be in this contest for a long way.

King Of Sparta has a fitness edge on some of his rivals and can go back-to-back. Picture: Trackside Photography

RACE 7: TAB LIGHT FINGERS STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: It’s been a long time since there has been a boom on a horse like there is with this filly Espiona. She is under the odds but is the name on everyone’s lips and is very hard to oppose. Jamaea had no luck at all on the Gold Coast, but she has a terrific sprint, she’s trialled nicely since and has a fitness edge especially if the favourite makes a mistake. I was taken by Zouzarella’s trial, she showed brilliance last preparation and is one to watch. Fangirl showed her class when she got to a mile last spring and although she might be in stablemate Espiona’s shadow she might not be when they get out over further.

Thomas: Espiona has looked something else in her two wins last spring, including her ridiculously easy win in a stakes race at Flemington. Her trial when a close third to Wild Ruler and Nature Strip recently was a good indication of how well she is going. Espiona is clearly the one to beat. Four Moves Ahead is a top-class filly resuming, her trials have been sharp and she wears blinkers for the first time. I’m expecting Fangirl and Jamaea to be finishing fast late in the race.

RACE 8: THE AGENCY APOLLO STAKES (1400m)

Dufficy: I quite like Riodini here. He looks trained right up off his two good trials, he gets complete control up front and will give them an awful fright. Think It Over is an iron horse, he never lets his supporters down. I expect he will roll forward and tough it out again. Maximal is a quality horse with some terrific overseas formlines. It’s just a matter of how forward he is but he has so much upside. Icebath could be the forgotten horse, she is a terrific mare and can sprint off any tempo, she has more acceleration than most here.

Thomas: Think It Over was unlucky when resuming in the Winx Stakes over this course and distance last spring and that set him up for a great campaign. He was untouchable at 2000m last time in work but he does sprint well fresh, excels at Randwick and handles the jar out of the track. Icebath is the danger. She is an outstanding mare with a good first-up record and handles all track conditions. Verry Elleegant is a champion and although she is coming off a Melbourne Cup win, she is capable first-up at 1400m. Special Reward is in career-best form and over the odds.

Think It Over can resume with a win in the Apollo Stakes. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 9: TRISCAY STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m pretty confident with Promise Of Success. I know she is coming out of benchmark 78 class but she couldn’t be trialling any better and will shape up to these with her lightweight. Mirra Vision came of age last preparation and her trial was good. She’s a definite knockout chance. Snapdancer sets up well after winning the mares race on the Gold Coast and should still be at her peak being only third-up. Fituese hasn’t won at 1200m she also has a fitness edge.

Thomas: I’m also in Promise Of Success’ corner. She is a very talented mare stepping out in stakes grade for the first time but she will measure up. Her trials have been eye-catching and she’s ready to win, Snapdancer was brilliant on the Gold Coast and she has the fitness edge. She will be hard to beat. Mirra Vision came of age last spring and her recent trial when third to Riodini was very good. The unbeaten It’s Me is resuming off a long spell but has loads of talent and seems forward enough to run well.

RACE 10: SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HCP (1300M)

Dufficy: I’ve been very taken with Le Gai Soleil’s trials. She won first-up last campaign and if she runs up to her trials, I feel she can overcome the outside draw and get the money at odds. If it is a dry track Invinciano has a terrific hope. She was very good first-up and drops in class. Bound To Win is trialling well and is a talented mare. She’s All Class is a query. She wasn’t herself last campaign and is a yard and market watch.

Thomas: Bound To Win hasn’t raced for 10 months but she seems trained right up at the trials, including an impressive heat win at Randwick about two weeks ago. There’s been good money for her since the barrier draw and she’s well weighted. Plenty of dangers including Le Gai Soleil who will go back from her wide gate but will be finishing fast. If She’s All Class is anywhere near her best, she could win this and Mokulua probably finds this a touch short but watch for her hitting the line.

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 6, No.5: CRIME SPREE

Barnstorming finisher who could be a real chance in a Guineas, Tulloch or a Derby somewhere this season. Sounds crazy but he is untapped.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No.6: STORMY LEGEND

Great grandson of November Rain; this Les Bridge-trained gelding ran a huge race in town over 1400m last start - gets to 1600m.

VALUE BET

Race 4, No.5: EXPLOITIVE

Capitalist/Atmospherical filly in the Widden colours making her debut off a sound third in what was a deep trial at Warwick Farm albeit four weeks ago now. Market the best guide.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,6

Race 6: 5

Race 7: 4,6,9.10

Race 8: 8,9

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Andrew Adkins has some fantastic rides at Newcastle. None of them better - long term, than Snowden gelding Crime Spree.

GRAFTON

BEST BET

Race 2, No.7: WHATEVER I SAY

Pierro son of Universal Queen who turned in a fantastic ‘debut’ when having his first run for Paul Shailer on New Year’s Day. Trialled like a bomb since.

NEXT BEST

Race 5, No.4: TAIKUN TOMMY

Won two races, both of them have been here at the home track including that near to last first win 11-days ago. Worth sticking with.

VALUE BET

Race 7, No.12: KAPSALI

Lightly-raced son of More Than Ready who has impressed at all four starts for varying degrees. never more than that compelling maiden win here last time out.

SAPPHIRE COAST

BEST BET

Race 1, No.7: SUPERDINI

Theresa Bateup-trained filly who is entitled to be both very short odds and win this wafer thin maiden. Been here before and ran well on debut.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.1: LOOSE WIRE

Only won 3 from 34 but has finished a close runner-up at her last two starts. Unlikely she’s been in many more winnable races than this one.

VALUE BET

Race 3, No.2: STELLA SIREN

Danny Williams mare who has run some good races against better horses than what she meets here. Draw probably not as bad as it looks on paper.

Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis