Raceday focus: Ray Thomas previews Murwillumbah and Queanbeyan

INVINCIBLE Tammy found one better last start but can rebound at Murwillumbah for a breakthrough win when she meets a similar field on Tuesday.

Jockey Brenton Avdulla riding Bronzed Venom wins Race 4, the TAB Highway Handicap, during the Spring Champion Stakes Day at Randwick Racecourse in Sydney, Saturday, October 7, 2017. (AAP Image/Craig Golding) NO ARCHIVING, EDITORIAL USE ONLY

INVINCIBLE Tammy just found one better last start but can rebound at Murwillumbah for a breakthrough win when she meets a similar field on Tuesday.

Form analyst Ray Thomas says the three-year-old filly has showed genuine speed in her two starts and believes a good inside draw makes her an excellent chance.

Ray has rated her as his best bet for the day, with Flim Flam Man in opening race as his next best.

Murwillumbah

BEST BET: INVINCIBLE TAMMY (Race 2, No. 11)

She has been placed in successive Grafton starts since resuming, showing good speed in both to lead until well into the straight. Bumped into a smart type last start but looks perfectly placed to breakthrough on Tuesday.

NEXT BEST: FLIM FLAN MAN (Race 1, No. 3)

With two placings from four starts in his debut preparation, Flim Flan Man has the form to suggest he is the one to beat today. He was up on the speed throughout and was only narrowly beaten over 1006m at Grafton last start. He’s found himself in a very winnable race today.

TRAINER TO FOLLOW: MATTHEW DUNN

Always a force at his home track meeting and he has five good chances today, namely Ready For Danger (race 4) and Fear Factor (race 6).

Queanbeyan

BEST BET: TAKAHASHI (Race 1, No. 6)

Showed good ability to win her maiden on debut then very competitive when third at Scone in a class 1. Slightly easier race here and she should be able to control this race from in front. Should win.

NEXT BEST: BOND OF FAITH (Race 4, No. 3)

Fitter for two runs from a spell and indicated she was close to a win when she charged home late to just miss behind That’s Freedom over the Queanbeyan 1460m course last start. She doesn’t have a flattering winning strike-rate but she looks to have returned in very good order.

QUADDIE: 1st Leg: 1,3,4, 2nd leg: 2,8,12, 3rd leg: 1,2,12, 4th leg: 1,2,3,4

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW: BRODIE LOY

Has a powerful book of six rides including Catch The Culprit (race 4) and Battlescar (race 5).

MURWILLUMBAH

A lurking Danger

TRAINER Matthew Dunn, buoyed by preparing a TAB ­Highway trifecta at Randwick, is looking to continue his stable’s winning momentum at his home track on Tuesday.

Dunn has good chances in five Murwillumbah races, including Ready For Danger in the Class 2 Handicap (1530m).

The leading trainer is coming off a significant achievement at Randwick last Saturday when he won a record 12th TAB Highway and celebrated with a stable ­trifecta from Bronzed Venom, Cascata Rossa and Dia De Reyes.

Dunn said this trio, along with stablemates Zamex, Madame De Ban, Hay Now, Delightful Feeling and Count Cumani, have been nominated for the $200,000 TAB Anniversary Highway (1400m) at the Everest meeting on Saturday.

“I’m not sure if Dia De Reyes and Count Cumani will make the Anniversary Highway field,’’ Dunn said. “This is going to be a strong race but we have a few nice horses that hopefully will run well.’’

The Matthew Dunn-trained Bronzed Venom wins at Randwick last Saturday. Picture: AAP

At Murwillumbah, the Dunn-trained Ready For Danger is well placed, particularly now that boom bush sprinter Camillo is a scratching. There is one proviso.

Brenton Avdulla returns to scale after winning on Bronzed Venom at the weekend. Picture: Getty Images

“It depends which Ready For Danger turns up,’’ Dunn said.

“The two races he has won he has been really impressive but he put in a horror first-up this preparation then at Lismore last start he was a bit similar.

“But at Lismore, once he didn’t jump and go, it was always going to be hard to win from back where he was in the field.

“At his best, Ready For Danger is almost a Saturday Brisbane-class horse but at his worst he is a Gympie horse.

“I still don’t quite understand where those two bad runs have come from but he has worked well leading up to this race.

“He is hard to catch but if he turns up, and I think he will as he is at home, he should go close.’’

Dunn also thought Major Luck was close to breaking through in the Maiden Handicap over 1530m.

Major Luck has been unplaced in all six starts but his encouraging last-start fifth in a Gold Coast 1300m maiden has given Dunn confidence the gelding is working up to a win.

“He is one of the few horses that went slower with blinkers on,’’ he said. “So I took them off after a couple of runs for his Gold Coast start and he went well. I think the extra distance suits him (today).”

Dunn is also banking on an improved showing from Fear Factor in the Benchmark 55 Handicap (1200m), while Sunshine Bruce in the Maiden Plate (1010m) and first starter Black Vanilla, who lines up in the Fillies and Mares Maiden (1010m), complete the trainer’s Murwillumbah team.

QUEANBEYAN

Filly to give more seasoned brigade run for money

EMERGING three-year-old filly Takahashi can continue her rapid rise through the ranks when she takes on older horses on Tuesday.

Takahashi might be giving away age and experience to her five rivals in the Class 1 and Maiden Plate (1600m) but she has more upside than her more seasoned opponents.

The Edward O’Rourke-trained Takahashi has only been to the races twice for a debut win at Muswellbrook then a close third at Scone last start.

“Every jockey who rides Takahashi says she needs further, so the step up to the mile (today) should be perfect for her,’’ O’Rourke said.

“This race looks a bit easier than her last start at Scone, so if we can get another win under her belt then we will probably take her to the provincials next.

“We are just trying to teach her to win and give her some confidence.’’

Takahashi’s Muswellbrook debut gave O’Rourke his first win since taking out his trainer’s licence late last season.

“It was nice to get off the mark,’’ O’Rourke said.

“Takahashi has been an honest filly for me and it was good to get the ball rolling, particularly as the filly is raced by the Ingham family. So it was great to win for them.’’

O’Rourke also said he was taking juvenile colt Acquire to the races for the first time at Randwick on Saturday.

Acquire has shaped well in two barrier trials and is very well bred by leading stallion Sebring out of Miss Marielle, a smart mare who won the Craven Plate, one of the support races on The Everest program, and is the dam of Group 1 winner Peeping and Inglis Guineas winner France.

Local trainer Frank Cleary has two runners at the Queanbeyan meeting and they bookend the ­program.

The Arod takes on Takahashi in the opener, while That’s Freedom lines up in the Queanbeyan Cup Prelude (2000m).

“That’s Freedom won nicely last start but he is jumping from 1460m to 2000m,’’ Cleary said,.

“We are hoping to run him in the (Queanbeyan) Cup in a couple of weeks and he needs this 2000m race to toughen him up.

“In saying that, I have poured the work into him, he has trained on well and he won’t know himself carrying only 56.5kg.

“The Arod probably wants it further but he is going well enough and is not without a chance.’’

INSIDE MAIL with Ray Thomas

MURWILLUMBAH

Race 4

The scratching of topweight Camillo has left this race wide open now. 3. Ready For Danger looks the one to beat. He was disappointing at Lismore but after being a little slow to begin, he got back in the field and couldn’t get into the contest. If he reproduces his Ballina effort from two starts back he would win this race. 4. Pajados was well beaten by a rampant Red Braids at Port Macquarie but it was his best run this campaign. 2. Schopenhauer hasn’t been far away in recent runs and 5. Nelumbo is fitter now and didn’t have the best of luck at the Gold Coast.

BETTING STRATEGY: READY FOR DANGER TO WIN AND BOXED TRIFECTA 2,3,4,5

Race 5

4. Queen Of Kingston got across from a wide barrier to trail the leaders into the straight then finished her race off strongly to score over 1106m at Grafton. Slightly shorter trip here is not ideal but she is a determined mare drawn well. 5. Bebado won on debut at the Sunshine Coast last season then had excuses at Ipswich when resuming. He looks well placed here. 1. Tierrasanta showed promise in his debut race campaign but all those runs were on rain-affected tracks. 3. Cash ‘N’ Run is a speedy type who won well first-up last time in work.

BETTING STRATEGY: BOXED TRIFECTA 1,3,4,5

Race 6

2. Allena has been racing well in similar grade over the border and is better suited coming back to 1200m today after finding 1400m at the Sunshine Coast a touch too far. She has the gate speed to take full advantage of her inside gate. 4. Fear Factor didn’t race up to his trials when resuming at the Gold Coast but this is easier. 1. Cushy Number may need more racing while outsider 4. Rumeron will add value to your multiples.

BETTING STRATEGY: ALLENA TO WIN AND TAKE HER IN QUINELLAS WITH FEAR FACTOR

Race 7

I’m prepared to give 7. Joueur another chance. He is racing well but finding it very hard to win. At Grafton over 2370m he was worried out of it late but back to 2020m, he gets his chance. 8. Walk Of Shame finished along Joueur at Grafton and I also feel coming back in distance will suit. 3. Classy Ruby is getting to 2020m very quickly but she has ability and 3. Prince Albert did beat Joueur at Grafton although he would prefer it over further.

BETTING STRATEGY: JOUEUR EACH WAY

QUEANBEYAN

Race 4

The second-up effort of 3. Bond Of Faith was an eye-catcher. She hit the line hard to just miss over the Queanbeyan 1460m in similar grade and this looks a winnable race. She does get back in her races but only needs even luck in running to be in the finish. 1. Catch The Culprit won well at Moruya then didn’t measure up in a TAB Highway. Better placed today. Of the others, 4. All Time Mischief is very consistent and wasn’t beaten far last start and 6. Siandra is an improver.

BETTING STRATEGY: BOXED TRIFECTA 1, 3,4

Race 5

2. Battlescar showed good speed and was a clear leader into the straight before he ran out under pressure when third at his Australian debut over this trip. A senior jockey goes on today and he will strip fitter. 12. Go Joyce Go is a dual acceptor — he is also in race two where he looks the winner — and if he starts here, will make a race off it with Battlescar judging on his trial form. 8. Little Time Gem and 9. Rain Event are each way contenders.

BETTING STRATEGY: BATTLESCAR TO WIN

Race 6

I’m going with the speedy 2. Note Reve over the 900m course. She has been run down at her last two starts over 1100m and 1200m but this mare is a shortcourse specialist. From gate two, Notre Reve will be very hard to catch today. 3. Secret Image was wide on the turn but stormed down the centre to win by a widening margin over this trip. 12. Muzzleburst ran a blinder first-up and 5. Claradale Lass are definite chances.

BETTING STRATEGY: NOTRE REVE TO WIN

Race 7

4. D’Beak went to the front, dictated terms and was strong late winning by nearly a length over the 2000m Canberra course last start. This is a similar grade of race and there is no reason why he can’t go back-to-back. 3. That’s Freedom shouldered 61.5kg to win well over 1460m here two weeks ago and tumbles to 56kg but he is up sharply in grade and trip. 2. Standoubt had his chance to beat D’Beak last start and 1. Welcome Art was a beaten favourite in the Cootmundra Cup and is better placed here.

BETTING STRATEGY: BOXED TRIFECTA 1,2,3,4

Originally published as Raceday focus: Ray Thomas previews Murwillumbah and Queanbeyan