Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm

Kris Lees and Hugh Bowman are a dynamic duo and should reward their fans with a win in the last. BEST BETS, INSIDE MAIL

Trainer Kris Lees (right) and jockey Hugh Bowman look set to another victory together with Sequana at Warwick Farm on Wednesday. Picture: Getty Images

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Warwick Farm.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

BEST BET

Race 8, No.7: SEQUANA

Brings together ‘Team Mugatoo’. That’s Lees, Bowman and Australian Bloodstock. This daughter of Headwater is building up to a win. Could be her day.

NEXT BEST

Race 2, No.8: MYSTIC MERMAID

Sister to Avantage, who did owner Sir Owen Glenn proud with a neck second on debut at Wyong 13 days ago. Looks a talent.

BEST VALUE

Race 5, No.2: MONTABOT

All three wins on soft tracks. Best here was a third to Harpo Marx on a Heavy 8. Bowman is on.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 2

Race 6: 4

Race 7: 2,4,5,7,11

Race 8: 7

BEST EXOTIC

Quinella Race 2: No.1: Mnementh and No.2: Jerle

Hugh Bowman has a good book of rides and will be looking to bring up his 400th winner for Chris Waller. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Hugh Bowman is on 399 wins aboard Chris Waller-trained horses. Will The Grinder be 400?

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR WARWICK FARM

RACE 1

Espiona is a Chris Waller-trained filly out of a mare he knew well in Dahooil. She was handy, probably even above average. Espiona was purchased for $190,000 by Denise Martin at the Magic Millions last year. Now for the important bit, the three trials. Let’s shorthand it by saying good, better, best. Arranmore is another Martin/Waller production. This filly was runner-up to Bondi-bound Able Willie on debut. Nice. Lady Piaf was third in the same race.

Bet: Espiona to win; exacta 6 to beat 2

RACE 2

Mystic Mermaid is a sister to nine-time Group 1 winner Avantage, who was sold for $NZ4.1m the other day – a world record price for an online auction. Not bad for a $210,000 yearling. Chris Waller trains Mystic Mermaid for Sir Owen Glenn and both Kiwis would have been pleased with the filly’s debut run at Wyong. Podium ran above his starting price of $17 when he closed off rather well over 1200m, also at Wyong. Go well. Yagoona comes through the Able Willie race.

Bet: Mystic Mermaid to win

RACE 3

Jerle is third-up here and seems to be headed in the right direction given a last-start second at the Rosehill midweeker seven days ago. Has won just once in his 13 starts but he has placed eight times, which doesn’t guarantee him a medal here but he should be in the finish somewhere. Albury-trained gelding Mnementh comes back to town in the best possible shape – on a hat-trick. Harder here but by how much?

Bet: Jerle to win; quinella 1, 2

Jerle (left) is backing-up from a handy second last week. Picture: AAP Image

RACE 4

Grande Rumore has been the eye-catcher in her two runs back this preparation and in infinitely better races than this midweeker. The Kris Lees-trained mare zoomed home to finish fifth to Geist then did the same thing 21 days later, this time when a diminishing two and a half lengths behind Ellsberg no less. Prompt Prodigy has finished seventh, ninth and eighth heading into this but there has been hidden merit in those runs and don’t forget he was runner-up in the Group 2 Tulloch Stakes. Well worth a look.

The Grinder will be Hugh Bowman’s 400th winner for Chris Waller if he wins.

Bet: Grande Rumore to win; quinella 2, 6

RACE 5

Montabot is a French import who likes it soft and loves 2400m. He gets both here and two others things – home-track advantage and Hugh Bowman. His best run in Australia was on a heavy 8 and he ran third to Harpo Marx that day. German-bred gelding Arabolini has won five times and they are split between soft and heavy, so no issues there. You wouldn’t get a fitter horse than him and his pattern will ensure he gives a great sight for his backers, like always. Sound Of Cannons and Zudin are players.

Bet: Montabot each-way

RACE 6

Daralina Belle shares the second line of betting to win the inaugural The Four Pillars. She has come a long way in a short time, bearing in mind she was $31 when she won on debut at Goulburn. Amazing to think she is doing all this on her first preparation. We just don’t know her ceiling yet. Stablemate Majella probably needs it to be a good track to beat these. Expecting a bold first-up bid from Marc Conners’ underrated stayer Rebel Rama, who ran in a Group 1 Oaks at her last start. Big trial winner here eight days ago.

Bet: Daralina Belle to win

James McDonald rides the unbeaten Daralina Belle for trainer Matthew Smith. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7

Promotions has won or placed in slightly more than half his 25 starts. Another way of looking at him is that he has lost 23 times. The two things that drew him to me were his price and the fact he has raced at Warwick Farm three times for two seconds and a third. Godolphin stablemate Mollycoddle will have to chase down Promotions. That’s her pattern; sometimes she gets there, sometimes she doesn’t. Missile Heat is at home, third-up, no weight and a good draw.

Bet: Promotions each-way; Missile Heat to place

RACE 8

Sequana has been something of an eye-catcher in each of her three runs and, crucially, they were all on the Kensington, which isn’t always kind to horses with her style of racing. Good race this one but she’s bound to peak here. So much interest here in how the market plays Lady Brook. She is famously fast and seems to have no issues on soft. This will be her first run for Joe Pride. We will all know by now if barrier 1 is a blessing or a curse. Six Again and Sonnet Star are in the mix.

Bet: Sequana to win; box trifecta 1, 7, 11, 12

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, inside mail for Warwick Farm