Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Ron Dufficy is confident Brookspire can get the money second-up while Ray Thomas is keen on Snapdancer first-up in the Razor Sharp.

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the chances on a bumper 10-race Villiers Stakes meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

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SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 10, No.5: BROOKSPIRE

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.3: MEDIA STARGUEST

BEST VALUE

Race 9, No.3: MUBARIZ

RAY’S BEST

Race 7, No.10: SNAPDANCER

NEXT BEST

Race 3, No.2: DRAGONSTONE

VALUE BET

Race 8, No.14: CRIADERAS

RACE 1: TAB HIGHWAY (1000m)

Ron Dufficy: I’m hoping the fourth emergency, Miss Ostend, gets a run here because she can win. She is a three-year-old filly with the right formlines and will find a good spot from her favourable draw. This is not a strong Highway and I think this filly has them covered. The danger is Midsummer Rain. Obviously, there was a problem at her only run last preparation but her two recent trials have been really nice and she will be hard to hold out. London Gal won with authority on a wet track at Gundagai last start and must be considered. Casino Lord is back in distance which is not ideal but he really caught the eye charging home when resuming.

Ray Thomas: London Gal made a mess of her rivals at Gundagai, winning by a big margin on a heavy track. Improving mare rewarded for her consistency last start and she will go close here from her favourable barrier. I’m also wary of Casino Lord but wish this race was a touch further for him. Midsummer Rain has ability and can sprint well fresh. We have the same top four but in a different order, Ronnie, as I also have Miss Ostend in my numbers if she gains a start.

RACE 2: MIDWAY HCP (1600m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on Media Starguest. This is a perfect set-up for him back in grade with the claim, the soft conditions which he enjoys and his home track so he will be very hard to beat. Travest is an awkward horse with plenty of talent but he gets to his pet distance third-up and has to be considered. Remus is a lightly raced four-year-old who was good first-up and gets in light here. Best of the rest is Trust The Process who had some support second-up and could be an improver.

Thomas: This race sets up well for Travest. He ran very well at Kembla Grange and out to 1600m will suit. He’s ready to win. Media Starguest is another bursting to win a race after his good second at Rosehill last start. Both Travest and Media Starguest appreciate soft-heavy tracks. Of the others, Monegal will be running on well and is not without a chance, while Heza Gentleman is racing in very good form.

Promising gelding Bacchanalia (left) looks hard to beat again. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 3: CELLARBATIONS HCP (1100m)

Dufficy:Bacchanalia for me, Ray. He is better than a benchmark 72 horse and got the job done well second-up with improvement to come. Dragonstone is the obvious danger. He was always in control first-up although this is trickier from the draw which is the reason I am leaning to Bacchanalia. Lady Of Luxury has turned the corner this campaign and is racing with confidence. Tiny has had a nice trial since a solid last start effort.

Thomas:Dragonstone was very impressive at Kembla Grange, unleashing an impressive burst of acceleration to put his rivals away and run fast time in deteriorating track conditions. Promising sprinter and 1100m at Randwick will suit him. There is not much between the Godolphin duo, Bacchanalia and Tiny. Both are racing well and should be very competitive again. The best outsider is Resilient Star ran well first-up and can only improve.

RACE 4: CHRISTMAS CUP (2400m)

Dufficy: The most reliable horse in this field is Mightybeel, he always puts in. I know this is his first try at 2400m and he is up 5kg but I am finding it hard to get away from him. Herman Hesse has had five weeks and a trial between runs, he is up in grade but gets some nice weight relief. The Victorian, Lion’s Share has been racing well of late, all her wins have been on soft or heavy tracks and she can stay. Skymax’s best form would go close here but he has been a bit off the boil lately.

Thomas: I’m going wide here with Deniliquin. He is eligible for much easier races but his last two starts are indicative of a stayer with promise. He stormed home to win at Gosford then got held up at a vital stage before charging through late to just miss at Newcastle over 2300m on a heavy track. He drops 5kg here and can run a race at big odds. Herman Hesse is a tough, resolute stayer and is the one to beat. Mightybeel does not know how to run a bad race but is paying the price for his consistency at the handicaps. Skymax is suited here and can run a much-improved race.

Mightybeel can give the Christmas Cup a shake. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 5: INGLIS NURSERY (1000m)

Dufficy: I think the best quinella of the day is the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained pair, Boldinho and El Padrino, I’m leaning to Boldinho who impressed covering ground and just missing in fast time behind the promising Ebhaar at Caulfield and that has to be the right form for this race. It depends on how wet this track gets because if it is very heavy then El Padrino could be the last man standing. I loved the way he charged to the line on debut, it wasn’t as strong a race as his stablemate contested but he has a bit of substance about him. Athletica backed up a good trial effort by winning on debut at Newcastle. Calgary Stampede looks a professional type but he needs a bit to go right for him from that wide draw.

Thomas: This is an open race with many chances. I’m leaning to Valspar as I really liked what I saw from him in a Canterbury barrier trial. He extended nicely late after being ridden from behind. He’s going to need luck from his inside draw but expect him to be finishing fast. Calgary Stampede is also going to need luck from his wide barrier but was impressive on debut at Rosehill and has race experience on his side. Boldinho ran really well at Caulfield on debut and is right in this race. Athletica was always in control at Newcastle and will be in this race for a long way.

RACE 6: ACY SECURITIES HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: The Maher-Eustace stable could be in for a good day as I am keen on Incredulous Dream. I thought she went very well first-up in a race that wasn’t run to suit. She has had a freshen up since and should be in the finish. Irish Angel relished the conditions winning with her head on her chest when resuming. She is underrated. Blazing Miss is very well graded. She has a wet track win over this track and distance, had no luck at all in a stakes race last start and can run well. Exotic Ruby is up in grade now but is well weighted.

Thomas: I don’t mind Exotic Ruby at the odds. She’s a genuine mare back in winning form and she does get in well at the weights after the claim. Cloudy, a dual stakes winner, was left in front at Rosehill when resuming and did well to hold on for third to Irish Angel. She will strip fitter and is another worth consideration as a value runner. No knock on either Incredulous Dream or Irish Angel. They were both very good first-up and will be hard to beat.

Exotic Ruby looks a good chance at odds. Picture: Grant Guy

RACE 7: RAZOR SHARP HCP (1200m)

Dufficy:Snapdancer, also from the Maher-Eustace stable, is on top here. She has had three trials but they have been holding her back with the Magic Millions in mind. The wet track is her only query as she has never been tried in it but being by Choisir she should handle it. Eleven Eleven did a great job back in distance second-up. The only query is he is yet to place in five Randwick runs. Edison closed with good late sectionals over an unsuitable distance first-up and is a knockout chance. Dawn Passage interests me. If it is not too wet then I like him back in distance. He has been above himself in condition and I am wary of him. Southern Lad is fifth pick but I have to forgive him at Rosehill as he has a poor second-up record.

Thomas: I’ve made Snapdancer my best for the day. Talented mare who is very effective fresh and her trials suggest she has returned in great order. I take your point about her lack of exposure to wet tracks but her two recent trials were on soft and heavy tracks and she seemed to handle those conditions with ease. Eleven Eleven did unleash a powerful burst to win The Warra at Kembla Grange and he always seems to strike form this time of the year. Dream Circle was unlucky first-up and he could surprise here. I’ve also got Dawn Passage in my numbers. At his best, he would win this race.

RACE 8: VILLIERS STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: The Villiers is a deeper race than I first thought with a lot of good longshots but in saying that, it is weather related. If we get a soft 6 or worse then I want to be with Brutality. I know he has to back up three weeks running but they went too slow for him Saturday with his big weight and his sectionals were good enough. Steely is the danger. He continues to jump the bar and is underrated. He should get the perfect run from his good draw. This has been a target race for Criaderas. I know he is hardly the punters pal but if he gets a swoopers track that is all he needs to be hard to hold out. Stockman is the other one but whether he is still fresh enough for the mile now that he has had a 1500m run is the query.

Thomas:Criaderas is a nightmare horse for punters because of his costly racing pattern but I do think he’s worth a gamble in the Villiers. Let’s cut to the chase, he will be back last and have 19 rivals in front of him at the 600m mark. But the tempo should be solid enough and I can see him unleashing his finishing sprint wide out. Ellsberg will look the winner at some straight and he is coming off a brilliant effort in the Festival Stakes. Stockman ran a blinder behind Ellsberg last start and he will be finishing fast late. Steely makes his own luck racing on speed and he’s tough under pressure. Bandersnatch won’t be far away and if the track improves, then I Am Superman comes right into the race.

Mubariz can follow a solid first-up run with a win at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 9: CATANACH’S HCP (1600m)

Dufficy: I was impressed with the first-up performance of Mubariz. He did enough coming down the wrong part of the track in a strong race, he won second-up last preparation and with the claim he is the value runner. Lackeen was terrific winning first-up over the Cup Carnival at Flemington then he might have been a little flat last start and is worth another chance. Equation is clearly better on soft tracks and has conditions to suit again. Zegalo is better than what we saw when resuming.

Thomas:Equation is bursting to win a race. He has taken a while to find his form but his improvement has been noticeable in his last two starts, particularly his second to Steely at Kembla last start. He has the right form for this and as you pointed out, Ronnie, it seems he needs a soft track to show his best. Lackeen is drawn to get all the favours, Caesars Palace is a good lightweight chance, and Mubariz will be running on.

RACE 10: QUAYCLEAN HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: Brookspire is the bet of the day. I think she is a good mare, she’s talented, and was terrific first-up in a race not run to suit. She gets to 1400m and will be awfully hard to beat from barrier one. Petronius is a big improver. All his wins have been second-up at 1400m. He’s the best roughie. Dynamic Impact looks a different horse winning his two runs back and he has to be in the mix again. I will throw in Blesk who doesn’t want it too wet, soft 6 at worst, but he sets up well from a good draw.

Thomas: I’ve got to stay with Dynamic Impact. He has lived up to his name with impressive wins at both his starts this campaign and he’s a sprinter in the right zone at the moment. Black Duke ran unbelievable sectionals last week and is a definite each way chance. Brookspire looks very hard to beat and Petronius is fitter and will run well.

Brookspire looks hard to beat from a good draw at Randwick on Saturday. Picture: Getty Images

SATURDAY EXTRA

Best bets with Shayne O’Cass

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

Race 3, No.3: TWILIGHT AFFAIR

Four-year-old Zoustar mare on debut off the back of three trials win a second dating back two years but looks above-average.

NEXT BEST

Race 6, No.8: SILVINCBLE

Progressive grey son of I Am Invincible who is on an upward trajectory. Gets to 1500m here which is key. Go well.

VALUE BET

Race 1, No.8: RED CARD

Cleverly-named filly out of a mare called penalty. Racy type, she is the first Australasian runner for her sire, Ribchester. Sure to run well.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1,4,9

Race 5: 5

Race 6: 4,8

Race 7: 4,7,8

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Winona Costin is having a huge season; the former Champion Sydney Apprentice is the State's leading female rider by wins and handily placed in the NSW Top Ten Jockey’s ladder.

COFFS HARBOUR

BEST BEST

Race 4, No.4: SALTY RAIN

Only won twice in 24 starts but one of those rare wins was at this venue. Gets back, runs on, likes it wet.

NEXT BEST

Race 1, No.1: NOT TAKING IT

Placed at four of her seven runs, three of them have been seconds including one here. Will handle the heavy going.

VALUE BET

Race 2, No.2: HYPERTENSION

Locally trained gelding still searching for that elusive first win after 16 unsuccessful attempts. Still, he has placed seven times and races well at home.

ALBURY

BEST BET

Race 7, No.4: HALO WARRIOR

Donna Scott’s 2022 Provincial Championship hopeful - one of them anyway - and should acquit himself well here at home as he always does.

NEXT BEST

Race 1, No.2: BALEDON

Looks ready to earn some reward for effort this campaign having gone close when he last raced here at home seven-days ago.

VALUE BET

Race 2, No.1: WISE DRAGON

Another local, this Mitchell Beer-trained son of Fiorente has finished first, second or third at every one of his last six starts including twice here (from three runs).

Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis