Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm

A lightly-raced three-year-old will appreciate a return to racing against his own age on track he has found success. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Trainer Mark Newnham has promising three-year-old in Stick To Your Guns who looks hard to beat at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

Daily Telegraph’s Racing Editor Ray Thomas gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Warwick Farm.

WARWICK FARM

BEST BET

Race 3, No.3: STICK TO YOUR GUNS

Stick To Your Guns scored with authority over 1200m on this track then tried hard when third in a class 1 at Kembla. He’s back racing against his own age here, handles rain-affected going and should be able to control the race from in front.

NEXT BEST

Race 1, No.3: ROBUSTO

Robusto might have had every chance when beaten into third placing as favourite when resuming at Canterbury but he still kept working to the line. He will be fitter for the turn, is bred to handle softer tracks and is worth another chance.

VALUE BET

Race 7, No.8: EYE SEE THINGS

Eye See Things is a very genuine mare, only missing a top three placing once in her last nine starts including her game first-up effort when narrowly beaten at Canterbury. She is very effective on soft and heavy tracks, drawn nicely and is good each way value.

QUADDIE

Race 4: 1,3,5,6

Race 5: 2,7,8,10

Race 6: 4,5,8

Race 7: 5,8,10,12

James McDonald has a great book of rides at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Champion jockey James McDonald has a powerful book of six rides including favourites Robusto (race 1), Paternal (race 3), Roots (race 5), and Brooks Battle (race 7).

TRAINER TO FOLLOW

John Thompson is sending two runners to Warwick Farm and both are good winning chances at value odds – Baranof (race 2) and Eye See Things (race 7).

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR WARWICK FARM

RACE 1

Robusto was beaten as a short-priced favourite when a first-up third to Sandpaper at Canterbury. He kept working to the line, didn’t shirk his task at any stage and can improve. The Churchill colt is bred and raced by the Ingham family and is a son of their former top mare, She’s Clean, a multiple stakes winner who won the Triscay Stakes on a heavy track. To His Credit makes his debut off an impressive Randwick barrier trial win where he showed natural speed to lead throughout. Affidavit is a strapping son of Frosted who has shaped promisingly in two trial wins but he did fail on a heavy track at his only start. A Lot More Love ran on well to finish just behind Robusto at Canterbury on debut and is an improver.

Bet: Robusto to win, watch betting moves to To His Credit

RACE 2

Baranof was held up for a couple of strides before diving through along the rails to finish second behind boom young sprinter Mars Mission at Warwick Farm last month. Fitter for that solid first-up effort, Baranof is drawn to get the run of the race and it is worth noting the four minor placings he has recorded in his nine-start career have all come on tracks rated in the soft range. Dalchini is an underrated filly. She has shown promise in each of her three starts and resumes off an impressive trial win at Rosehill. Godolphin filly Arbitration made a long, wide run at Wyong and finished powerfully to beat all but the speed Sirius Girl. Arbitration is out of a Commands mare so she is bred to handle the wet track but her wide barrier is a concern. Smart Little Miss ran well enough first-up to suggest she will be hard to beat here. Stromboli and Leen Fox are chances in an open race.

Bet: Baranof each way, saver on Dalchini at big odds

John Thompson prepares Baranof who looks a good each-way chance. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 3

Stick To Your Guns led throughout to win his maiden at Warwick Farm then carried a big weight against older horses at Kembla and held on well to finish third to French Emperor. Back to his own age here, gets the benefit of apprentice Tom Sherry’s 1.5kg claim, handles soft-heavy tracks and makes his own luck riding the pace. I’m very interested in the return of Benaud. Highly promising staying three-year-old and he will be charging home. All England really attacked the line to run down Taborca at Canterbury and looks an emerging type. Paternal’s debut win at Newcastle was very good and Moridan has the talent if he keeps his mind on the job.

Bet: Stick To Your Guns to win, Box trifecta 2,3,4,9

RACE 4

Don Arcangelo can stay and his last start effort when a close fourth at Canterbury is a good pointer for this race. The concern with Don Arcangelo is the track rating – he hasn’t won or been placed on a track rated worse than a Soft 5 so an improving track surface is vital. Just A Jedi wasn’t beaten far at Canterbury last start, he handles soft going and has won up to 2100m. Maid Of Ore was held up at a vital stage in the straight and should have finished much closer than fifth to My Demetra at Canterbury. Greek Hero has been racing well in stronger grade and although he is a query at the trip under 61kg, he has to be included in the main chances.

Bet: Box trifecta 1,3,5,6

RACE 5

This is a deep race with a number of emerging horses including Beep Test. The lightly-raced daughter of All Too Hard showed ability during debut five-start preparation last year, winning twice at the provincials before a close third on the Kensington track prior to her spell. She has had two trials to prepare for her return including most recently when ridden out to beat Olympic Legend with the pair gapping their rivals. Beep Test seems primed for her comeback, has drawn well and is effective on rain-affected tracks. Promising filly Roots was stakes-placed last spring and resumes here after two easy trials. She looks hard to beat. Finally Realise is very genuine and Geo is trialling brilliantly.

Bet: Beep Test each way, watch market moves for Roots

Tommy Berry (pictured) partners Beep Test for trainer John O’Shea. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 6

Another tough race. Bethencourt is better over slightly further but the grey has looked very sharp in two recent barrier trials, has the ability to sprint well fresh and gets to race on a suitable soft track. Overlord, a winner at Gosford on a heavy track three starts back, did well to beat all but Marnix here two weeks ago and should be in the finish again. Jailbreak has been competitive in three runs on this track since resuming and his chances improve on a drying track. Café Royal has the most ability of any runner in this field but she has drawn right off the track.

Bet: Box trifecta 1,4,5,8

RACE 7

Eye See Things is invariably competitive in this grade and is almost always over the odds. She was very good first-up when narrowly beaten at Canterbury. Her soft-heavy track form is impressive and she is drawn to get every chance. Brooks Battle is resuming off a long spell but her trials have been encouraging and James McDonald is a significant booking. Sunborn is a handy mare resuming although she is probably better suited on a firmer track. Stormborn ran on from back in the field to just miss a place at Kensington last week and she won’t be far away again. Switched, Sanjomi and Passitas are chances in a competitive closer.

Bet: Eye See Things each way

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm